VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2946 2360900
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 240900Z AUG 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1812
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5576
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6787

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002946 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION:  MOVEMENTS TO OUST PRESIDENT CHEN 
SHUI-BIAN 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage August 24 on former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh's campaign 
to oust President Chen Shui-bian; the many attacks against Shih's 
planned movement and against him personally; and the KMT's 
first-ever party assets report, which was released Wednesday.  The 
pro-status quo "China Times" dedicated two-thirds of its page three 
to carrying a letter by Lung Yin-tai, a well-known writer and 
scholar in both Taiwan and China, explaining why she did not donate 
NT$100 to Shih's campaign but believes President Chen should resign. 
 The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, on 
the other hand, ran a banner headline on page four that said "Shih 
Ming-teh's [Campaign] to Oust Bian Is Evolving Toward Blue-Green 
Confrontation."  Several papers also carried remarks by an unnamed 
U.S. State Department official regarding President Chen's planned 
transit of Guam in early September.  The official was quoted as 
saying that the U.S. decision over whether to allow Chen to transit 
Guam is unaffected by Taiwan's current political situation and thus 
cannot be interpreted as the United States support for Chen or not. 
 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an analysis in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" said Washington's clear 
indication that it will not get involved in Taiwan's political 
situation is the most important reason why President Chen appears to 
be "composed and self-assured."  The article also said that the 
campaign to oust Bian has led Chen to return to the political 
battlefield he is most familiar with, and as a result, September 
could be a crisis and a turning point for Chen.  End summary. 
 
"Green Camp Keeps Firing Severe Attacks at Shih, Bian Carried Away 
with His Triumph" 
 
Journalist Huang Ya-shih noted in an analysis in the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (8/24): 
 
"... Bian's confident looks indicated that the atmosphere has 
changed over the past week.  The series of moves taken by Bian's 
team to 'pacify Green supporters and expel outside attacks' gave 
Chen full confidence to win the battle and secure his position.  The 
U.S. side's clear position that it will not get involved in Taiwan's 
political situation was, without a doubt, the most important reason 
that Bian has appeared to be 'composed and self-assured.'  Even 
though Chen's 'unpredictability' often gave the United States 
headaches, Washington has doubts about Vice President Annette Lu 
succeeding Chen as president, and it is even more worried about the 
political upheavals which might be triggered by Chen's resignation. 
Bian chose to transit Guam, an external territory of the United 
States, probably because he was sure that Washington would not 
oppose such a proposal.  Bian can thus seize such an opportunity to 
create the impression that the United States supports him. 
 
"In Taiwan, even though the movements to oust Bian seem 
overwhelming, the development of the situation...somehow oddly 
reduced the pressure directly imposed by the Blue and Green camps on 
Bian.  The public pressure originally demanding a review of, and 
criticism against, Bian, and for the move to draw a line separate 
Bian and the DPP, used to fall on the DPP and its four top 
heavyweights.  Voices calling for reform of the DPP, from [Bian's] 
ceding some of his powers to the dissolution of the party's 
factions, seemed incessant, and A-bian was constantly in a 'to be 
tortured' position.  But since the emergence of the movements to 
oust Bian, DPP legislators have launched a series of planned moves 
to smear Shih Ming-teh, and as a result, Bian's pressure on the 
Green camp has grown relatively lighter. 
 
"The movements to oust Bian have even mitigated Bian's crisis with 
the pro-independence activists.  As the campaign to unseat the 
president gained more and more momentum, it has turned into a show 
venue for pan-Blue celebrities, a development that conveniently gave 
the DPP a chance to define the campaign as a copy of the protests 
against the March 19 shooting in 2004.  The deep-Green supporters 
who used to be slightly displeased with A-bian were left with no 
choice but to take his side. ... 
 
"As for people power, it will be very difficult to bring Chen down 
from his position from within the system.  Chen, who is well-versed 
in the law, is also clearly aware of this; that is why he has 
repeatedly referred to the law, saying 'my term will end in 2008,' 
and that the 'the issue must be resolved via the system.'  Compared 
with the previous beaten and vulnerable position Chen was in, the 
campaign to oust Bian has led him to return to the political 
battlefield that he is most familiar with.  In Bian's eyes, 
September may be a crisis for him, but it may also be a turning 
point for him 'to rise from demise again.'" 
 
YOUNG