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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4929
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5822
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1889
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL 9970
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0801
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0894
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 001837 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: PSP-PRIAN FORM ALLIANCE; 
INDIGENOUS FRAGMENTATION CONTINUES 
 
REF: QUITO 01772 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  Lucio Gutierrez, PSP and Alvaro Noboa's 
PRIAN announced on July 26 that the two parties would form an 
alliance for the presidential ticket.  Gutierrez publicly 
asked Noboa to reenter the presidential race at the top of 
the PRIAN-PSP ticket.  Noboa, however, has not responded 
publicly but is rumored to be considering the proposal. 
Meanwhile, a contentious Pachakutik primary election for a 
congressional seat from the Cotopaxi Province on July 21 
revealed deepening internal party tensions and a fractured 
far-left approaching national elections.  End Summary. 
 
PRIAN & PSP Unite 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The PSP and PRIAN announced on July 26 that they 
would form an alliance for the Oct 15 presidential election. 
PRIAN will reportedly provide the presidential candidate 
while PSP will fill the vice presidential slot -- probably 
with Lucio Gutierrez's brother Gilmar.  An announcement on 
the selected candidates is expected later this week. 
 
¶3.  (U) Confirmation of the alliance comes after a week of 
speculation by political insiders and the media, and is 
rumored to have opened the door for Alvaro Noboa's return to 
the campaign trail.  Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez publicly 
asked Noboa to consider reentering the race.  Noboa, however, 
has not responded publicly, but is rumored to be considering 
the proposal. 
 
¶4. (U) In a meeting with PolOffs on July 19, PRIAN 
congressman and national coordinator for elections Vicente 
Taiano noted that the PRIAN and PSP parties share a similar 
brand of populism (including a commitment to market-based 
solutions and free trade) and that Gutierrez and Noboa get 
along very well.  He also commented that an alliance with 
Abdala Bucaram's PRE was very unlikely, as their style of 
populism -- especially with respect to economic policy -- was 
too different. 
 
¶5.  (U) Taiano also said that many in the PRIAN were upset 
with Noboa's decision to dropout, but claimed that Noboa had 
done so to save the country from the instability that would 
be caused by those who would never accept Noboa's presidency. 
 Taiano said that Noboa would likely not run for president 
again, but did not rule out that Noboa could be convinced to 
rejoin the race. 
 
Pachakutik's Internal Woes Continue 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Pachakutik's refusal to ally themselves with Rafael 
Correa's presidential candidacy and instead name their own 
candidate, Luis Macas, has left many indigenous voters 
undecided.  Pachakutik Congressman Jorge Guaman told PolOff 
on July 20 that the poll numbers for Macas do not accurately 
depict his popularity, but conceded that there was worry that 
a large segment of the indigenous would support Correa. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Antonio Ricaurte, a former Pachakutik politician 
who left the party to join the Leon Roldos (RED-ID) campaign, 
told PolOff on July 20 that he thought Macas would only 
garner a maximum of 4% of the vote, and that Auki Tituana, 
the popular Pachakutik mayor of Cotacachi, was furious that 
he did not receive Pachakutik's presidential nomination. 
Ricaurte also commented that Pachakutik's unwillingness to 
enter an alliance with Correa would cause them to lose 
several Congressional seats. 
 
¶8.  (U) Raul Ilaquiche, the former vice president of the 
ECUARUNARI indigenous organization, defeated incumbent 
Congressman and Vice President of the Congress, Jorge Guaman, 
and Carlos Riofrio, a close associate of Cotopaxi Prefect 
Cesar Umajinga, in the July 21 primary elections for the 
Pachakutik congressional seat for Cotopaxi Province. 
 
¶9.  (U) The contentious primary in the indigenous heartland 
province, which revealed a deepening division within the 
party, was bitterly denounced by both Guaman and Umajinga, 
who accused Ilaquiche's wife, Lourdes Tiban, the Executive 
Secretary of the Council for Development of Ecuador's 
 
SIPDIS 
Indigenous Nations and People (CODENPE), of buying Ilaquiche 
the election.  Lourdes Tiban had recently donated 3.8 million 
USD to various communities in Cotopaxi through the agency. 
 
Ilaquiche defended his wife, saying that it was her 
obligation as Executive Secretary of CODENPE to distribute 
resources to indigenous communities. 
 
Don't Talk to the Gringos 
------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) There appears to be division within the ranks of 
Pachakutik and Confederation of Ecuadorian Indian Nations 
(CONAIE) on the level of interaction they should have with 
the Embassy.  Luis Macas, head of CONAIE, has refused 
invitations from the Ambassador, and has advised his 
organization to avoid dialogue with the USG.  However, CONAIE 
Vice President Santiago de la Cruz and Congressman Jorge 
Guaman each expressed interest in open dialogue to PolOff. 
Additionally, spurned Pachakutik candidate-hopeful, Cotacachi 
Mayor Auki Tituana, recently invited the Ambassador to visit 
Cotacachi in late August. 
 
 
Latest Poll Figures 
------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) A nationwide "Informe Confidencial" poll published 
in Quito daily "El Comercio" on July 22 showed that 64% of 
Ecuadorian voters remain undecided.  When asked which 
candidate they would pick if the election were today, 29% of 
respondents chose Leon Roldos (RED-ID), 17% chose Cynthia 
Viteri (PSC), and 10% picked Correa.  Another poll, published 
by CEDATOS showed that 41 % of voters were undecided and that 
Roldos led with 23%, and was followed by Viteri with 16% and 
Correa with 11%. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The PRIAN-PSP alliance, with Noboa at the helm and 
with Gutierrez' support, could produce a strong showing in 
the October elections, possibly making it to the second 
round. Gutierrez and Noboa had each been receiving about 15% 
support in polls, and separately they garnered about 5 
million votes in the last election. A strong PRIAN-PSP 
alliance would likely harm Viteri's PSC and to a lesser 
extent Correa. With Pachakutik's continuing fragmentation, 
indigenous votes will probably be spread among various 
candidates, undermining their potential power as a unified 
bloc behind any single candidate. 
BROWN