VZCZCXYZ0010
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1743/01 2161304
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041304Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5452
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001743 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST; CUBAN TRANSITION; AMBASSADOR WAYNE 
08/02/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's key international stories include the war in the Middle East 
and the need for putting an end to the escalation in violence; Fidel 
Castro's transferring power to his brother; and US Ambassador to 
Argentina, Earl Anthony Wayne, having to deal with local political 
leaders during the Argentine election campaign. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Europe is disoriented" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed piece by Juan Gabriel 
Tokatlian, professor of International Relations at Universidad San 
Andres, who writes (08/02) "Europe's lower international stature in 
current world politics is apparent. Regarding any important topic or 
event with a global impact, Europe's position is increasingly 
inconsistent. 
 
"The current crisis in the Middle East is an example that Europe not 
only does not offer a different alternative from that of the US, but 
it also lacks the aptitude of generating effective consensus... 
 
"Divided and docile, the EU ended up 'de  facto' legitimizing the 
humanitarian catastrophe in the Middle East. 
 
"... In brief, Europe is disoriented, which affects its collective 
identity and diplomatic projection. It does not object to US 
arrogance, it lacks its own influence capability and does not have 
strategic partners aside from Washington..." 
 
- "'The fact that Castro transfers power to his brother does not 
imply a transition'" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (08/02) "Swaying between cautiousness and hopes that Fidel 
Castro's regime in Cuba is coming to an end, the Bush administration 
said yesterday that if the Cuban leader's sickness leads to a 
democratic transition, the US is ready to support it with economic 
and humanitarian cooperation... 
 
"During a press interview, US Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez 
warned the Cuban-American community that it should not interfere in 
the process, and he added that Cuban-Americans will not attempt to 
recover the houses they lost when they left the island. 
 
"... Asked about a possible contradiction between the objective of 
the Committee for Assistance to a Free Cuba to undermine the 
regime's succession strategy and  current statements that the USG 
does not want third parties to influence the transition on the 
island, Gutierrez answered, 'What we want is that the Cuban people 
may choose their next leader. We have promoted free elections from 
the very beginning. We do not see any contradiction in this. It is a 
noble objective.'" 
 
- "Cuba, far from the China or the Soviet Union's transition road" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by Alvaro 
Vargas Llosa, head of the Center for Global Prosperity at the 
Independent Institute, who writes (08/02) "Whether Fidel Castro's 
health status is terminal or not, the Cuban transition has started. 
At this point, no one knows what kind of transition it will be or 
how long it will take, but the symbolism represented by the transfer 
of power to Raul Castro is enough to tell us that the half-century 
of one-man government is almost certainly over. What comes ahead 
will not be Fidel Castro's dictatorship. 
 
"What kind of transition will Cuba have? Being a communist regime, 
there are five possible scenarios, and at least three of them no 
longer seem feasible in Cuba. 
 
"The Chinese, the Polish and the Soviet transition models are 
unlikely for Cuba because they implied change, but on the island 
they could represent a continued state of affairs. 
 
"... This leaves two possible transitions. One would be 'Fidelism' 
without Fidel. In other words, it would be a military dictatorship 
under Raul Castro. The real transition would not start until his 
death or inability... The other, more likely scenario would be the 
struggle for power among different factions." 
 
- "The US will maintain the embargo while Communism prevails in 
Cuba" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (08/02) "With news about Fidel 
Castro merged in shadows, the USG announced yesterday that it is 
 
getting ready to support a democratic transition in Cuba, but it 
also warned that it will maintain the trade embargo imposed on the 
island as long as the Communist regime prevails. 
 
"On state of alert and in expectation of news from Havana, the White 
House has already dismissed the possibility of bridging gaps with 
Raul Castro... 
 
"... The Republican administration tried to downplay expectations of 
exiled Cubans and the fears of those living in Cuba, who fear a US 
military invasion or the irruption of thousands of followers of 
Fulgencio Batista who are determined to expel them from their former 
properties." 
 
- "The transition on the island has already started" 
 
Business-financial "El Cronista" carries an opinion piece by Jorge 
Castro, head of the Institute for Strategic Planning, who writes 
(08/02) "Fidel Castro's political and military transfer of power 
implies a change in the nature of the political regime in force 
since 1959. 
 
"... The regime has crystal-clear military features, which emerged 
from a history of domestic war and 'international delegations.' 
 
"The transition has been implemented in Cuba regardless of the fact 
that Fidel Castro's distance from power could be temporary... and 
everything indicates that the Army will be the focus of the Cuban 
political process." 
 
- "There was no transition but succession" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by 
international columnist Jorge Elias, who writes (08/02) "There was 
not a transition. Castro temporarily transferred power to Castro. 
Therefore, there was not a transition but a succession... 
 
"... After over four decades of a useless economic embargo, which 
ended up being Fidel Castro's favorite excuse, the Bush 
administration, through the Committee for the Assistance of a Free 
Cuba, is confident that a transition will end up in a democracy that 
will be in alignment with the region. 
 
"For the time being, nothing indicates that Raul Castro does have 
this purpose. Nothing indicates, either, that the 80 million dollars 
that the USG is planning to use in support for Cuban opponents will 
bear fruits. They have a manufacturer's shortfall - Bush's stamp. 
 
"All those funds will be irremediably related to Iraq in general and 
to Abu Ghraib in particular, Guantanamo, Katrina, and the Middle 
East. All those funds will be repelled by Castro's supporters in the 
region." 
 
- "An exaggerated simplification" 
 
Leading "Clarin's" general editor Ricardo Kirschbaum writes (08/02) 
"After overcoming the strong obstacles placed by anti-Castro 
Washington lobbyists to his nomination, the new US Ambassador to 
Buenos Aires has been confirmed and will come in September. 
 
"Earl Anthony Wayne, one of whose first important tasks was 
assisting Alexander Haig in his frustrated mediation during the 
Malvinas (Falkland) islands war, knows the symbolic and true 
importance of being the White House's representative among local 
political leaders. Obviously enough, this real influence is part of 
the panorama envisioned by every local political leader of the 
national situation. In this world, when one speaks of 'the Embassy,' 
everyone knows what one is talking about and does not need any 
clarification whatsoever. 
 
"Just like political leaders carefully handle their ties with the 
Embassy, American diplomats are also cautious, particularly with 
elections ahead... Recent charges against Lavagna based on his 
alleged meeting in Washington with a high-ranking USG official at 
the US Department of State... have reinforced Wayne and his aides' 
cautiousness. 
 
"In the slippery times of election campaigns, there is an 
exaggerated tendency to oversimplify scenarios without taking into 
account the historic framework... As well as opponents have 
exaggerated official deviations, the official party reacted in the 
same way by seeking to recreate historic conflicts. 
 
"In this framework, Wayne hears the word Braden and is scared away 
as if it were a ghost." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
 
- "Stop the war in the Middle East" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (08/02) "A strong diplomatic 
pressure and a resolute attitude of the countries having the largest 
influence in the Middle East should stop the escalation of violence 
that was unleashed by Israel's military offensive against Lebanon. 
 
"... Israel's self-justification, which is based on the principle of 
legitimate defense, is weakened by the magnitude and consequences of 
its military offensive. 
 
"On the other hand, the Israeli offensive will not bring larger 
guarantees to Israelis and implies a severe retreat and a serious 
blow to its harmony with Arab countries... 
 
"It is time to remember that there are no unilateral way outs of the 
war in the Middle East. The international community, the US and the 
main countries involved should find an urgent formula for a 
ceasefire." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA