VZCZCXRO0346
OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDM #4284 2431358
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 311358Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1316
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 1271
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0160

UNCLAS DAMASCUS 004284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/ELA 
NSC FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG ETRD PREL SY
SUBJECT: THE SARG PLAYS WITH THE POWER SWITCH TO LEBANON 
 
REF: 05 DAMASCUS 4675 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary. Though the SARG,s chronic electricity 
shortage has recently threatened to turn acute, its most 
recent cutoff of electricity to Lebanon appears to have been 
an attempt to remind the GOL that Syria holds the economic 
levers in the bilateral relationship.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) After a week-long suspension, the SARG restored 
electricity transmissions to Lebanon on August 25.  Syria 
currently supplies Lebanon with 100 to 140 megawatts of 
electricity through two transmission lines ) 110 megawatts 
to northern Lebanon via the Tartous-Deir Nabbouth 230 
kilovolt (KV) line, and 30 megawatts to the Baqa,a valley 
via the Dimas-Anjar 66 KV line.  Syria also exports 
electricity to Iraq and Jordon, but there is no evidence of 
any suspension of exports to either of these countries. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) This month,s outage was the fourth time in the 
last year that the SARG had cut electricity transmissions to 
Lebanon.  In September 2005, following months of 
negotiations, the SARG restored electricity transmissions to 
Lebanon after a suspension that followed the Syrian troop 
withdrawal months before (reftel).  The SARG again suspended 
electricity transmissions in October 2005, citing non-payment 
of an old debt as the reason, but the suspension was widely 
viewed here as part of the deteriorating bilateral relations 
associated with the Mehlis investigation and the run up to 
the UNSCR 1636. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The only apparent legitimate disruption happened in 
June 2006 when the SARG cut electricity to Lebanon for a 
third time for &technical reasons.8  The power was restored 
in a matter of days with little comment.  The latest power 
incident began on August 19, when a copy of a letter from the 
Syrian Director General of Power Generation and Transmission 
addressed to his Lebanese counterpart was published in a 
locally distributed Lebanese paper.  In his letter, the 
Director General stated that the SARG would stop electricity 
transmission to Lebanon for technical reasons.  The SARG 
initially blamed problems with transmissions from Egypt for 
the need to cut electricity to Lebanon only to change excuses 
when GOE officials denied the SARG assertion that the problem 
had anything to do with their network.  On August 23, the 
Syrian minister of electricity, Ahmad Ali, publicly announced 
electricity exports to Lebanon had been restored, claiming 
this time the interruption had to do with technical problems 
in the Syrian electricity grid. 
 
¶5.  (U) Although even our Syrian interlocutors discount the 
Minister,s explanation of the interruption, the SARG,s 
power sector is hamstrung by a number of chronic problems. 
First, production cannot keep up with demand, which is 
currently increasing at ten percent per year.  Second, there 
have been delays in bringing the new 750 megawatt power plant 
in Deir Ali on-line.  Additionally, four of Syria,s 13 power 
plants are currently off-line for maintenance and upgrades. 
This leaves Syria currently 750 megawatts short of demand, 
which has translated into increasingly frequent power outages 
of six to ten hours in various parts of the country, 
excluding Damascus. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment.  The SARG,s usually modest shortage of 
electricity has peaked recently giving its claim of 
&technical problems8 some basis.  It also has, however, a 
track record of using electricity exports as a political 
lever against Lebanon.  Most sources believe that the most 
recent suspension of electricity exports to Lebanon was a 
warning shot intended to remind the GOL there are potential 
economic costs for its present political course.  This 
reasoning certainly jibes with the SARG's repeated threats to 
close the Lebanese border if UNIFIL troops take up positions 
there. 
CORBIN