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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1765/01 2191941
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071941Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5478
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDLE EAST AND A DEAL FOR A CEASE FIRE; AMBASSADOR WAYNE; 
US-URUGUAYAN FTA; THE US AND LATIN AMERICA; CUBA; TRI-BORDER; WTO 
DOHA ROUND; 08/07/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend papers heavily cover the implications of the war in the 
Middle East and a US-French deal for a cease fire at the UN; a 
likely FTA between the US and Uruguay; current ties between the US 
and Latin America; the situation in Cuba; alleged support for 
terrorism at the Tri-border; and the aftermath of the WTO Doha 
Round. 
 
Leading "Clarin" reports on the upcoming post-graduate international 
seminar on US politics, culture and social movements organized by 
the Fulbright Committee and held at San Andres University. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "France and the US reach a deal at the UN for a cease fire" 
 
Maria Laura Avignolo, on special assignment in Beirut for leading 
"Clarin," writes (07/06) "France and the US agreed on a UN Security 
Council's draft resolution calling for a full ceasefire between 
Israel and Hezbollah... 
 
"Hezbollah's disarmament remains the focus of the problem and it is 
not being tackled in this draft resolution but in another one. 
Lebanon is not willing to humiliate Hezbollah through its 
disarmament, as demanded by the US, because it could trigger civil 
war in the country. 
 
"It is time for diplomacy to act but Lebanon warned that Israel may 
not get at the UN what it did not obtain in the field. This is why 
clashes and command operations will ferociously continue until there 
is a clear winner." 
 
- "Calculations" 
 
Telma Luzzani, international columnist of leading "Clarin," comments 
(08/06) "The drastic US change is amazing. Only last week, George W. 
Bush and Tony Blair disqualified the French proposal and excluded 
the term 'ceasefire' from their plan for the Middle East. 
 
"What happened, then? The Qana massacre, which occurred while 
Condoleezza Rice was in Jerusalem, increased world criticism of 
Israel and troubled the US. However, some other facts are indicating 
that it is smarter to put an end to this war. So far, the Israeli 
army has not obtained any of its military objectives. On the 
contrary, Hezbollah is in a position of exhibiting some victories. 
First, it demonstrated that it can attack Israel. Secondly, it 
questioned the myth that Israel is invincible. Third, and possibly 
the most worrying fact for the West, it is increasing its leader 
sheik Nasrallah's power among Muslims... This is why peace is 
required." 
 
- UN - The US seeks to remove support from Chavez" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (08/07) "The new US 
Ambassador to Argentina, Earl Anthony Wayne, will take over during 
the first days of November. 
 
"This means that the current US diplomat, Michael Matera (former 
Ambassador Lino Gutierrez's number two until just five days ago), 
will have time until September to convince Nestor Kirchner not to 
support Venezuela's candidacy for a seat at the UN Security Council 
and to support Guatemala instead. This is a pretty pointless 
mission, since the Argentine Government, just like the rest of 
Mercosur, will vote for Hugo Chavez... 
 
"Argentine Government officials have talked about some 
're-launching' of the US-Argentine bilateral ties, which were 
somewhat impaired after the Mar del Plata Summit of the Americas. 
 
"... According to the Argentine Government, the arrival of the new 
US diplomat is good news. The Foreign Ministry officials praise 
Wayne's professional profile and the fact that he is an expert in 
trade and economic negotiations, which is precisely what the 
Kirchner administration wants to reinforce. 
 
"... Argentine Foreign Ministry negotiators presented Wayne as an 
expert in the most important global negotiations that Argentina has 
ahead with the big economic blocs - mainly, a potential reduction of 
farm subsidies... Wayne tackled this issue on two different 
occasions - as US Assistant Secretary for European and Canadian 
Affairs and as US representative at the EU in Brussels... The only 
antecedent about Wayne's opinion regarding Argentina's trade problem 
is some comment he made on the issue in 2003. During a visit to the 
country as an envoy of the Bush administration, he defended the 
signature of a deal between the IMF and Argentina. He guaranteed 
 
 
that the US president would support a three-percent surplus on the 
GDP when the IMF was asking for more than 4 per cent, but, in 
return, Wayne insisted that the country should not abandon FTAA 
negotiations, which happened during the Mar del Plata SOA in 
November 2005. 
 
"Argentina also expects Wayne to pressure on another issue in which 
he is an expert - the defense of US corporations' IPR." 
 
- "A Uruguayan wink to the US" 
 
Leading "Clarin" reports (08/06) "Uruguayan Economy Minister Danilo 
Astori is getting ready to start holding a round of bilateral 
negotiations with USG officials with the purpose of paving the way 
for a possible FTA. 
 
"Astori pointed out that the purpose is to make progress on a 'broad 
FTA' and that during next week he will receive a group of USG 
officials to start negotiations. 
 
"The possible signature of an FTA between the US and Uruguay will 
probably put an end to a conflict among Mercosur partners. Brazilian 
FM Celso Amorim warned last month that 'a country may not be within 
Mercosur and negotiate bilateral deals with other countries.' 
 
"Beyond the irritation caused by the issue, Uruguayan President 
Tabare Vazquez asserted that the tension unleashed by an FTA will be 
solved in October." 
 
- "Castro, Chavez and the hatred of the Empire" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed story by political 
columnist Mariano Grondona, who opines (08/06) "... If hatred of the 
new empire tends to prevail in our region today by extolling 
dictators Castro and Chavez, this blinding passion may not only be 
attributed to the US President's unilateralism. Latin America itself 
should also be blamed for it because of its renowned 'theory of 
dependence,' according to which we are worse off because the US is 
better off. However, we should acknowledge that we should be blamed 
for our lack of development. 
 
"On the other hand, it is also true that a good number of Latin 
American countries follow neither Castro nor Chavez, but they 
silently hold an increasing number of successful trade associations 
with the new empire. 
 
"Then, hatred of the new empire, which may be so harmful, comes from 
concurring blames. With Bush, the US shows the unpleasant face of 
imperial Jano. Latin America finds in this unpleasant face the best 
excuse for its own shortfalls. Both blames together pose an 
extraordinary danger. With Bush, Americans run the risk of losing 
the world. With Castro, Chavez and their sympathizers, Latin America 
runs the risk of losing democracy." 
 
- "The US gets irritated with Mercosur due to its support for Chavez 
at the UN" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (08/05) "The purpose of supporting Venezuela at the UN 
Security Council, which was officially announced by Argentina and 
its Mercosur partners in the Statement of the Cordoba Summit, 
unleashed concern and irritation not only in the Bush administration 
but also among Democratic leaders. 
 
"Last week, Democratic representative Tom Lantos, Democratic leader 
at the House Foreign 
Relations Committee, sent a letter to President Nestor Kirchner and 
the other Mercosur leaders urging them not to support Venezuela's 
candidacy at the UN General Assembly. An unidentified legislative 
source told 'Clarin' that Lantos' letter wanted to make it quite 
clear that Chavez irritates both political parties in Washington. 
 
"... Actually, Venezuela's entry into Mercosur is more irritating 
from a political viewpoint rather than from an economic one. The US 
believes that if Venezuela enters the UN Security Council for the 
2007-08 period, it will hinder draft resolutions and statements 
proposed by US diplomacy, which call for consensus or unanimity to 
be approved. 
 
"... The problem of the US is that it has now much less influence on 
Argentina and Brazil to be in a position to threaten to veto its 
financial support at the IMF. Its pressure cannot be accompanied by 
some sort of economic sanction. This is why the US Department of 
State does everything it can to maintain a cordial relationship with 
the Argentine Government in spite of the fact that it disapproves of 
its alliance with Chavez." 
 
 
 
- "The US redoubles its pressure about Cuban elections" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (08/05) "The USG redoubled 
yesterday its pressure for Raul Castro and other figures of the 
regime to call free and democratic elections in Cuba, regardless of 
Fidel Castro's plans to sustain his regime on the island. 
 
"... Far from the rumors launched by Havana on the alleged 
preparations for a military invasion, the US is in an awkward 
position regarding some news it has awaited for more than 40 years - 
the US does not know what is happening with Fidel Castro, and 
everyone, even George W. Bush, are starting their vacations or 
election campaigns. 
 
"... The US' biggest challenge in its effort to influence Cuba's 
future is Hugo Chavez. According to Wayne Smyth, a former USG 
diplomat in Havana, who is now at the Center for International 
Politics in Washington, Hugo Chavez is interfering by giving aid to 
Cuba, and not only this, he is also forming an alliance with Cuba." 
 
- "The US - businessmen against the embargo" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (08/05) "The US business community has always been against 
the White House's embargo on Cuba and now more than ever. With the 
Cuban economy increasing by eight per cent (according to the CIA), 
and Raul Castro favoring the economy of the country just like China 
did, US businessmen do not want to lose the business that could be 
created and are closely monitoring the situation. 
 
"Tom Mouhsian, expert in Cuba at the powerful US Chamber of 
Commerce, told 'Clarin' 'We still do not know the direction Cuba 
will take, but we are obviously interested in the lifting of the 
embargo.'" 
 
- "The US - fearful similarities between the Middle East and Cuba" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by international analyst 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, who opines (08/05) "One of the most acute 
international features nowadays is that every time the US decides to 
dive into a new international crisis..., then the entire world has 
to find a way to get rid of the trick. 
 
"... To some extent, Lebanon has marked an additional paradox. 
Israel has never demonstrated its willingness to implement a special 
alliance with the US based on fears that this would lessen its 
autonomy. But now Olmert has taken the Israeli army to a position in 
which it no longer knows whether it is defending the nation or doing 
the dirty work of the 'Bush's revolution' in the region... 
 
"The problem now is that Bush is recommending carrying out a new 
mission in Cuba and that he believes, as some other times, that this 
divine dictate annuls the enforcement of the international 
legislation protecting the island's sovereignty and makes 
insignificant the price of merging another country into the kind of 
chaos that Washington identifies these days as 'delivery pains.'" 
 
- "The US again claims support for Hezbollah at the Tri-Border" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (08/05) "In view of the military escalation in the Middle 
East, the US is implementing new measures to prevent Hezbollah and 
other terrorist groups from being funded from the Tri-Border. 
 
"Daniel Glaser, US Treasury Assistant Secretary, 'We are fully 
convinced that this is the case.' 'We believe there is enough 
evidence.' 
 
"Among the measures that have been implemented, the Homeland 
Security Department sent Argentina a team of experts to train a 
'trade transparency unit.' This unit will gather and analyze 
information related to commercial transactions in search for 
irregularities that could hint money laundering operations. This 
will be carried out in spite of Argentine Interior Minister Anibal 
Fernandez's objections." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "The future of Cuba" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (08/07) "After having led 
a 47-year iron-handed dictatorship, Fidel Castro was made to 
delegate his power to his brother Raul... Some sectors envision the 
possibility that Castro will have to leave power forever in the not 
 
 
too distant future. 
 
"Those who fervently wish that Cuba will find a road or transition 
toward democracy admit that this possibility will not be an easy 
one... 
 
"However, the difficulties ahead should not discourage the people of 
Cuba, both those residing on the island and those who are exiles, 
from undertaking the so-long expected democratic reconstruction." 
 
- "Extremism and future in the Middle East" 
 
Leading "Clarin" editorializes (08/05) "The analysis of the conflict 
in the Middle East should fully take into account the threat posed 
by Hezbollah not only to Israel and Lebanon but for the Arab 
countries... 
 
"... Hezbollah and its foreign supporters have confirmed that they 
prioritize confrontation as a way to obtain power, or at least 
feeding the Muslims' extremist currents. 
 
"This is why the strategy of Israel and the Western powers should be 
oriented not only to guaranteeing Israel's current security, but 
also to creating conditions to discourage the extension of 
fundamentalism... 
 
"Even when acknowledging Israel's right to defend its territory, the 
extent and features of its offensive may contribute to generating 
support for extremism. Measuring the extent of this is crucial to 
attain long-term peace in the region." 
 
- "Farm subsidies round" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (08/05) "... Whether WTO 
Director Pascal Lamy's decision to abandon WTO negotiations meant 
the freezing of WTO Doha Round or some revival could be expected, 
still remains to be seen... 
 
"... The points of disagreement concerning Argentina are related to 
farm liberalization. In this field, we agree with the US regarding 
the reduction of market access tariffs. However, we disagree on the 
low reduction of farm subsidies." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA