VZCZCXYZ0017
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1910/01 2371447
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 251447Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5676
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: IRAN; CUBA; ARGENTINE NUCLEAR PROGRAM; US-URUGUAYAN FTA; 
08/24/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's major international stories include the USG rejection of the 
Iranian government's proposal to resume multilateral nuclear talks 
without suspending its nuclear program; US Assistant Secretary for 
Latin American Affairs Thomas Shannon's statements about Cuba's 
transition; Argentina's new nuclear program; and the likelihood of 
an US-Uruguayan FTA. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Bush refuses to negotiate the future of Iran's nuclear plan" 
 
Leonardo Mindez, on special assignment in Washington for leading 
"Clarin," writes (08/24) "The USG rejected the Iranian government's 
proposal to resume multilateral talks on the presumption that Iran 
is not suspending its nuclear program. 
 
"This was conveyed by the US Department of State when announcing 
that Tehran 'fell short on the conditions set forth by the UN 
Security Council calling for a full and verifiable suspension of all 
uranium enrichment-related activities.' 
 
"... The Tehran government has repeated that its program is aimed at 
manufacturing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. However, 
Washington fears that Iran has started manufacturing a bomb. The UN 
Security Council gave an ultimatum to Tehran until next Thursday to 
suspend its nuclear program, but there is no sign that this is going 
to happen. 
 
"This is why, the US Department of State pointed out that it is 
consulting the other members of the UN Security Council in order to 
decide 'the next steps' to be taken, which could range from economic 
sanctions to the use of force. Nonetheless, while Bush is pressuring 
for tough measures, China and Russia insist on resuming talks." 
 
- "Washington believes that Cuba will be immersed in instability" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" reports (08/24) "The head of US diplomacy 
for Latin America, Thomas Shannon, warned yesterday that the 
transition in Cuba will be unstable and with an undefined structure 
of leadership. He also called on Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to 
use his ties with the Cuban government to promote democracy in the 
country. 
 
"... During a press conference at the Foreign Press Center in 
Washington, Shannon said 'This is a moment full of possibilities but 
also anxiety because a regime on the verge of transferring power, 
particularly in the case of a leader like Fidel, is inherently 
unstable. History tells us this, particularly in the case of 
Communist regimes.'" 
 
"However, the USG official said that 'if the Cuban government works 
on a transition to democracy, the White House will consider the 
possibility of deepening its ties with the island. In this regard, 
Shnnon reiterated that his proposal for a possible lifting of the 
embargo on Cuba remains pending, as long as the Cuban government 
starts a democratic transition." 
 
- "The US creates an office to spy on Cuba and Venezuela" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (08/24) "John Negroponte, the 
czar of US intelligence, created a special espionage office aimed at 
obtaining and analyzing intelligence information on Cuba and 
Venezuela, which are the two countries posing most challenges to the 
White House in Latin America. 
 
"The USG initiative is a tacit acknowledgment that it lacks reliable 
information on the two countries, and that this information is 
crucial for the White House now that Fidel Castro is leaving the 
scenario and Venezuelan presidential elections are getting closer... 
 
 
"Only two other countries have special intelligence offices under 
Negroponte's supervision - Iran and North Korea, the two remaining 
regimes with clear nuclear ambitions of what US President George W. 
Bush labeled the 'axis of evil' in 2003. The third one, Iraq, was 
invaded in 2003. 
 
"The initiative raised the ire of Havana and the Chavez 
administration, which defined it as a new attempt from Washington to 
destabilize them while it was praised by the top leaders of the Bush 
administration for Latin America between 2001 and 2005, Roger 
Noriega and Otto Reich. 
 
"According to Jesse Chacon, Minister of Interior and Justice, 
 
Venezuela could suspend the signature of a new deal against 
drug-trafficking with the White House. 
 
"... The US Assistant Secretary for Latin America, Tom Shannon said 
'This is part of our effort to better understand the relationship 
between Cuba and Venezuela but I cannot say much more about it.' The 
USG only added that, 'obviously,' Chavez and Castro supporters have 
a 'special relationship' and that it would be 'sad' that, after 
awaiting Castro's downfall for almost half a century, 'a State is 
getting ready to be an ally of a totalitarian regime.'" 
 
- "Argentina's new nuclear program - the country will again enrich 
uranium" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (08/24) "The 
(Argentine) Government has officially announced that it will resume 
its uranium enrichment-related activities. This also includes the 
completion of Atucha II, the extension of Embalse's useful life and 
the promotion of enriched uranium-related activities for the 
establishment of a strategic reserve of uranium in the country... 
 
"The plan was announced during a ceremony led by President Nestor 
Kirchner... 
 
"The political decision not to remain outside of the select group of 
countries that are vertically integrated in nuclear issues received 
support from the ambassadors from Brazil, Venezuela and Canada. 
 
"The greatest surprise for attendees was the decision to promote 
uranium enrichment-related activities, which were deactivated in the 
'90s. Even more than that, (Argentine Planning Minister Julio) de 
Vido emphasized the need for a strategic reserve of uranium as 
though the world could suffer conflicts due to the dearth of the 
product in the next years." 
 
- "Uruguay seeks consensus to negotiate an FTA with the US" 
 
Carlos Burgueo, columnist of business-financial "Ambito 
Financiero," writes (08/24) "Tabare Vazquez will speak with Lula in 
the next 72 hours to formally ask for his support to negotiate an 
FTA with the US in October. 
 
"In addition to this, Vazquez will tell Lula about the possibility 
that Mercosur agrees to a tariff reduction so that Chile and Mexico 
become Mercosur partners. 
 
"Sources from the Uruguayan Foreign Ministry asserted yesterday that 
Vazquez trusts that Mercosur will let him broaden his commercial 
ties with Washington. 
 
"... Beyond Uruguayan optimism, Brazil and Argentina's views are 
different. Brazilian FM Celso Amorim has already warned that an FTA 
between Uruguay and a country outside of Mercosur would not be 
possible in the framework of Mercosur. Argentine Secretary for 
Economic Integration Eduardo Sigal's statements were in the same 
direction. 
 
"Argentina and Brazil could back Uruguay in signing an FTA allowing 
its meat and dairy products to access US markets... This will be 
rejected by both major Mercosur partners... Argentina and Brazil do 
not want Uruguay to open its governmental purchases and services 
markets to the US or to negotiate new IPR legislation that is not 
aligned with the legislation of the rest of the bloc. 
 
"There are serious doubts in the bloc that the Bush administration 
could accept a deal of this nature for a South American country 
(along the lines the FTA between the US and Switzerland). The US 
maintains a strategy on the region of negotiating FTAs just like 
those in force in Mexico and Chile, or those to be signed with Peru, 
Colombia, Ecuador and five Central-American countries. 
 
"Parallel to this, on September 1, the Bush administration will 
remove Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela from its GSP. With these two 
actions, the US is reported to be seeking that South American 
countries reach an FTA or stay outside of any bilateral trade deal 
scheme." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA