VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1809/01 2231953
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111953Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5532
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001809 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST; US CHARGE MICHAEL MATERA'S STATEMENTS IN 
BUENOS AIRES ABOUT VENEZUELA AND ARGENTINA; US-ARGENTINE TIES; CUBA; 
US-URUGUAYAN FTA; IMF-ARGENTINA; GSP REVIEW; BOLIVIA; 08/10/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's most important international stories include the situation 
in the Middle East and the status of the US-French draft resolution; 
US Charge Matera's comments on Venezuela and Argentina during a 
seminar on US history in Buenos Aires; the status of US-Argentine 
ties; the Cuban political transition; the likelihood of an FTA 
between the US and Uruguay; the IMF review of Argentina's economy; 
the reaction of the US to President Kirchner's statements on GSP 
review; and the promise of a national pact in Bolivia. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Failure of the 'New Middle East'" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin" on 
special assignment in Jerusalem, writes (08/10) "Almost one month 
after the war started, it is possible to predict that Condoleezza 
Rice's announcement that everything is ready to build a 'New Middle 
East' perhaps will be fulfilled but not exactly as she thinks. 
 
"... The decision to raise the military stakes in Lebanon may bring 
Israel to a dangerous situation, just like that in which the US 
finds itself. The possibility of negotiations at the beginning of 
the conflict was aborted by the White House, which expected a fast 
Israeli victory...." 
 
"The face of a 'New Middle East' may be appearing but what it 
reveals, as pointed out by the prestigious magazine 'Atlantic 
Monthly,' is the collapse of the war on terror along the lines of 
the Bush administration's dogmatic-style war. 
 
"The real bet to break up this jigsaw puzzle should be intense 
diplomatic and humanitarian activity, and the definitive end of the 
military occupation in Iraq, as well as in the territories - the 
Golan Heights, in Syria, or Chebaa, in Lebanon. It may not be the 
only possible fate for the region, but it may be the only one that 
is feasible." 
 
- - "According to the US, the idea that Venezuela could enter the UN 
Security Council is 'imprudent and nonsensical'" 
 
Natasha Niebieskikwiat, political columnist of leading "Clarin," 
comments (08/10) "The Charge at the US Embassy, Michael Matera, 
pointed out that 'having Venezuela as a non-permanent member of the 
UN Security Council is "imprudent and nonsensical." Matera will lead 
the diplomatic mission until the new US Ambassador to Argentina, 
Earl Anthony Wayne, arrives in Buenos Aires. 
 
"According to Matera, the US has consulted on this issue with the 
Argentine Government and 'governments around the world.' The US 
diplomat gave a talk at a seminar on US history organized by the 
Fulbright Commission and San Andres University. He also answered 
questions from the journalists and professors attending the 
seminar. 
 
"Matera's statement acquires importance in the framework of 
Mercosur's support for President Hugo Chavez's aspirations to become 
a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2007-08. 
 
"Having press guidance on this week's news, the US diplomat also 
termed as 'erroneous' the claim that the GSP review will imply 
sanctions against Argentina and other countries for not coming to 
terms with the US on trade issues. 
 
"... Matera said that Argentina's economic recovery 'is very good 
news for all' and that Washington supported the country in its debt 
negotiations with the IMF. 
 
"When Matera was asked to give his opinion on President Kirchner's 
statements that the country no longer has 'carnal relations' with 
the US, Matera said that the US respects Argentina 'as a sovereign 
country.'" 
 
- "The White House does not respond to Kirchner" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (08/10) "Merged in 'hot 
situations' in the Middle East and Latin America, silence was the 
only official response of the USG to President Kirchner's statements 
about the possible reduction or loss of preferential tariff rates 
for Argentine imports accessing US markets...." 
 
"... The Bush administration is focused on the Venezuelan president, 
particularly due to his attempt to enter the UN Security Council in 
replacement of Argentina... 
 
 
 
"... A spokesperson of the US Department of State told 'La Nacion' 
that no authorized voice would respond to Kirchner's statements... 
 
"Argentine Ambassador to the US, Jose Octavio Bordon, dismissed that 
the announcement could be interpreted as a political 'sanction' 
against Argentina. However, according to a Southern Cone diplomat, 
'the tariff exemption is political and discretionary. It would not 
surprise me if it is part of a broader tradeoffs game, for example 
for the vote at the UN Security Council.' 
 
"US Assistant Secretary for Latin America, Tom Shannon, has used 
public silence as a strategy since he took over, in contrast to 
Roger Noriega, his predecessor. According to a high-ranking USG 
official, Argentina is 'an important challenge,' which fluctuates 
between close countries (Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico) and 
opposed countries (Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia), but, according to a 
Democratic strategist for the region, it is no longer considered a 
referring country." 
 
- "A test for the Argentine government at the Council of the 
Americas" 
 
Mariano Obarrio, political columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacion," 
writes (08/10) "The Kirchner administration will have today a 
crucial commitment to the US-Argentine bilateral relationship 
because three of its main ministers will lecture at the Council of 
the Americas business forum. All eyes will be placed on the tenor of 
their speeches. 
 
"...US-Argentine bilateral ties have cooled down following 
Kirchner's harsh criticism of the USG and Kirchner's closeness to 
the Venezuela of Hugo Chavez and the Bolivia of Evo Morales. 
 
"Meanwhile, three weeks ago, US Assistant Secretary for Latin 
America, Tom Shannon, suspended his trip to Argentina to participate 
in this forum, and Kirchner refrained from attending the 
presidential inaugurations in Peru and Colombia, two US allies. 
 
"... The Council will not make political statements. It praised 
Argentine economic growth, and political affairs will be turned over 
to the future US Ambassador to Argentina, Earl Anthony Wayne, who 
will take over in November. 
 
"Regarding the GSP review, US businessmen believe 'it is not 
retaliation against Argentina' but measures that are aimed at 
privileging and granting larger preferential tariff rates to those 
countries that supported WTO negotiations like Chile, Uruguay, Peru 
and Colombia." 
 
- "South America should help Cuba" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, 
professor of international relations at Universidad San Andres, who 
opines (08/10) "Regardless of how Fidel Castro's situation turns 
out..., it is obvious that Cuba's political transition has started. 
This fact is inevitable even if the governmental system adopted is 
the concentration of power in the hands of Raul Castro, a collective 
scheme, or Fidel's return to the government. 
 
"It is also obvious that transition will not necessarily have to be 
turbulent... 
 
"Today, Venezuela and its oil have become the equivalent of what 
used to be the Soviet Union's decisive support during the Cold 
War... The State of Florida has lost voice in US foreign policy on 
Cuba, and Washington cannot afford another international fiasco such 
as those in the Levante, the Persian Gulf and the Korean Peninsula. 
 
"In brief, we are witnessing a potential transformation of the 
regime rather than its inevitable abrupt end. 
 
"It is not advisable that the Cuban issue is solved by the use of 
force or through an aggressive US role, which could trigger chaos on 
the island and unpredictable consequences for Latin America and the 
US... 
 
"In this framework, South America's role could be crucial and 
positive. The future of Cuba is in the hands of Cubans and it may 
have an important contribution from South America, particularly the 
Southern Cone countries. 
 
"An ABC (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) axis could be developed... 
This is, three non-radical, self-proclaimed progressive governments 
could start deploying a sober and discreet diplomacy aimed at 
preventing the main leaders of this transition from adopting 
 
 
extremist positions. This diplomacy could also serve to open 
communication channels between the government and legitimate and 
sensible opponents and to avoid a polarization that could be induced 
from overseas." 
 
- "Uruguay makes progress on an FTA with the US (and distances 
itself from Mercosur" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (08/10) "Uruguayan 
President Tabare Vazquez pointed out that he is on the verge of 
starting negotiations for an FTA with the US. But he made a comment 
on it 'this does not necessary imply Uruguay's departure from 
Mercosur.' In this regard, he called the two main partners of the 
bloc to discuss an institutional way to make this possible. 
 
"During a conference entitled 'Uruguay in the global economy,' which 
was organized by the Americas Society and the Council of the 
Americas, Vazquez said 'our country has a commitment and a mandate 
to regional integration. However, Mercosur's status and outcome are 
unsatisfactory and worrisome.' 
 
"Vazquez said in front of DUSTR Everett Eissenstat 'that one who 
believes that commercial relations have to do with ideology is 
wrong.' Eissenstat remarked that 'ties between the US and Uruguay 
could not be better than they currently are.'" 
 
- "'Mercosur was not created to oppose the FTAA" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (08/f10) "Former 
Brazilian President Fernando Enrique Cardoso said that Mercosur 'has 
become more political and less integrationist.' He also questioned 
its anti-FTAA stance. 
 
"'This was neither Mercosur's primary idea nor the opinion I have. 
It was not conceived as an anti-FTAA institution but as a way of 
organization to hold better negotiations with the US and Europe.' In 
this way, the former president expressed his fear that the 
over-politicization of the bloc could lessen its true essence." 
 
- "IMF praises the Argentine recovery, but it criticizes the dollar 
value and exchange rates" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading 
"Clarin," comments (08/10) "Washington's praise for Argentina's 
economic recovery is usually accompanied nowadays by criticism of 
the Argentine Government's anti-inflation policy and warnings about 
the need for lowering public expenditure, raising interest rates and 
making the exchange rate more flexible. The IMF report reviewing the 
Argentine situation has not been an exception to this rule. 
 
"... While some IMF directors supported price control accords in the 
short run, most of them said that they had to be dismantled as soon 
as possible. 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "A foreign view" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" editorializes (08/10) "The Argentine 
government bluntly rejected the possibility that the US will push 
commercial sanctions for not coming to terms on the FTAA and WTO 
negotiations. 
 
"Vis-`-vis an eventual USG decision, the Argentine President bluntly 
defended the position of the country on foreign trade and he 
maintained that Argentina no longer has carnal relations with anyone 
and will not subject its own policies to any foreign decision... 
 
"It is not the first time the Argentine president clearly pointed 
out what the country's position is vis-`-vis the decisions to be 
made by powerful nations and multilateral lending agencies such as 
the IMF. Frictions have occurred at different moments of Argentine 
diplomatic relations with the Bush administration. 
 
"... Shortly after the president's statements, the US Embassy 
downplayed the tariff review by releasing a communiqu from USTR. It 
made clear that the issue will be debated on Capitol Hill and that 
GSP preferential tariff rates will likely be approved again, thereby 
downplaying the issue." 
 
- "Bolivia redefines its national pact" 
 
Leading "Clarin" editorializes (08/10) "The Constituting Assembly 
inaugurated in Bolivia is a historic milestone and a complex 
challenge adding up old social claims, confronted regional 
interests, conflicts with foreign investors and problems of 
 
 
governance. 
 
"Evo Morales took power by promising a new national pact based on 
new social and political representation. In the past, Bolivia was 
ruled by elites while its majority indigenous population was 
excluded from filling the highest positions in government. 
 
"... The arrival of indigenous and farm leaders to the government 
has allowed it to have broader political representation, and, 
therefore, larger legitimacy. The Constituting Assembly should now 
complement this change with large consensus among the different 
political sectors. 
 
"... The Government and political forces should now also bear in 
mind the important role played by Bolivian energy resources and 
should find a way to make progress on harmonious regional 
integration." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA