VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #2889/01 2330912
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 210912Z AUG 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1741
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5555
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6770

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002889 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - SCOTT WALKER 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION:  TAIWAN'S POLITICAL SITUATION, GWOT, 
KOIZUMI'S YASUKUNI SHRINE VISIT 
 
 
¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage August 19-21 on the multiple efforts to oust President Chen 
Shui-bian, investigations into the Presidential Office's special 
state affairs expense account, and the KMT's plan to release a party 
assets report on Wednesday.  Almost all papers carried on inside 
pages August 20 President Chen's remarks to his supporters Saturday 
that he "will never fall and will finish my term."  The pro-status 
quo "China Times" ran a banner headline on August 21 that read 
"Patience Has Its Limits; Insisting on Finishing His Term, Bian 
Fights Back:  Will Not Remain Passive and Vulnerable to Attacks All 
the Time." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an analysis in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" said President Chen's plan to 
secure his presidency is to embrace independence, cling to Premier 
Su Tseng-chang, and fire at Shih Ming-teh.  A "China Times" 
editorial criticized President Chen and the DPP by asking "How is a 
state leader going to lead his country when his own personality and 
moral integrity are severely questioned by his people?"  An 
editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" urged Taiwan's Foreign Ministry to 
take a new approach, or better a more radical course of action, to 
make Taiwan's international position clear, given that Washington 
seems unconcerned by China's attempt to lure away Taiwan's allies 
and thereby destabilize the cross-Strait "status quo."  With regard 
to the war on terrorism, an editorial in the limited-circulation, 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" said 
more has to be done to increase the mutual understanding between the 
West and the Arabs.  A separate "China Post" editorial discussed 
Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi's recent visit to the Yasukuni 
Shrine, saying he has missed a golden opportunity to go down in 
history as a statesman.  End summary. 
 
¶3. Taiwan's Political Situation 
 
A) "Bian to Fight His Battle to Secure His Presidency by Embracing 
Independence, Clinging to Su, and Firing at Shih" 
 
Journalist Lo Hsiao-ho noted in an analysis in the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (8/20): 
 
"As the movements to oust President Chen Shui-bian escalated, Chen 
and the DPP's strategy to cope with these movements also grew 
clearer and clearer.  Bian clung tightly to the independence 
supporters and canceled Su's revisionist line, offering former 
President Lee Teng-hui, who is also of the Green camp, no excuse to 
oust him.  As for the DPP headquarters and DPP legislators, they 
launched a 'fire at will' campaign against Shih Ming-teh's efforts 
to oust Bian, embarking on all-out attacks against Shih's personal 
life, connections and political relationships to undermine Shih's 
validity. 
 
"For Bian, whose approval rating has dropped to a minimal point, 
this is the only way for him to protect himself.  No matter how many 
Taiwan elites from different walks of life come forward to oust him, 
Bian, already dead meat, could not care less.  As long as the 
movements to oust Bian fail to defeat the deep-Green front, Chen 
will be just about able to secure his position.  If he can survive 
for another six months until next spring, the campaign for the 2008 
presidential elections will start then, and no one will be 
interested in asking him to step down. ..." 
 
B) "[People] Stand Forward to Fight Corruption Just Because They 
Cherish Taiwan" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (8/21): 
 
"... The biggest misstep [President Chen has made] in terms of 
estimation was that he seemed to really believe that he still had 
chances to push his two major lines, four administrative objectives, 
and three movements during his remaining term.  Chen failed to 
accomplish many of the above-mentioned lines or objectives even when 
his approval rating reached 70 percent and when the DPP enjoyed its 
highest popularity.  Given the fact that support for both Chen and 
the DPP have both dropped to 18 percent, it sounds really 
'ridiculous' in the current climate when Chen says he wants to 'push 
Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan,' 
and to 'craft a new constitution for Taiwan.'  Chen is either really 
unaware, or he simply pretends that he does not know the following 
facts:  How is a state leader going to lead his country when his own 
personality and moral integrity are severely questioned by his 
people?  How can a ruling party which sneered at morality as if it 
were a feudalistic idea stand upright to push for policies? ...  It 
is enough that Chen Shui-bian has hijacked the DPP.  Do we want to 
see him also hijack all of Taiwan? ...  Do people really believe 
that Chen is entitled to represent Taiwan and that 'protecting Bian' 
is really akin to 'protecting Taiwan?'  A majority of the Taiwan 
 
people may not think so.  For many Taiwan people, they join the 
campaign to oust Bian primarily because they treasure Taiwan and 
therefore they want to protect it. ..." 
 
C) "Fair-Weather Allies Deserve China" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (8/19): 
 
"... At some point, as China turns the screws on the dwindling 
number of countries that recognize Taipei, the foreign ministry will 
need to take a new approach.  Given that Washington seems 
unconcerned by the destabilizing effect of ally-poaching, especially 
to the cross-strait 'status quo,' perhaps the ministry might 
consider a more radical course of action to make Taiwan's 
international position clear.  Do we need an ally if it is incapable 
of genuine commitment?  If the ministry were to announce that 
bipartisan political support would be necessary for the ally to 
receive aid, and that cash aid were to cease- replaced by boosted 
development programs and closely audited transfer of material aid - 
then what would be the result? 
 
"Most of the allies would jump ship.  This would serve several 
purposes:  a lot of money would be saved; long-term ties with 
remaining allies could be consolidated (including more generous and 
tailor-made programs looking well beyond whatever electoral apply); 
there would be a decrease in the morale-sapping unilateral severing 
of ties; and the 'status quo' would be disrupted so dramatically 
that even Washington would take notice. ...  No diplomat would be so 
nave as to think that morality determines the fortunes of nations. 
As a senior U.S. official in Taiwan was recently overheard saying: 
the mighty prevail and the weak submit.  Very true, but there is 
more to it than this, because decision-making processes in mature 
democracies are informed by more than immediate military and 
economic imperatives.  Somewhere in the mix there remains a little 
room for things like patriotism and honor.  Their role is not to be 
laughed at.  Taiwan can afford to restrict itself to allies who want 
more from a relationship than handouts.  The rest are welcome to 
deal with China on whatever reduced terms Beijing allows." 
 
¶4. GWOT 
 
"Terror in the Skies" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (8/21): 
 
"... And the whole world - except those fanatics and their 
supporters - rightly condemns terrorism, which, however, has become 
practically the only means by which they can and will continue to 
fight the Christian West they believe to be bent on destroying Islam 
as a way of life.  Of course they are wrong, but little has been 
done to convince them that they are.  Much more has to be done to 
let them acquire a better understanding of the current conflict 
between the West and the Arabs.  Better mutual understanding alone, 
not the force of arms in war, can put an end to the jihad of 
al-Qaida, Hamas, Hezbollah and other Islamic movements.  The truce 
arranged by the United Nations between Hezbollah and Israel oes not 
help promote that mutual understanding.  Worse, it may deepen the 
West-Arab feud, prodding the fanatic Islamists to expand their war 
of terrorism on mankind in the process." 
 
¶5. Koizumi's Yasukuni Shrine Visit 
 
"Koizumi's Place in History" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] commented in an editorial (8/19): 
 
"By visiting a controversial shrine in Tokyo, which is regarded by 
many as a 'memorial to Japanese imperialism and militarism,' 
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi missed a golden 
opportunity to go down in history as a statesman.  Instead, he is 
likely to be seen by critics as a bigot, or hailed by some of his 
countrymen as a jingoist. ...  To say the visit is a challenge to 
international justice is an understatement.  It is a provocation as 
well as an insult to peoples victimized by Japanese militarism and 
imperialism.  The victims' feelings are hurt when they see the 
hawkish Japanese prime minister paying respects to such notorious 
war criminals like Hideki Tojo, Japan's wartime prime minister who 
started the Pacific War in 1941 by attacking Pearl Harbor. ... 
 
"Koizumi's stubbornness is sure to carry a price.  Japan's relations 
with its two closest neighbors will worsen.  His place in history 
will sink and his image will be tainted.  The outgoing Japanese 
politician, who retires next month, can hardly go down in history as 
a statesman, which is defined by farsightedness, shrewdness, and 
broadmindedness - qualities that enhance national interests and 
 
world wellness.  But his stubbornness, on the other hand, is also 
admired by like-minded people for his steely will to stand to 
crushing pressure from Beijing and Seoul, which are not on speaking 
terms with him.  Koizumi, for sure, will be a hero to many Japanese. 
... 
 
YOUNG