VZCZCXYZ0015
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #1772/01 2002233
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 192233Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4874
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5808
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1874
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL 9957
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0787
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0860
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 001772 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: GUTIERREZ BARRED, POPULIST 
ALLIANCE UNCERTAIN 
 
REF: QUITO 01707 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  The Constitutional Court on July 18 ruled 
that ex-President Lucio Gutierrez could not run for public 
office until 2007.  With Gutierrez blocked from running, a 
PRIAN-PSP alliance is a strong possibility and could produce 
a strong showing in this year's elections.  In the interim, 
however, Alvaro Noboa's support has shifted to presidential 
hopeful Cynthia Viteri in Quito, and Rafael Correa is gaining 
points along the Coast.  Center-left candidate Leon Roldos 
maintains a slight edge over the two in both regions.  The 
GOE has requested OAS election assistance, with up to 50 
observers expected to arrive 25 days before elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
Gutierrez's Candidacy Barred 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) opened 
candidate inscriptions on July 16 for the October 15 general 
elections.  The inscription period ends on August 15. 
Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez was the first candidate to 
attempt registration, presenting his name to the TSE on July 
¶16.  The Constitutional Court (TC), however, upheld an 
earlier judgment and ruled in a 6-3 decision on July 18 that 
he could not run for public office at any level until 2007. 
 
¶3.  (U) The TSE in 2005 barred Gutierrez from running for 
political office, claiming that he violated campaign 
financing laws in accepting an unreported USD 1,051 in funds 
from international sources in his 2002 presidential campaign. 
 Earlier this year, however, Judge Nelson Maza of the Napo 
Province suspended the TSE's judgment, giving Gutierrez 
authorization to participate in the 2006 elections.  The TC's 
July 18 ruling reversed Maza's ruling, thereby closing the 
book on Gutierrez's candidacy.  In his defense, Gutierrez 
claimed that the contributions came in August of 2001 when 
his political party, The Patriotic Society (PSP), did not yet 
exist (PSP registered as a political party in February 2002). 
 
¶4.  (U) Even if the TC had not ruled against Gutierrez, 
numerous obstacles remained in his path to inscription. 
Foremost was Article 98 of the Ecuadorian Constitution which 
prohibits presidents from serving consecutive terms. 
Gutierrez contended that the constitution does not provide 
guidance on his situation, and argued that the 2003-2007 
presidential term for which he was elected ended April 20, 
2005 when a coup forced him to step down and Alfredo Palacio 
assumed the presidency. (Reftel) 
 
Noboa's Withdrawal Causes Shift in Polls 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) An Opinion Profiles poll published in El Universo 
newspaper found that Noboa's withdrawal from the presidential 
race is currently benefiting Viteri and Correa.  The poll, 
which surveyed 514 individuals, shows Viteri at 5.4% in Quito 
and 21.6% in Guayaquil in June, jumping to 10.1% in Quito in 
July and rising slightly to 22% in Guayaquil.  Correa 
meanwhile, shows only a slight rise from June to July in 
Quito (from 6.8% to 7.2%) but a large jump in Guayaquil (from 
6.6% to 12.1%).  Support for Roldos rose slightly in Quito 
(20% to 20.7%), and dropped slightly in Guayaquil (23.9% to 
22.3%) during the same period.  The survey found that 35% of 
respondents remain undecided. 
 
Noboa's Support Base Up for Grabs? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Political scientist and FLACSO professor Simon 
Pachano told PolOffs on July 18 that a populist alliance 
between Gutierrez's PSP and Noboa's PRIAN is a strong 
possibility.  He was less certain, however, that the PRE 
party would participate.  Pachano said that PRIAN was waiting 
for the TC's decision on whether Gutierrez would be allowed 
to run before announcing a new election strategy.  Pachano 
believes that a PSP-PRIAN alliance, with the right 
candidates, would be strong enough to alter current election 
dynamics forcing a three-way Roldos-ID, PSC, PSP-PRIAN 
battle, to which PSC would be the biggest loser.  PolOffs 
spoke with congressman Vicente Taiano of the PRIAN party on 
July 19 who said his party had not yet considered an alliance 
(Septel). 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Pachano said that if the PSP and PRIAN fail to 
 
 
 
unite, the Social Christian Party (PSC) is best placed to 
benefit from Noboa's withdrawal from the presidential race. 
Pachano considers the PRIAN and PSC to be close, both in 
political ideology (center-right) and populist appeal.  He 
believes that PRE is weak and thinks that the PSC, with its 
ability to offer resources and public works, is in a position 
to take most of the PRIAN's votes.  After suffering several 
public rejections of proposals for her vice presidential 
slot, Pachano questioned the strength of Viteri's campaign. 
Viteri, responding to Alfonso Espinosa de los Monteros' July 
14 announcement that he would not run for vice president, 
said that she would select someone by August 10. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Pachano did not think there was any real chance to 
break Ecuador's vicious cycle of ungovernability, but thought 
the Roldos-ID alliance had the best chance as they will 
likely have a strong congressional block.  Pachano predicted 
the ID party would gain or at least maintain their 
Congressional seats, with the PSC party losing some seats. 
 
A Fragmented Pachakutik Pushes Forward 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Indigenous leader and head of indigenous 
development agency CODENPE Lourdes Tiban told PolOff on July 
18 that Luis Macas, the indigenous Pachakutik party candidate 
had chosen a native of Guayaquil as his running mate and 
would be announcing this shortly.  Macas would also soon 
officially register with the TSE, she said.  Tiban said that 
Pachakutik had let the bases decide on the presidential 
candidate and she was at first surprised Auki Tituana, the 
mayor of Cotacachi, did not get the nomination, but said that 
as a national indigenous leader, Macas was much more familiar 
to indigenous.  Pachakutik remains divided, however, with 
some coastal indigenous leaders claiming the Macas candidacy 
was imposed. 
 
GOE Requests OAS Election Assistance 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶10.  (U) The GOE has officially requested OAS election 
assistance; a chief of mission and technical deputy will be 
appointed the week of July 24.  An OAS team of up to 50 
observers is expected to arrive 25 days before elections, 
inviting other member nations to participate.  The TSE still 
needs to produce a regulation for election observations. 
Nationwide the TSE will have 34,618 voting tables in 2144 
voting locations.  There will be 500 voting tables abroad. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) With Gutierrez and Noboa out of the running, the 
electoral panorama should begin to take shape.  However, 
Gutierrez's insistence on inserting himself in the 2006 
elections and the uncertainty of a PSP-PRIAN leaves 
considerable room for a major candidate support shift in 
coming weeks. 
JEWELL