VZCZCXRO8033
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHVI #2096 1941539
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131539Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4230
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS VIENNA 002096 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS AND INR/EU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS SET FOR OCTOBER 1 
 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified. 
 
¶1. (SBU) On July 12, following weeks of speculation 
about the date of the national parliamentary elections 
this fall, all four floor leaders of the parties 
represented in parliament agreed on a motion calling for 
elections on October 1.  On July 14, the four parties 
will adopt the motion in the last parliamentary plenary 
before the summer recess.  During the next two weeks, 
the cabinet and parliamentary steering committee will 
set deadlines and modalities for the October 1 election. 
 
Polls show Schuessel comfortably ahead 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Several opinion polls taken over the past few 
months show Chancellor Schuessel's People's Party (OVP) 
clearly ahead (39-42 percent) of the rival Social 
Democrats (35-36 percent), with the Greens a distant 
third (11-13 percent).  The Freedom Party/FPO comes in 
fourth (5-8 percent).  The FPO spin-off BZO (currently 
in coalition with the OVP) and the anti-EU gadfly Hans- 
Peter Martin are both slightly below the threshold of 
four percent required to enter parliament. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The OVP lead in opinion polls is partly a 
result of Chancellor Schuessel's incumbency bonus, 
recently burnished by his performance during Austria's 
EU Presidency.  Despite some notable weaknesses in his 
cabinet team, Schuessel will also be able to bank on the 
popularity of key ministers, primarily Finance Minster 
Karl-Heinz Grasser, but also Foreign Minister Ursula 
Plassnik and Agriculture Minister Erwin Proell. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Schuessel's current advantage is primarily due, 
however, to the crisis of the Social Democrats (SPO) in 
connection with the scandal in the BAWAG bank, which the 
SPO's trade union allies own.  SPO Chairman Gusenbauer 
has been trying, with little success so far, to distance 
the party from the union's problems.  Instead, he has 
antagonized SPO faction affiliated with the labor 
unions.  In the long run, Gusenbauer's tack may help 
reform the SPO by freeing it of its trade union legacy. 
But it appears unlikely that the SPO will recover from 
the BAWAG fallout in time for the election. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Polls predict up to 13 percent for the Greens 
(up from 9 percent in 2002) -- but the party has a track 
record of coming up short of expectations on Election 
Day.  Under its grandfatherly leader, Alexander van der 
Bellen, the party appears more unified than in previous 
elections.  However, with most of its leaders over 50, 
it may be hard to continue to attract younger voters. 
Observers believe the Green leadership, despite its 
protestations to the contrary, is eager to join a 
coalition with Schuessel's OVP, but this risks reviving 
internal tensions between left-wingers and pragmatists. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Freedom Party appears set to win enough 
votes to secure parliamentary seats.  However, party 
leader Heinz Christian Strache's strident anti-immigrant 
rhetoric has prompted other parties to preclude any 
coalition with the FPO.  Joerg Haider's FPO spin-off, 
the Alliance Future Austria (BZO), with its new lead 
candidate Peter Westenthaler, may fail to reach the 4 
percent necessary to enter parliament.  Observers expect 
maverick Hans-Peter Martin (whose EU-critical agenda 
enjoys the full support of the country's all-important 
tabloid "Kronenzeitung") to run.  He would likely siphon 
off protest votes from the SPO, BZO and FPO, but might 
also fall short of the goal of entering parliament. 
 
McCAW