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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 003814 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
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CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
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TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
ARTICLES: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Top play) (Excerpts) 
Eve., July 7, 2006 
 
Discussions of North Korea's ballistic missile launches are 
continuing at the United Nations. The Chinese government yesterday 
proposed a chairman's statement it drafted at the UN. This 
chairman's statement has less binding force than a resolution 
proposed by Japan, the United States, and other countries. The 
resolution is designed to impose sanctions against North Korea. On 
the other hand, China's move is apparently intended to check 
hard-liners against North Korea. Japan is strongly opposing China 
and aims to push for the resolution. Amid North Korea's harsh 
criticism of Japan's sanction measures, diplomats of major countries 
who are concerned about another launching of a missile by North 
Korea are contacting each other and discussing the issue. The US and 
Russia are arranging a summit meeting. Japan's Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs (MOFA) Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director-General 
Kenichiro Sasae will arrive in Beijing this afternoon. 
 
Japan opposes China's proposal 
 
Hiroyuki Nakamae, New York 
 
During a meeting of the permanent UN Security Council (UNSC) members 
plus six countries, including Japan, China proposed a chairman's 
statement, eliminating most of de facto sanction measures covered by 
the Japan-initiated resolution condemning North Korea, for instance, 
a halt to providing funds and technologies leading to missile 
development. Unlike the resolution, the chairman's statement has no 
binding force, so it does not obligate the member nations to abide 
by what it states. Japan and the US proceed to get the resolution 
adopted as quickly as possible at the UNSC. Whether coordination 
will be made between the two proposals remains to be seen. 
 
The resolution proposed by Japan, the US and other countries is 
created in accordance with the UN Charter's Article 7, a provision 
that enables the member nations to impose economic sanctions in 
order to secure the effectiveness of the contents of the resolution. 
In addition, the resolution is in effect designed to impose 
sanctions on North Korea by calling on the member nations to stop 
providing funds and technologies to the North. 
 
The details of the chairman's statement proposed by China have yet 
to be made clear. 
 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
 
TOKYO 00003814  002 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 3) (Full) 
July 7, 2006 
 
Hiroyuki Nakamae, New York 
 
Horse-trading over whether to boost pressure on North Korea is 
intensifying at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The 
United States, teaming up with Japan and some countries, aim to get 
a resolution condemning North Korea adopted at the UNSC. Meanwhile, 
China and Russia, both friendly to North Korea and permanent UNSC 
members with a veto right, are taking a cautious stand toward 
adopting such a resolution. Building a consensus to support the 
resolution seems likely to hit a snag. What will happen next in the 
UNSC? We l provide three conceivable scenarios below. 
 
Scenario 1: UNSC adopts resolution 
 
A resolution, if adopted, obligates the member nations to fulfill 
their duties specified in the UN Charter. An adopted resolution is 
viewed as the strongest expression of the UN's intent. The 
resolution drafted primarily by Japan and the US calls for North 
Korean to immediate halt its missile development and test-launches. 
The resolution also urges UN members to take the de facto 
retaliatory actions. 
 
If the resolution is adopted, the international community, following 
the UN's seal of approval, will effectively encircle North Korea, an 
act seen as putting strong pressure on that country. 
 
China and Russia, however, seek only to issue a chairman's 
statement, which has less binding force than a resolution. Many 
member states are of the opinion that a resolution is less likely to 
be adopted. Meanwhile, US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton told 
reporters yesterday morning (late at night that same day, Japan 
time), prior to an ambassador level UNSC meeting, that the draft 
resolution is rallying "strong support from a broad range of 
nations." "Nations that don't favor the resolution have the right to 
abstain (from voting)," Bolton added, indicating his enthusiasm 
about getting the resolution adopted. 
 
"China and Russia cannot approve North Korea's continuing to launch 
missiles," Prime Minister Junichio Koizumi told reporters yesterday, 
underscoring his intention to earnestly work on China and Russia to 
dissuade them from opposing the resolution. 
 
Scenario 2: Chairman's statement condemning North Korea 
 
A chairman's statement is a means to express the consensus of the 
UNSC members, but it does not have binding force, though it has a 
warning effect. 
 
TOKYO 00003814  003 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
 
In order to adopt a chairman's statement, the UNSC in principle 
needs to obtain a unanimous agreement, so if China or Russia, which 
are both negative about retaliatory action, raise a clear objection, 
the statement cannot be adopted. In order to make it easy for China 
and Russia to approve the release of the chairman's statement, "The 
statement should be considerably toned down," a diplomatic source at 
the UN said. 
 
Even if a chairman's statement is adopted, there is the possibility 
that the situation will not be resolved soon. Instead, it may be 
prolonged like the case of Iran's nuclear program. Discussion at the 
UNSC would be stalled. 
 
Immediately after the missile launches, Japan announced its own 
sanction measures. Japan, the US, and Europe may join hands in the 
end to form a "coalition of the willing" and impose sanctions on 
North Korea. 
 
In this case, retaliatory measures may not be effective enough 
because Japan cannot obtain cooperation from its neighbors, China 
and South Korea. 
 
Scenario 3: Only a press statement released 
 
A press statement has a certain effect, but it is the weakest form 
for the UNSC to express its intent. The release of a press statement 
implies that there is discord in the UNSC and reveals the existence 
of discord outside the UNSC, as well. 
 
When North Korea test-fired a Taepodong-1 ballistic missile in 1998, 
China disapproved of the adoption of a resolution or a chairman's 
statement. So, only a press statement expressing concerns was 
released. This came, in part because the Clinton administration at 
the time wanted to avoid actions that might irritate North Korea, 
because it was emphasizing the resolution of the nuclear issue. 
 
In the current situation, China and Russia are unlikely to concede 
(to the call of some countries to issue a resolution), because both 
countries are expected to accept the release of a chairman's 
statement. 
 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
 
SHUKAN SHINCHO (Pages 17-18) (Full) 
July 13, 2006 
 
Tomiyachi is a tiny village facing the Japan Sea in the city of 
Tsugaru in Aomori Prefecture. Spread across its flat plain, as far 
 
SIPDIS 
as the eye can see are barns, fields and paddies. It looks like the 
kind of sleepy farm village that artists draw, yet if you look off 
 
TOKYO 00003814  004 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
to the side of the farm road in this village, a surprise is in store 
for you. 
 
What suddenly jumps up before you is a sign in English with the word 
"Warning" on it. If you fearfully approach the place, you can see 
brawny foreigners carrying pistols and rifles and swinging around 
with angry looks on their faces. 
 
If we first back up and explain the situation, the location used to 
be a small detachment of the Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF). There 
used to be approximately 300 ASDF personnel stationed there to 
operate Patriot missiles, but since June 23, a portion of this 
facility was borrowed by the US military to set up X-Band radar, the 
state-of-the-art anti-missile radar, which has only been installed 
so far in two bases in the world. 
 
Although such an installation is probably unavoidable given the 
present situation of North Korea being ready to fire missiles at any 
moment, the sign on the fence clearly identifies the area as a "U.S. 
Army Installation." Although the area was borrowed briefly from the 
ASDF, no matter how you look at it, it seems to be a US military 
base. Moreover, the road along the base is a city highway, connected 
to the seashore and used daily. The local residents pass along this 
road so that they can go enjoy fishing. Still, according to a 
resident who lives close by, "Recently, when I passed along that 
road, I was glared at by the soldiers there who sounded off in 
English. It seemed like they were telling me to stop." 
 
A tranquil village in one night was transformed into a US base town. 
From the 26th, an area was designated a flight-restricted zone, and 
what's more, this kind of explanation came from a source connected 
to the Defense Agency: "Officially, the only military personnel are 
radar technicians, but the guards are civilian contractors. These 
civilians are the ones who are armed with guns." 
 
However, according to the warning sign, it is prohibited to take 
photos even from the road or to have such in one's possession. If 
that so, since Shukan Shincho has taken photos (featured in this 
article), as you can see, what will happen to us? 
 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
 
MAINICHI (Page 10) (Full) 
July 6, 2006 
 
By Akihiko Tanaka, professor of international political science at 
Tokyo University 
 
North Korea's missile launches might be likened to a mischievous act 
 
TOKYO 00003814  005 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
by a fretful, ignored child wanting to draw attention to himself. 
Otherwise, I cannot fathom any intentions from that country. There 
may be some internal trouble. 
 
Test-firing missiles without prior notice clearly violates 
international rules, as well as the Japan-North Korea Pyongyang 
Declaration. Such an act also goes against the six-party talks that 
are aimed at resolving the issue of North Korea's nuclear program. 
The premise for the six-party talks is a moratorium on ballistic 
missile tests. It is only natural and appropriate for the United 
Nations Security Council (UNSC) to criticize North Korea. But it 
would be difficult (for the UNSC) to take action other than 
criticizing that country unless the Chinese government approves a 
resolution condemning North Korea. 
 
China, the host of the six-party talks, must have been displeased by 
the missile launches. All the more because China had until recently 
told the United States and Japan not to take a tough stance against 
North Korea, it may probably feel it has now lost face. The same 
holds true of South Korea. Both China and South Korea will find it 
difficult to assume a conciliatory attitude toward North Korea for a 
while. The US is likely to further toughen the hard-line stance it 
has taken since last September. Japan, too, which has just decided 
to impose sanctions on the North, will take a firmer attitude. 
 
The international situation in this sense will be charged with 
uncertainties, but we need to be calm in thinking about this 
situation, because this sort of tension has continued since 2002. 
The only course for North Korea is to announce that it will abolish 
all nuclear weapons and return to the six-party talks 
unconditionally. 
 
My concern is whether North Korea can make such a rational decision. 
In criticizing North Korea, the UN must make Kim Jong Il fully 
realize that the act he has taken now is nonproductive and 
accomplishes nothing. Japan and the US will not change their stands. 
So, the key to this situation lies in China's next move. 
 
DPRK expects a policy switch of Bush administration 
 
By Masao Okonogi, professor of international political science at 
Keio University 
 
North Korea's desire is to hold bilateral talks with the US for 
normalization of diplomatic relations, including the resolution of 
the nuclear issue. This desire remains the same. The North's message 
contained in its missile launches is that there is no other choice 
but for it to advance nuclear and missile development programs if 
(the US) does not respond to bilateral talks. This is the same as 
the North's past message. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003814  006 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
But the timing of the launches and the way the missiles were 
launched were different from past patterns taken by the North.  In 
order to maximize the impact of missile launching, North Korea 
should have had in mind the off-year elections in the US or the US 
presidential election. But this time it did not. It launched seven 
missiles, including Scud and Rodong missiles. The launches appeared 
to be a kind of a military exercise. In other words, the North, 
since the US refuses to negotiate with it, feels it has been driven 
into a corner and must resort to a violent measure. 
 
One can also see the missile launches as the result of some kind of 
key decision made internally over such questions as who will succeed 
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, and North Korea demonstrating to 
the world the unity of the nation. I don't think there is internal 
discord in North Korea. 
 
The missile launches are untenable for China and South Korea, but 
how far they will fall into line if Japan and the US come up with a 
tough resolution at the UNSC remains to be seen. Should North 
Korea's political system collapse, China would be greatly affected, 
so it would remain reluctant to drive North Korea in the corner. The 
same holds true of South Korea. 
 
The launches are not the climax but only Act 1 in North Korea's 
brinkmanship. My understanding is that North Korea has begun playing 
a long game. I would not be surprised if a similar incident happens 
again this fall. 
 
I wonder if North Korea expects the US to modify its North Korea 
policy as a result of a growing criticism in the US Congress and 
other circles that the Bush administration has failed in its North 
Korea policy. If this does not happen, the North may wait for the 
next presidential election. If such is the case, it would be 
difficult to resume the six-party talks for the time being. 
 
More calls for Abe as successor to Koizumi likely 
 
By Takashi Mikuriya, professor of Japanese political history at 
Tokyo University 
 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is really lucky. Amid such 
uncertainties as the Diet situation and the abduction issue, North 
Korea has again emerged as the enemy. So, his administration will 
now gain steam instead of losing it. He might be regaining his 
political vigor in thinking about how best to use this opportunity. 
 
This situation will affect the so-called Yasukuni issue. The prime 
minister may delay a visit to Yasukuni Shrine to sometime after the 
anniversary of the end of the war on Aug. 15 in an effort not to 
further strain relations with China out of national-security 
considerations. Conversely, he may pay homage at the shrine on Aug. 
 
TOKYO 00003814  007 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
15, toughening his stand against China for its inability to contain 
North Korea. 
 
When it comes to the impact on the LDP presidential race to 
determine who will succeed Prime Minister Koizumi, Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Shinzo Abe is placed at an advantage. The number of 
 
SIPDIS 
supporters is likely to increase, faced with the questions of how 
Japan should deal with a rogue state and strengthen the Japan-US 
alliance. 
 
The key to this is whether Koizumi will give Abe a free hand to deal 
with the issue of missile launches. Koizumi may leave the issue 
entirely in Mr. Abe's hands, even though that would mean discarding 
the Japan-North Korea Pyongyang Declaration. Mr. Abe then could 
handily beat other contenders if he demonstrated his capabilities in 
the coming two months. 
 
Based on his remarks about the missile issue, Foreign Minister Taro 
Aso appears to be tougher than Abe. But Aso has made strong remarks 
only because he is running behind Abe in the LDP presidential 
campaign. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda's moves draw 
the public's attention, but given his current status, he cannot say 
anything nor can he produce actual results. 
 
Should this situation gave a boost to Abe and an Abe administration 
is born, calls for a switch to a younger generation of politicians 
would increase even further. Ichiro Ozawa, head of the Democratic 
Party of Japan (Minshuto), who is the same age as Koizumi, would be 
put in a difficult situation. 
 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 26) (Abridged slightly) 
July 7, 2006 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe held four press conferences on 
July 5 in the wake of the missile launches by North Korea. The 
missile launches provided Abe, a leading hawk on North Korea, with a 
golden opportunity to boost his presence as a promising post-Koizumi 
contender. In dealing with the launches, the government also played 
up close defense cooperation with the US military. The missile 
launches apparently worked favorably for Abe and the government. 
 
On July 5, Abe arrived at Kantei (Prime Minister's Official 
Residence) at 4:30 a.m., ahead of other ministers, and held an 
emergency press conference shortly after 6 a.m. to announce the 
North's missile launches. Abe held three more press conferences that 
day. He even released a statement condemning the North, an unusual 
case. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003814  008 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
Political analyst Minoru Morita described Abe's action this way: 
 
"The North didn't fire the missiles into Japanese waters, but Abe 
handled the case as if Pyongyang was waging a war. He went too far. 
He obviously thinks this is a good chance to pave the way for an Abe 
cabinet, figuring that the more he pounds on the North in the press 
meetings, the more he will win public support. Abe released a formal 
statement instead of a comment, which was more appropriate. This 
also tells us that he is using the missile launches on behalf of the 
LDP presidential race." 
 
Kichiya Kobayashi, also a political analyst, took this view: 
 
"The LDP is split on Japan's response to the missile launches. It is 
true that some LDP members share Abe's view that Japan should take 
harsh measures against the North. But the launches do not 
necessarily give an advantage to Abe. The North violated the 
Pyongyang Declaration, which had been signed by the top Japanese and 
North Korean leaders in the presence of Abe, who was deputy chief 
cabinet secretary at the time. So Abe is not totally blameless. 
Abe's extreme reaction exposed the fact that his camp consists 
mainly of junior members who have no strategist in their midst." 
 
The missile launches, however, seems to have set the stage for Abe 
to highlight his stock argument and implement his hard-edged policy 
toward North Korea. His popularity is likely to grow. 
 
The missile launches have also given momentum to Japan's national 
defense. The government played up the close intelligence sharing 
between Japan and the United States. Moves to pursue greater 
cooperation and arms buildup may follow. 
 
Japan and the United States this summer will conclude an 
intelligence sharing agreement on a missile defense (MD) system to 
intercept ballistic missiles. This will allow the Air Self-Defense 
Force to deploy ground-based PAC-3 missiles next March. 
 
The launches also sparked calls for Japan to enhance capabilities to 
gather intelligence independently without relying on the US 
military. US early warning satellites first detected the launches. 
The intelligence was then conveyed to the Self-Defense Forces via US 
Forces Japan and other channels. Japanese information-gathering 
satellites are devoid of such functions. 
 
The LDP is considering presenting a bill allowing Japan to use space 
for military purposes for self-defense by shifting the space 
development policy, which has been limited for nonmilitary 
purposes. 
 
Test operation of an early-warning system called X-band radar, a key 
component in the MD system, has started ahead of original schedule. 
 
TOKYO 00003814  009 OF 009 
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/07/06 
Part-1 
INDEX: 
(1) China proposes a chairman's statement at UNSC, aims to check 
hard-liners; Sanction measures eliminated 
(2)  War of nerves unfolding at UNSC over whether to adopt 
resolution condemning DPRK 
(3)  US military's secret base in northern Honshu 
(4)  Comments by experts on North Korea's missile launches: Tokyo 
University Prof. Tanaka -- China, too, displeased with missile 
launches 
(5)  Abe, Japan-US military alliance benefiting from North Korean 
missile launches 
 
The US military's interception of a US-bound Taepodong-2 based on 
Japan's intelligence and Japan doing the same might constitute an 
exercise of the right of collective-self defense under the Japanese 
Constitution. If matters continue as they have until now, the 
integration of the SDF and US Forces Japan will continue. 
 
Cautiousness urged 
 
One military expert said: 
 
"The US military has little experience in intercepting missiles. It 
is not clear whether the North intentionally fired those missiles 
(apart from its regular military training) and whether they failed. 
We must not rush to judgment before those points become clear." 
 
Masaaki Gabe, a professor of international politics at the 
University of the Ryukyus, also commented: 
 
"Are the North Korean missiles really a threat? They might be just 
playing with them. I don't think it's appropriate to pursue military 
buildup by exaggerating the North Korean threat. We have to know the 
North's true intentions first. It is meaningless to hastily respond 
to the launches. 
 
SCHIEFFER