VZCZCXYZ0017
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1744/01 2161305
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041305Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5455
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001744 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST WAR; CUBA; IDB LOAN FOR ARGENTINA; VENEZUELAN 
PRESIDENT CHAVEZ; PERUVIAN PRESIDENT-ELECT ALAN GARCIA 08/03/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's key international stories include the implications of the 
war in the Middle East; US foreign policy; the situation in Cuba; 
the danger posed by Venezuelan President Chavez to Mercosur and the 
world; and expectations about the Alan Garcia administration. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Apocalypse now, perhaps" 
 
James Neilson, contributor to liberal, English-language "Buenos 
Aires Herald," writes (08/03) "Hezbollah, the 'Party of God' is a 
ferociously anti-Semitic organization that wants to destroy Israel 
and all its inhabitants. 
 
"... In military terms it seems that Israel is just getting the 
better of Hezbollah, but even if from now on everything went its way 
it could still end up the loser... 
 
"In the unlikely event that Hezbollah were expelled from Southern 
Lebanon, it would merely regroup elsewhere and avenge itself with 
more attacks with increasingly potent rockets... 
 
"... Hezbollah would not have reached its present size and strength 
without the money, arms and specialized manpower that it gets from 
the religious zealots in charge of Iran... 
 
"But both Israel and the Western powers, which in practice means the 
US, are reluctant to take their own thesis to its logical conclusion 
for fear of bigger wars in the Middle East, more terrorist 
atrocities and huge protest demonstrations... 
 
"Israel's decision to do what is necessary to dismantle Hezbollah 
may gain it another breathing space, but it will not be safe until 
an overwhelming majority of Moslems concede it the right to live in 
peace. 
 
"... About the only thing that could halt it in its tracks would be 
a premature attack by Iran that spurred the US into action. One may 
be on the cards." 
 
- "A dangerous boomerang" 
 
Santiago O'Donnell, columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," opines 
(08/03) "The war has just entered its most critical stage. The Qana 
massacre... did not affect Washington's support for Israel's war 
plan but it shortened the USG's timing. Bush urgently sent 
Condoleezza Rice to the region but the price he is paying at home 
has turned out intolerable. 
 
"Opinion surveys are awful for him. Less than three months away from 
legislative elections, in which he will run a serious risk to lose 
his majority in both chambers, his foreign policy in the Middle East 
has become a dangerous boomerang. Even prominent Republican leaders 
like Richard Armitage have criticized him. Democrats have managed to 
get united for the first time since the beginning of the invasion of 
Iraq and have asked the US president to start withdrawing troops and 
to negotiate with Syria and Iran a solution to the crisis. 
 
"... The idea of Bush's hawks is to stop the growth of the Iranian 
influence in the region. US analysts have coined a phrase to 
describe the situation, 'proxy war' between military forces 
representing the interests of the USG and Iran, this is Israel and 
Hezbollah, respectively." 
 
- "The US Congress and media ask for a lift on the US embargo on 
Cuba" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (08/03) "While the US media favored yesterday a lift on the 
US embargo on Cuba, the Bush administration reiterated that Fidel's 
replacement by his brother Raul has not implied that transition 
towards democracy has started on the island. 
 
"A group of senators led by Republican John Ensign submitted a draft 
bill promoting a multilateral effort from the US and the countries 
of the region. 
 
"The purpose is to plan a regional strategy for a transition to 
democracy in Cuba and channel up to 80 million dollars in direct aid 
for dissidents and political democratic activists on the island. 
However, the draft bill does not include a clause lifting the 
embargo, something that will probably be objected to by the entire 
region." 
 
- "Washington's plans if there is a change on the island" 
 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (08/03) "Unwilling to 
negotiate with Raul Castro or any other figure of the Cuban 
Communist regime..., the US does not have much maneuvering margin to 
promote an effective transition on the island without contributing 
to the continuity of the current regime. 
 
"The Republican administration reiterated yesterday that it will 
maintain its isolation policy on Cuba, including its current 
controversial embargo as long as diplomatic bilateral talks are 
still the minimal talks that were established when US President 
George W. Bush took over. 
 
"Both countries only hold talks on matters related to the US 
automatic political asylum, which is granted by anyone reaching the 
US by his/her own means but not those who are detained by the 
Caribbean coast guard. 
 
"The White House's decision is for now to avoid taking false steps. 
It will wait until knowing for sure whether Fidel Castro will resume 
power or his brother Raul will take over..." 
 
- "An (IDB) loan reopens controversy about public rates" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (08/03) "During a very agitated meeting..., the IDB Board 
approved yesterday a 580-million-dollar loan to fund a 1,220 
kilometer-long 500-kilowatt-electric transmission line. 
 
"The loan was approved by 55 vis-`-vis of votes (all Latin American 
directors, plus France and Spain)... while 45 per cent (the US, 
Germany, Japan, Italy and Canada) abstained from voting based on the 
fact that the Argentine public rates system has not been put in 
order yet." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "The real face of Hugo Chavez" 
 
An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (08/03) 
"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's long world tour... is making 
clear his true foreign policy purposes, which should disturb his 
Mercosur partners... 
 
"It is unacceptable that the Venezuelan leader has chosen to reach a 
strategic alliance with Belarus, whose president has received 
international sanctions for his constant human rights violations... 
 
"... In Russia, Chavez signed deals for the purchase of armament for 
over one billion dollars... In return, Venezuela obtained Russia's 
support for its candidacy for a UN Security Council seat... 
 
"The most questionable fact of Chavez's tour occurred in Iran, with 
which Venezuela seems to have developed an increasing and suspicious 
operational privacy. This relationship should raise fear given the 
ties between Hezbollah and the Iranian regime... Chavez even 
compared Israel with Hitler, which is not only a horrible mistake 
but an unacceptable offense. 
 
"... Chavez's tour has confirmed his arrogance, his risky position 
on foreign policy matters, his increasing dangerousness for the 
peace and security of the region and the world, and his total lack 
of understanding about where good and evil are. 
 
"The Venezuelan president's behavior should immediately call the 
attention of Mercosur member countries because his extreme positions 
could jeopardize Mercosur's ties with the world. 
 
"Argentina should not support figures who contradict its own 
positions on international safety and balance." 
 
- "Another chance for Alan Garcia" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (08/03) "Alan Garcia's 
presidential inauguration is a milestone in the Latin American 
scenario. Two decades ago, he ended his first administration with a 
negative result. 
 
"... Everyone agrees that Alan Garcia will have a second chance for 
claiming to be a good political leader... 
 
"For this purpose, he will have to build consensus based on 
congressional and social support, as well as implement a program for 
attaining economic growth and stability, social inclusion and an 
improvement in the status of the poor. 
 
"In the regional framework, we expect that the Garcia administration 
will contribute to soothing frictions with neighboring countries and 
strengthen the convergence procedure, which is a requisite for the 
peace and security of this part of the hemisphere." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA