VZCZCXRO9189
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHFK RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHPB RUEHVC
DE RUEHIN #2480 2050900
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 240900Z JUL 06 ZDK
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1223
INFO RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0033
RUEHGT/AMEMBASSY GUATEMALA 0111
RUEHMU/AMEMBASSY MANAGUA 0122
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 0042
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA 0087
RUEHSJ/AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE 0120
RUEHTG/AMEMBASSY TEGUCIGALPA 0128
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 002480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2031 
TAGS: PGOV TW NU
SUBJECT: TAIWAN FRETTING OVER NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d) 
 
¶1. Action request--see paragraph 8. 
 
¶2. (C) Summary: Taiwan MOFA official Ko Jai-son expressed 
concern to AIT that multiple candidates opposing Sandinista's 
Daniel Ortega in the November Nicaraguan presidential 
election would give the election to Ortega, resulting in a 
switch in diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.  Ko 
urged the US to encourage the anti-Sandinista candidates to 
cooperate and field a single candidate against Ortega.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶3. (C) Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Director 
General for Central and South American Affairs Jai-son Ko 
requested a meeting with AIT on July 19 to express concern 
that the recent death of Daniel Ortega's Sandinista rival 
gives the Sandinistas a good chance to win a slim victory in 
the upcoming election. Ko cited polls obtained by MOFA that 
show Ortega's standing has risen to 30 percent, a six point 
advantage over his nearest challenger, Eduardo Montealegre, 
and nine points ahead of Montealegre's rival for the 
anti-Sandinista vote, Jose Rizo. 
 
¶4. (C) Ko asked the US to convince Montealegre to accept a 
recent proposal from Rizo that calls for the candidate lowest 
in the polls at a mutually agreed date to withdraw from the 
race. Ko said MOFA has sent instructions to TECRO to pursue 
this issue with DOS and is confident that if Taipei and the 
US can persuade Montealegre to accept the proposal then the 
anti-Sandinistas will remain in power. 
 
¶5. (C) Ko told AIT that Venezuelan influence in Nicaragua is 
growing and could further tilt the election in Ortega's 
favor. Ko claimed Venezuela has been helping the Sandinistas 
shore up support among rural voters by providing the 
Sandinistas with cheap fertilizer and other oil products to 
distribute throughout the countryside. Ko further commented 
these are the same tactics Taipei has seen Venezuelan 
President Chavez use with Nicaragua's neighbors to expand 
Venezuela's clout in the region. 
 
¶6. (C) Ko added that for now the PRC has not meddled in the 
Nicaraguan elections, but noted that MOFA is watching 
carefully developments in the wake of exchanges between the 
PRC Foreign Minister and Costa Rican, Nicaraguan, and 
Honduran representatives that were brokered by the Mexican 
Foreign Minister in May. Ko said at the meeting in Mexico 
City the PRC threatened the three countries would "get no 
economic benefits in the future" from the PRC if they 
continue to recognize Taipei. Ko said Mexico is working to 
arrange further meetings between representatives from the 
three countries and the PRC at the UN, but Nicaragua has so 
far refused to attend after taking the PRC comments in Mexico 
as an "insult." 
 
¶7. (C) Despite MOFA concerns over the future of its formal 
diplomatic ties to Nicaragua and other Latin American allies, 
Taipei continues to push an aggressive economic diplomacy by 
promoting free trade agreements with partners in the region. 
Last week Taiwan's cabinet approved a newly-signed FTA with 
Nicaragua, which is the third FTA Taiwan has negotiated with 
its allies, following Panama and Guatemala. 
 
Comment and Action Request 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) MOFA officials expect that a Sandinista government 
will switch recognition to the PRC and result in the loss of 
a key diplomatic ally in Central America for Taiwan.  AIT 
would appreciate Department guidance on discussing this issue 
with Taiwan officials. 
YOUNG