VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2982/01 2412344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 292344Z AUG 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1862
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5597
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6800

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002982 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CAMPAIGN TO OUST PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh's formal announcement 
Monday that the sit-in rally to oust President Chen Shui-bian will 
kick off September 9 stayed in the Taiwan's media spotlight August 
¶29.  News coverage also focused on the possibility of a visit by 
China's Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin in October. 
Several papers carried on inside pages the results of a latest DPP 
survey, which showed that even though 77.5 percent of those polled 
believe the campaign to oust President Chen will not succeed, 47.2 
percent said they still support the campaign.  The same poll also 
found that only 12 percent of respondents said they will join the 
sit-in rally, while 88 percent said they will not. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, criticized 
Shih's moves to oust President Chen, saying it will only divide and 
disturb Taiwan society.  An analysis in the pro-unification "United 
Daily News" said in the battle between Shih and Chen, KMT Chairman 
Ma Ying-jeou is in the least favorable position.  But the article 
also pointed out that the KMT, which holds a majority of seats in 
the Legislative Yuan, will be the one that can really solve problems 
within the system.  With regard to U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, an 
opinion piece in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" said "It is high time the U.S. pays 
attention to Asia, so government officials do not inadvertently 
advance the interests of another nation at the expense of the U.S." 
End summary. 
 
¶3. Movements to Oust President Chen Shui-bian" 
 
A) "Movement to Oust Bian Outside the System Will Split and Disturb 
Society" 
 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] 
editorialized (8/29): 
 
"... Evidently the sit-in campaign to oust Bian, which was initiated 
by Shih Ming-teh and is strongly supported by the pan-Blue camp, is 
just part of the struggle to oust Bian.  The struggle to oust him 
within the system, as claimed by the oust-Bian forces, also includes 
moves to impeach or recall the president, or even to cast a 
no-confidence vote on the Cabinet, all of which are part of a 
conceived strategy.  In other words, the oust-Bian forces want to 
mobilize people from within and outside the system 'until A-Bian 
steps down.'  Such a plan will make this serial even more severe. 
... 
 
"A sit-in is a democratic right of the people, but whether it is 
legitimate to exercise such a right must depend on whether the issue 
which people address is appropriate or not.  The call for A-Bian to 
step down should hinge on whether the evidence is sufficient enough 
to judge [Chen's] rights and wrongs.  Should it really prove that 
President Chen is involved in irregularities, those who support him 
must not back him blindly.  But judged by the current situation, it 
is still insufficiently legitimate to replace the judiciary system 
or democracy with pressure exerted outside the system, and to 
thereby create emotional confrontation between those who support 
Bian and those who oppose him, a move that will surely split and 
disturb society. ..." 
 
B) "It is Ma Who Will Have to Catch the Ball in the Bian-Shih 
Confrontation" 
 
Journalist Lo Hsiao-ho noted in an analysis in the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (8/29): 
 
"... In this battle between Bian and Shih, Bian has the support of 
Green stalwarts and the protection of his presidency, and will not 
easily back down.  Shih, who has undergone numerous battles, will 
not be willing to leave the field without achieving anything, 
either; the many reforms of the political system will likely become 
secondary objectives that he wants to achieve.  In this battle, Ma 
Ying-jeou is in the least favorable position.  Problems like social 
order, political stability, or how to tackle the mounting public 
voices calling for Bian's ouster will put Ma in a straitened 
circumstance; and he may be hurt severely if he fails to handle it 
carefully. ... 
 
"All people in Taiwan know that Bian will not step down; a 
revolutionary as smart as Shih must also know it clearly.  Even 
though he has not abandoned his goal to oust Bian, there are 
naturally many political possibilities [facing him].  Shih has no 
soldiers in the political arena, and the KMT, which holds a majority 
of seats in the Legislative Yuan, is the one which is really able to 
solve problems within the system.  [If Shih's campaign fails] the 
overwhelming public sentiment will likely rush forward to the KMT. 
The KMT should ponder on how to deal with such a powerful political 
current. ..." 
 
¶4. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
"Wishy-washy Policy Hurts the US" 
 
Li Thian-hok, a commentator based in Pennsylvania, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (8/29): 
 
"... The Bush administration pays insufficient attention to 
developments in Taiwan or China and the US is preoccupied with 
problems in the Middle East.  It does not have a clear policy on 
Taiwan's future as part of a comprehensive, long-term strategic 
vision of the US role in Asia.  US policy toward China and Taiwan is 
adrift, focusing on short-term goals and superficial, mundane 
affairs.  There is little consensus as to what policy will serve US 
national interests.  Asia will most likely prove to be the most 
important region for US security in this century because of the 
rapid rise of authoritarian China and the lack of an effective 
multilateral security arrangement in this region.  It is high time 
the US paid attention to Asia so government officials do not 
inadvertently advance the interests of another nation at the expense 
of the US. ..." 
 
YOUNG