VZCZCXYZ0008
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2974/01 2400848
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280848Z AUG 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1853
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5593
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6796

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002974 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CAMPAIGN TO OUST PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage August 26-28 on the multiple efforts to oust President Chen 
Shui-bian; the rally held by pro-Chen supporters in Taipei Saturday; 
and the Mainland Affairs Council's announcement Friday of the 
"Taiwan Strait Tourism and Travel Association" to negotiate with 
China over cross-Strait tourism issues.  Both the pro-status quo 
"China Times" and pro-unification "United Daily News" front-paged a 
likely announcement by former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh Monday 
afternoon that the sit-in campaign to oust President Chen will kick 
off September 9.  The "China Times" also front-paged on August 26 
the results of its latest joint survey with CTI-TV, which showed 
that 42 percent of those polled said they support Shih's campaign, 
while 20 percent said they oppose it.  The same poll also found that 
given Chen's insistence on staying on in his position and the DPP's 
all-out effort to support him, 60 percent of the respondents said 
they believe the chances are slim for Shih's campaign to succeed in 
ousting Chen, and only 8 percent believe it will succeed. 
 
On U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, the "China Times" ran a banner 
headline on page four August 28 that said "Displeased with Taiwan 
Stalling Arms Procurements, U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan Downgraded: No 
Budget, No Talks." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times" 
editorial criticized the DPP for its stubborn support of President 
Chen regardless of right or wrong.  The article said the DPP has 
personally destroyed the two valuable assets that the party has been 
most proud of:  namely, the Formosa Incident and the 2002 transfer 
of power.  A separate "China Times" analysis said the DPP's all-out 
effort to protect Chen will only destroy itself, while the KMT can 
sit idly by and watch the DPP and Shih fight with each other.  An 
opinion piece in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" on the other hand, said Chen's 
resignation would not solve any of the structural problems with 
government, and instead, it could even trigger a more severe 
political crisis.  End summary. 
 
A) "What the DPP Destroys Is in Fact Its Own Spiritual Assets" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (8/26): 
 
"Everyone knows very clearly that for the DPP at this moment, no 
matter whether it supports Bian or opposes him, all the party core 
cares about is the logic of power, which is totally irrelevant to 
morality, a sense of values, or ethics.  But during the party's 
Faustian deal, perhaps only few clear-headed DPP members know in 
their hearts that what the DPP has lost is far greater than what it 
has gained.  At least, just over the past few weeks, the DPP itself 
has personally cleaned out, consumed, and even subverted the two 
assets that it has been most proud of in the process of Taiwan's 
democratization:  namely, the Formosa Incident and the transfer of 
power. 
 
"The reason that the historical significance of the transfer of 
power has grown dim is not entirely because of the campaign of one 
million people to oust Bian, but mostly because of the DPP's 
stubborn support for Bian without telling right from wrong, a move 
which showed that the DPP has denied every one of the values that it 
once upheld so highly about the transfer of power.  The DPP's choice 
to tie itself to Chen Shui-bian, something it has to do in terms of 
political reality, is understandable.  But has it ever occurred to 
the DPP that even if President Chen may be able to complete his 
term, he will be closely associated with the topic of 'resignation' 
during the remainder of his term?  Or perhaps Chen's approval 
ratings will no longer rise again until he finishes the remainder of 
his term.  The result of the DPP's all-out effort to support Bian 
will not help to redeem the party, but will only bury itself along 
with Chen as he finishes his term. ..." 
 
B) "Securing Bian May Likely Destroy the Green Camp; KMT Can Sit 
Idly and Watch Others Fight" 
 
Journalist Hsiao Hsu-tseng said in an analysis in the pro-status 
"China Times" [circulation:  400,000] (08/28/06): 
 
"How Ma Ying-jeou is going to deal with Shih Ming-teh's campaign to 
oust Bian has become a topic that is being heatedly discussed in the 
political arena.  Perhaps some people in the DPP anticipate that 
both Ma and Shih will 'get hurt.'  But the DPP may fail to foresee 
that the KMT will definitely 'sit idly and watch the others fight.' 
The more concentrated the power to support Bian and oppose Shih 
gets, the better news it is for the Blue camp. ... 
 
"For the DPP, Shih's campaign to oust Bian is a battle to secure the 
party's political power, which it must win, so it can put morality 
and its values in a secondary position.  But for the KMT, Shih's 
campaign is actually a battle of values and interests inside the 
DPP, ... and surely the KMT wants to sit idly and watch the two 
fight each other.  Given the facts that Chen will firmly stay on in 
his position and that the DPP will persevere to protect Bian, the 
result of Shih's movement is expected.  Ma will walk away safely as 
long as he sticks to his previous position of administration by the 
law.  Chen will win a bitter victory, but for the DPP and 
heavyweights like Annete Lu, Yu Shyi-kun, Su Tseng-chang, and Frank 
Hsieh, this will be a battle they are unlikely to win, and the only 
difference is just how much each of them loses." 
 
C) "Be Careful What You Wish for if Chen Goes" 
 
Liu Kuan-teh, a Taipei-based political commentator, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" (8/26): 
 
"... We should take seriously the public's craving for stability and 
respect judicial procedures in unveiling the truth.  If evidence 
shows that Chen was personally responsible for illegal activity, he 
should bear the political and moral responsibility and resign.  Yet 
Chen's resignation would not solve any of the structural problems 
with government.  Indeed, it could trigger an even more severe 
political crisis.  The pan-blue alliance would obstruct Chen's 
successor and exploit the transfer of power.  Can Taiwan afford a 
prolonged crisis lasting until 2008?  Can Shih guarantee - as he has 
claimed - that the ruling and opposition parties will engage in a 
rational dialogue if Chen resigns? 
 
"As a country struggling to deepen its democracy, Taiwan yearns for 
more discipline, institutionalization and order in all phases of its 
national life.  Upset with endless finger-pointing, a sense of 
political unrest and instability, the manipulation of ethnicity and 
the DPP's apparent trend toward political decay and corruption, 
voters are looking for national reconciliation, a strong leadership 
that can enhance an institutionalized system of politics, a truly 
independent judiciary and relatively clean politics. ..." 
 
YOUNG