VZCZCXRO8648
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1600 2351244
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231244Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8417
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1783
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1781
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1740
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JCS NMCC WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1744
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1785
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 9804

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001600 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; OES 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: WARM TEMPERATURES RAISE LAKE SAREZ'S WATER 
LEVEL 
 
REF: Dushanbe 1465 
 
¶1.  Two recent earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes in 
southern Tajikistan offered a bracing reminder that this 
mountainous country remains seismically very active (Reftel). 
In 1911, a strong earthquake rocked Tajikistan's Pamir 
mountains, triggering a massive landslide that created the Usoi 
Dam along the Murghob River and Lake Sarez.  The Usoi Dam is the 
largest naturally-formed dam in the world, holding in Lake 
Sarez's 17 cubic kilometers of water.  If the dam were to break, 
or an earthquake or landslide were to spill water over the dam, 
the result could be catastrophic flooding not only in 
Tajikistan, but also into Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and 
Afghanistan downstream.   PolOff and Regional Environment 
Officer met with the Ministry of Emergency Situation's Special 
Agency on Lake Sarez's Director Amin Husainov August 17 to 
review the status of Lake Sarez. 
 
¶2.  Director Husainov stated the situation remains very 
dangerous and that the Tajik government treats the problem very 
seriously.  The Agency briefs the government daily on the lake's 
water levels and any new or extraordinary activity.  The 
Government pays close attention, because an earthquake of the 
magnitude that created the lake occurs in the area every 80 to 
120 years.  Given that the earthquake that created the lake 
occurred 95 years ago, it is believed a similar earthquake could 
happen at any time.  In addition, most lakes created by such 
events are temporary and eventually disappear.  The lake's water 
level has risen substantially.  For the past ten years, the 
water level rose an average of ten centimeters annually, but a 
greater volume of snow melt from the Pamirs caused the Lake to 
rise a whopping 2.62 meters last year. 
 
¶3.  Experts have come to conflicting conclusions about the Usoi 
Dam's stability.  Some predict it is vulnerable to large 
earthquakes and will eventually break; others claim the dam is 
quite sturdy and Lake Sarez will remain a permanent geographical 
fixture in Tajikistan's landscape.  Most experts agree that 
although the dam might not instantly burst, in the event of a 
landslide or earthquake, large scale flooding would occur.  The 
Tajik government created the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project 
(LSRMP) with a $4.3 million budget jointly financed by the Tajik 
government and the donor community (including USAID) to assess 
the risks, develop early warning systems, and prepare local 
communities for a possible disaster.  The World Bank and Swiss 
government are the largest contributors to LSRMP.  An early 
warning system was finished in 2004.  The system should notify 
officials in Dushanbe and residents in the affected area within 
one minute of any irregular activity at the Usoi Dam or a change 
in Lake Sarez's water level.  Select residents in each village 
of the potentially flooded areas received emergency training and 
are equipped with communications radios. 
 
¶4.  The Uzbek government has expressed interest in developing an 
early warning system for its territory, but has not made any 
significant efforts to cooperate with Tajik authorities. 
Studies predict that if the Usoi Dam were to break completely, 
flood waters could spread as far as a 20-km width along the 
Uzbek plains and could be as high as twelve meters when it 
reached Uzbekistan.  The water would flood from the Pamirs down 
through the Bartang, Pyanj, and Amu Darya Rivers all the way to 
the Aral Sea.  Over two million people in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan 
and Turkmenistan, as well as the settlements and cities along 
the rivers, could be affected by flooding.  Such possible 
flooding poses not only an immediate danger to people's lives, 
but has longer term economic implications for agriculture and 
economic development. 
 
¶5.  COMMENT:  Lake Sarez is a natural wonder that could become a 
natural disaster with one good quake.  The Tajik authorities 
monitor the situation as best they can, but aside from early 
warning measures, already in place, and hopefully functional, 
there is little any government could do to prevent this 
disaster.  Because the most damage would be in Uzbekistan, 
Tashkent and Dushanbe would be well advised to cooperate on 
early warning systems.  END COMMENT. 
 
HUSHEK