VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2914/01 2350853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230853Z AUG 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1772
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5565
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6778

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002914 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - SCOTT WALKER 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, TAIWAN'S 
POLITICAL SITUATION 
 
 
¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies gave 
considerable coverage August 23 to an announcement by former DPP 
Chairman Shih Ming-teh Tuesday that he has reached his target of 
collecting NT$100 million [approximately US$3.1 million] in 
donations in support of his campaign to oust President Chen 
Shui-bian.  News coverage also focused on the many attacks against 
Shih's planned movement and his past behavior; and the KMT's party 
assets report, which is scheduled to be released today.  The 
pro-unification "United Daily News" ran a front-page banner headline 
that read "[Campaign to] Oust Bian Reaches over NT$100 Million, 
Political Situation Tense."  The pro-status quo "China Times," 
however, ran a banner headline on page four that said "Judging That 
United States Has Not [Moved to] Oust Him, Bian:  Scandals Will Not 
Scorch Me, Why Step Down?" 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, discussed 
China's strategy of "joining hands with the United States to 
restrain Taiwan," thereby "using economics to push for unification." 
 The article criticized many American officials for only paying 
attention to the interests of U.S. businesses in Taiwan, but 
overlooking the United States' long-term interests and security. 
With regard to Shih Ming-teh's campaign to oust President Chen, a 
"China Times" editorial urged the ruling DPP to reflect on its role 
and think about its future now.  An editorial in the 
limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" said Shih and his fellow organizers must build up 
popular pressure so strong and so powerful that it would leave Chen 
no choice but to resign.  End summary. 
 
¶3. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
"Strictly Guard against Strategy of 'Using Economics to Push 
Unification' by Means of 'Joining Hands with the United States to 
Restrain the Island'" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] 
editorialized (8/23): 
 
"Following half a century's training and experience, China has come 
to realize that the shortest distance to 'restraining Taiwan' is not 
a direct line, but through the United States; that is, China has to 
expand its battlefield from Beijing and Taipei to Washington, and 
achieve the goal of 'restraining Taiwan' via the United States. 
China's strategy of 'joining hands with the United States to 
restrain Taiwan' has worked successfully until now.  The Taiwan 
people should still have a fresh memory of the U.S. attitude during 
the periods when Taiwan's held its 'defensive referendum' in 2004 
and when it 'ceased the functions of the National Unification 
Council' last year [sic].  Over these past few years, the pro-China 
powers in Taiwan also have gradually sensed that the most effective 
way to carry out direct transportation across the Taiwan Strait, to 
have Taiwan banks open their branch offices on the mainland, and to 
remove the island's restrictions on investments in China is to go 
through U.S. businesses, which will exert pressure on Taiwan via the 
U.S. government.  ... 
 
"The pro-China powers failed to get what they wanted at the 
Conference on Sustaining Taiwan's Economic Development, but they did 
not give up hope.  On August [sic] 13, former AIT Taipei Director 
Douglas Paal took the initiative in slashing at Taiwan's 
'closed-door policy' at a public speech he made at the U.S.-based 
Brookings Institution.  Incumbent AIT Director Stephen Young also 
followed suit and elaborated in his speech at the 'ROC-USA Business 
Council' that in order to seek American businesses' support for 
Taiwan signing a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States, 
Taiwan must first remove its restrictions on cross-Strait trade, 
economics, investments and transportation.  It seems that to meet 
the interests of U.S. businesses in Taiwan, these U.S. firms have 
joined Taiwan businessmen in China in using the FTA to threaten and 
force Taiwan to accept direct transportation and to open up to 
China, which will endanger Taiwan's sovereignty.  It seems obvious 
that many American officials only pay attention to the interests of 
U.S. businesses in Taiwan and overlook the United States' long-term 
interests and security.  They have never contemplated the 
seriousness of how the United States is going to defend Taiwan 
against China's military threats should the island move toward 
unification some day because of economic integration. 
 
"But in the meantime, we must ask ourselves why U.S. government 
officials would accept the views of U.S. businesses in Taiwan 
without thinking?  To be honest, we have absolutely no right to 
blame them, because the Taiwan government also holds the same 
position as that of AIT's in terms of cross-Strait trade and 
economics. ...  What AIT officials in Taiwan heard and saw day and 
night were the appeals of the American businesses, Taiwan investors, 
and pro-unification media outlets to push for westbound direct 
transportation, and the Taiwan officials, who support opening and 
 
direct transportation but flinch from doing so all the time. 
 
"The situation in Washington D.C. is more serious.  The Taiwan 
representative dispatched by the ruling DPP government to Washington 
D.C. is a person whose political stance and ideology are those of 
the pan-Blue camp, which advocates westbound [investments].  As a 
result, the messages he sent to U.S. officials directly or 
indirectly are also of the pan-Blue perspective.  The trade and 
economic delegations organized by the Ministry of Economic Affairs 
and other government agencies alike were all composed of those 
people who uphold westbound investment.  [Given such a situation,] 
which has lasted for six years, it would be very difficult for U.S. 
State Department officials not to 'tilt toward China to restrain 
Taiwan. ...'" 
 
¶4. Taiwan's Political Situation 
 
A) "The Crisis Thatr the DPP Should Deal with Is by No Means Shih 
Ming-teh's Personal Morality" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (8/23): 
 
"The 'one million people to oust Bian' campaign' initiated by Shih 
Ming-teh has collected as much money as it expected.  Even though 
there may not be exactly one million donors, it nonetheless 
represents remarkable mass power.  Both President Chen and the DPP 
must never underestimate such public resentment.  Since the public 
who are discontented with Bian have gathered, and the razor-sharp 
barricades that are supposed to suppress riots are ready, it seems 
that both sides are ready to fight, and confrontation is imminent. 
Under Shih's strong-willed leadership, it is obvious that such a 
large-scale mass movement is ready to go and will not stop until it 
attains its goal.  But still, there are many unpredictable elements 
in a long-term mass movement, and different variables may produce 
unpredictable results.  There are still several days before the 
activity to oust Bian will start, and now is perhaps the best 
opportunity for the ruling authorities to reflect on and review 
themselves.  ..." 
 
B) "'Depose-Chen' Movement Must Win Wider Support" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (8/23): 
 
"The 'one million people to oust President Chen Shui-bian' campaign 
has continued to gain warm support from all walks of life since its 
launch a week ago.  Yet the success in achieving this goal will 
depend on whether the movement can continue to gather momentum in 
the weeks ahead and how well its organizers stage their protests. 
...  Still, for the movement to succeed in ousting the 
scandal-plagued leader, Shih and his fellow organizers must build a 
popular pressure so strong and so powerful that would leave Chen no 
choice but to resign by mobilizing much wider public backing for 
their cause. ...  True, seeking to unseat the president through 
'people power' can cause political turmoil and endanger stability. 
But history proves that stability is often a price that a society 
must pay in pursuit of greater reform and progress. ..." 
 
YOUNG