VZCZCXYZ0042
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #1657/01 1872234
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 062234Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4769
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5762
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1848
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUL 9930
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0733
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0778
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 001657 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EC
SUBJECT: AFRO-ECUADORIAN HEARTLAND RIPE FOR POPULIST APPEAL 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The province of Esmeraldas is the largest 
of two centers of the minority Afro-Ecuadorian population. 
The province is also marked by high unemployment and 
underdevelopment, fueling populist electoral appeal.  Since 
2002, the Popular Democratic Movement (MPD), a Marxist 
populist political party, has held sway over the province. 
The presidential race, however, remains unclear. Populist 
candidate Alvaro Noboa's 2002 win in the province over Lucio 
Gutierrez suggests that Noboa, who may win Gutierrez' 
endorsement this time, might again capture considerable 
support.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) During a visit to the northern coastal province of 
Esmeraldas on June 28-30 PolOff met with municipal and 
provincial administrators, electoral officials, political 
party leaders, and civil society representatives to discuss 
preparations for the upcoming national elections.  In public 
outreach events PolOff stressed the importance of voter 
responsibility and citizen participation in the electoral 
process, and highlighted USG investment in the region. 
 
¶3.  (U) Esmeraldas is located in the northwest portion of 
Ecuador and shares a border with Colombia and the Ecuadorian 
provinces of Carchi, Imbabura, Pichincha, and Manabi.  The 
majority of the province's 400,000 residents are 
Afro-Ecuadorian.  The region is a leader in the production of 
tobacco, coffee, cacao, and bananas.  Seventy-six percent of 
the population lives in poverty, making it the poorest 
province in Ecuador.  Few exporting industries are based 
there, and most of the region's raw natural materials are 
transported to other provinces for processing and shipped 
from Guayaquil or Manta. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Esmeraldas' high incidence of poverty, 
unemployment, lack of viable industries, and Plan Colombia 
spillover impact make it a prime target for money laundering 
and narco-terrorist related activity, Mayor Estupinan told 
PolOff and AidOff on June 30.  He expressed concern that the 
impoverished province is on the brink of developing a 
narcotics trade-based economy, and asked that the U.S. do 
more to help.  Former Esmeraldas prefect and current 
congressional candidate Homero Lopez (PRE) and PSC Party 
provincial vice president Arturo Rodriguez agreed.  Both 
expressed the need to develop Esmeraldas, port, and lamented 
the lack of support from the GOE.  All agreed on the need for 
greater regional autonomy, calling the central government 
cumbersome, ineffective, and out of touch with socioeconomic 
realities in Esmeraldas. 
 
Provincial Electoral History 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) The Province of Esmeraldas has approximately 276,000 
registered voters, representing 3 percent of the national 
electorate.  Esmeraldas' extreme poverty and history of weak 
governance and corruption have made voters disaffected and 
open to populist appeal.  In 2004, voters elected Lucia Sosa 
Robinson (MPD) Prefect, beating incumbent Homero Lopez Saud 
of Abdala Bucaram's PRE.  Popular Esmeraldas Mayor Ernesto 
Estupinan Quintero (MPD) easily secured a second term in 2004 
with 62 percent of the vote.  PRIAN populist presidential 
hopeful Alvaro Noboa beat fellow populist Lucio Gutierrez, 
winning 60 percent of the votes in the second round of the 
presidential elections 2002. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Estupinan is credited with cleaning up the 
provincial capital of Esmeraldas and claims to be fighting 
corruption.  Esmeraldas' MPD party currently holds one of the 
province's four congressional seats, three of the seven 
provincial council seats, and eight of the eleven city 
council seats in the provincial capital. At the local level, 
they have been pragmatic, willing partners for USAID and 
other Embassy projects. At the national level, however, the 
MPD pushes an anti-American agenda with extreme leftist and 
populist tendencies.  The MPD opposed the FTA, supported the 
GOE's decision to expel Occidental Petroleum, and has 
routinely called for the closure of the Manta FOL.  The party 
also has complete control over Ecuador's teacher's union and 
the Ministry of Education. 
 
Electoral Preparation Advances 
------------------------------ 
¶7.  (SBU) PolOff met with Esmeraldas Electoral Tribunal (TSE) 
Vice President Gary Espinoza in his office on June 29. 
Espinoza reported normal electoral preparation activity in 
his sector.  He said that the Esmeraldas TSE plans to open 25 
new polling stations in rural areas to help reduce voter 
absenteeism.  Espinoza denied any significant electoral 
fraud, but said that the province had experienced large voter 
address changes in the 2004 local and provincial elections, 
forcing the national TSE to suspended address changes in the 
cities Atacames and Los Rios.  He believes this to be more of 
a problem in mayoral and provincial races, where small 
changes could tip election results.  Espinoza said that 
without regulatory change from Quito, there was little his 
office could do to combat fraudulent address changes. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Espinoza claimed that the TSE's relationship with 
local NGO Citizen Participation's coordinator Piedad Ortiz is 
good, although Ortiz rarely contacts him.  He also saw a need 
to introduce civic participation and voter responsibility 
material into the educational system.  Espinoza asked for 
greater USG assistance in this area, as well as with training 
for TSE workers. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Ortiz told PolOff and AidOff on June 30 that 
election preparations were progressing well, and that her 
office had already begun training local volunteer election 
monitors.  She commended the TSE for establishing new polling 
stations, and confirmed a constructive working relationship 
between the two organizations.  Ortiz said that 100 used 
ballots were discovered in the trash in the 2004 elections, 
and that her office had demanded an investigation, which was 
rebuffed. She also reported that Estupinan and Sosa often 
place political propaganda at completed public works 
projects, a violation of election rules.  Ortiz said that she 
had filed repeated complaints, but nothing had come of them. 
The current MPD leadership often publicly criticizes Citizen 
Participation as "tool of the imperialists" (USG), she said. 
 
Presidential Race Unclear 
------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Government officials, political insiders, and 
civil society leaders all claimed that it was too early to 
name a presidential front-runner in Esmeraldas.  However, the 
area's populist leanings and prior support for Alvaro 
Noboa suggests that he may again attract strong support, 
especially if he wins Gutierrez' endorsement.  Others believe 
that Cynthia Viteri might also delivery a strong showing. 
Center-left candidate Leon Roldos, who is leading in national 
polls, appears to have little support in the province. 
 
Outreach Activity 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) PolOff on June 29 met with the NGO "Permanent 
Women's Forum" of Esmeraldas to show a HBO video on the life 
of Rosa Parks and to discuss participatory democracy.  An 
active, attentive group of over 20 women, several men, and a 
local journalist attended the evening session.  PolOff 
stressed the need to organize and actively participate in the 
electoral process to affect change.  Participants asked what 
the U.S. was doing to help empower Afro-Ecuadorians and asked 
if the Embassy could help connect them with African-American 
organizations that might help with social and economic 
development.  PolOff outlined USG initiatives aimed at 
supporting political participation and highlighted USG 
investments in potable water, sanitation, and other basic 
services.  Audience members were very receptive, emphasizing 
the marginalization of the Afro-Ecuadorian population. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) PolOff on June 29 had an unexpected press 
conference with Esmeraldas Prefect Lucia Sosa.  The event, 
initially scheduled as a private meeting with Sosa, quickly 
morphed into Sosa's own dog-and-pony show.  PolOff was 
immediately bombarded by members of the press upon entering 
Sosa's office, and they remained throughout the 30-minute 
minute exchange.  Sosa, sitting across from PolOff, but 
looking into the cameras, went on a Chavez-style rant about 
the impact of Plan Colombia on Esmeraldas and the need for 
the U.S. to do more.  PolOff expressed continued U.S. support 
for Ecuador in the areas of security and development along 
the northern border, and highlighted investment in basic 
sanitation, potable water, and income generation projects. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Election preparation in Esmeraldas appears to be 
moving forward relatively well given the region's financial 
and capacity limitations.  Government officials, political 
party representatives, and civil society leaders agree that 
residents remain disillusioned by historic GOE neglect and 
corruption and weak governance at the municipal and 
provincial level.  With the highest poverty levels in 
Ecuador, proximity to rebel-held territory in Colombia, and 
continued neglect from the central government, Esmeraldas is 
fertile ground for Colombian narco-terrorist influence and 
populist anti-American rhetoric, underscoring the need for 
USG and GOE engagement and investment in the province. 
JEWELL