VZCZCXRO1197
RR RUEHNZ
DE RUEHWL #0577/01 2070526
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260526Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3077
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0852
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000577 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: DESPITE BAD POLLING, PARTY UNITES BEHIND BRASH, FOR NOW 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Recent polling in New Zealand, which showed a continued 
decline in the number of New Zealanders who would prefer National 
Party leader Don Brash as Prime Minister, could have a profound 
affect on the party's ability to form the next government. The 
continual decline in Brash's personal polling has renewed media 
speculation over his leadership.  At National's annual conference, 
notable for its moderate tone, party faithful reinforced their 
support of Brash as leader. However, it remains to be seen whether 
this will last if polls also show a sustained drop in support for 
National as a party. End Summary 
 
Polls send conflicting messages of party support 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Polling over the past few weeks has been notable for its 
volatility. A Roy Morgan poll measured the right-leaning National 
ahead of left-leaning Labour by 8 points, only to be followed by a 
3News/TNS poll which reversed this result. The most recent One 
News/Colmar Brunton poll found National down 2% to 45% but still 
ahead of Labour at 43% up 5%. 
 
Yet reveals a steady slide in Brash's popularity 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The 3 News/TNS and the One News/Colmar Brunton polls both 
reveal a slow leak of support for Brash as preferred prime minister 
(The Roy Morgan poll did not measure this). Averaging out the two 
polls, only 13% of New Zealanders favor Brash as their preferred 
prime minister. This figure, considered extremely low for a party 
leader, and is down 5% from similar polling in May. Brash's dismal 
rating pales in comparison to that of Prime Minister Helen Clark who 
averages a 38% approval rating, up 2% from previous polling. 
National's finance spokesman John Key, regarded by many commentators 
as the most likely person to replace Brash as leader, features at 7% 
in the One News/Colmar Brunton poll, but fails to even register in 3 
News/TNS poll. 
 
A popular Brash is vital to election prospects 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4. (SBU) The typical New Zealand voter is largely politically 
apathetic without deep-seated party affiliation.  Many base their 
party vote exclusively on the perceived merits, even likeability, of 
a particular leader. Some analysts believe National did not win the 
last election because many New Zealanders could not 'see' Brash as 
their prime minister, particularly next to the more experienced and 
political savvy Clark.  National's electoral prospects at the next 
election could be similarly damaged unless Brash claws back some 
lost ground in personal polling. 
 
Leadership conjecture dominant pre-conference issue 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) National's share of party support remains strong and a poll 
on the eve of the conference showed that National Party supporters 
remained faithful to Brash as leader.  Speculation about his 
leadership nevertheless threatened to overwhelm the conference, 
particularly as there were no plans to unveil new policies or other 
diversions.  Just before the conference, a number of analysts and 
media articles claimed that Brash's low-key style has made the party 
invisible, and they also noted that his public affairs team has 
repeatedly erred.  (In one recent incident, Brash was photographed 
teetering across a plank -- not the image of a strong leader.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) In the end, National decided to tackle the leadership issue 
head-on at the conference in the hope of neutralizing the rumors. 
Party faithful were quick to express collective support for Brash's 
leadership, thus appearing to heed the warning from Party President, 
Judith Kirk, that disunity would hinder the party's electoral 
prospects.  In his keynote speech, Brash conceded that he has made 
some mistakes as leader but defended his leadership style and 
asserted he was the right man to lead National to victory at the 
next election.   Brash then attacked PM Clark's integrity and 
accused her of turning a "blind eye to allegations of serious 
corruption" (Clark has fended off allegations of questionable 
conduct by a number of Labour MPs in recent months, the latest by a 
Labour backbench MP, Philip Field over his use of cheap Thai migrant 
labor to work on a house he owns in Samoa) 
 
 
WELLINGTON 00000577  002 OF 002 
 
 
But speculation persists 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) One National MP told Post that as far as he is aware "there 
is no appetite or maneuvering currently within caucus to replace 
Brash as leader". He claimed that the Prime Minister adopts those 
National Party initiatives that gain traction with the public, 
neutralizing the Nat's gains in support.  This makes it tempting for 
National to withhold announcement of new ideas, but this in turn 
makes the party look weak.  Party members understand this dynamic 
and know Brash is not to blame, the MP said.   Yet a 
Wellington-based Australian diplomat says that senior National MP 
Simon Power, who has hardly featured in recent leadership 
speculation, is poised to challenge Brash for the leadership. It 
remains to be seen whether the both overt and covert support for 
Brash's leadership will continue if his personal ratings continue to 
head south. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Conference speeches by senior MPs at the conference spoke 
to general objectives and were largely centrist in character. This 
could signal a more moderate approach by National going forward, 
acknowledging that it cannot win the next election without securing 
a share of the center ground. However, the question remains whether 
Brash's right-wing instincts are in step with those of his senior 
colleagues.  This, too, could affect his hold on the leadership in 
the months ahead. 
 
McCormick