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INFO RUEHZH/HAITI COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 1136
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 0779
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0296
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0945
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT AU PRINCE 001343 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM HA
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS:  CHALLENGES AND RISKS 
 
PORT AU PR 00001343  001.3 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Although no date has been set for 
remaining national level elections or the municipal and local 
contests, Prime Minister Alexis has informally suggested that 
all be held together by the end of November.  Both Electoral 
Commission Director General Jacques Bernard and MINUSTAH 
elections chief Gerardo Lechevallier report that it is 
technically feasible to hold the elections by this date if/if 
funding is secured from the international donors.  However, 
both also expressed concerns about the risks of violence and 
insecurity surrounding local races.  The personalization of 
local contests increases the likelihood of conflict, they 
say, while MINUSTAH will be spread thinly in view of the 
number of local contests.  A long-delayed first-round 
legislative race in Grande Saline -- now scheduled for July 
30 -- may provide a preview of the challenges to be faced in 
other elections.  The Grande Saline vote was cancelled twice 
earlier this year due to risks of violence, but has been 
rescheduled for July 30, despite continued tensions in the 
district.  The warnings by Bernard and Lechevallier are a 
useful reminder that, despite the success of the presidential 
and parliamentary elections,  we must not be lulled into a 
false confidence about prospects for local and municipal 
races.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  ADCM and Poloff met with Provisional Electoral 
Council (CEP) Director General (DG) Jacques Bernard July 11 
and with MINUSTAH,s Electoral Assistance Section (EAS) chief 
Gerardo Lechevallier July 13 to review status and plans for 
completing the electoral process in Haiti.  At the national 
level, second round contests to decide the three senate seats 
for the North East Department and ten deputies are pending. 
In addition, in Grande Saline, Artibonite Department, the 
electoral process was halted twice due to violent behavior on 
the part of candidates, poll watchers, and voters 
necessitating a third attempt at a first round contest, 
announced last week by the CEP to be held July 30. 
No date has been announced for the other remaining 
parliamentary and municipal/local contests.  However, Prime 
Minister Alexis informally told the Donors Core Group in June 
that the government wanted to see these remaining races 
completed by November 30. 
 
Grande Saline - Third Time Lucky? 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The CEP announced on July 18 that the 
twice-canceled Grande Saline parliamentary election will be 
held on July 30.  The Grande Saline district was the scene of 
violence during both the February 7 and April 21 election 
days requiring that voting be halted and the voting centers 
closed on both occasions.  The February 7 disturbance 
resulted in one death.  DG Bernard attributes the volatile 
situation existing in Grande Saline to political party and 
familial in-fighting primarily between the Lespwa and Fusion 
candidates.  The state of affairs is further complicated by 
apparently long-simmering family disputes that cut across 
political party lines; three of the eight candidates are 
related.  Some candidates and political parties in the Grande 
Saline district have complained that the voting centers were 
not appropriately distributed on the previous election days. 
The CEP, in a questionable decision according to Bernard, 
agreed to relocate the voting centers for the upcoming 
election.  However, this has only resulted in further 
tension, with one candidate,s supporters cutting off both 
roads into and out of the small commune of Rossignol, where a 
new polling station is to be added.  Lechevallier told us 
July 22 that all candidates had now agreed on the locations 
of the polling centers.  A CEP training session for party 
pollwatchers is scheduled for July 26; if that goes smoothly, 
Lechevallier is hopeful the elections will be peaceful. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) DG Bernard told Emboffs that he thinks it is a 
mistake to go forward now with the Grande Saline election. 
While technically it could be completed, the volatile 
situation in the district argues for caution in proceeding. 
He warned that MINUSTAH may find itself in an untenable 
situation if it intervenes to stop violence in this fraught 
local contest.  There is widespreaad acceptance of MINUSTAH's 
responsibility to shoot gang leaders, he said, but the optics 
will change entirely if MINUSTAH is perceived as "blocking 
innocent Haitians who only want to exercise their democratic 
right to vote."   In addition to these security concerns, 
 
PORT AU PR 00001343  002.3 OF 003 
 
 
Bernard noted that, since it is the rainy season and the 
terrain of the district is predominantly marshy, there will 
be additional logistical complications. 
 
Future Races - Still Technical Challenges 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Bernard stated confidently that the remaining 
parliamentary and municipal/local elections could be held 
approximately 10-12 weeks from a firm announcement of a date 
if the funding was available.  Yet, both he and Lechevallier 
admitted there would be significant technical challenges. 
The municipal elections are for three mayors in each of 143 
municipalities and the local/communal elections include over 
10,000 offices for which at least 40,000 candidates are 
expected.  Because of the multitude and nature of offices 
open, one of the major issues in preparing for the municipal 
and local elections will be the ballot preparation and 
printing.  Lechevallier estimated that 70 days would be 
required for the ballot printing, and that of course this 
could begin only after all candidate registration was 
complete.  He noted a very high error rate with ballot 
preparation in the much-simpler parliamentary contests. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Another complication is that electoral boundaries 
still have to be set between the larger Haitian cities and 
adjacent communes whose borders have blurred over time. 
Poor-record keeping and inconsistent address conventions mean 
that many residents don't really know in which commune they 
reside or should vote.  Lechevalier was guardedly hopeful 
that voter allocation to correct communes could be handled 
using the existing database, without the need to re-register 
any voters.  Determination of the boundaries is also a 
necessary precursor to determining candidate lists, since 
candidates must be residents of the cities/communes where 
they run. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Lechavallier pointed out that it has now been more 
than a year since citizens had an opportunity to register to 
vote.  The rolls are closed since, technically, elections are 
still underway pending completion of the left-over 
parliamentary contests.  But the longer local and municipal 
elections are delayed, the more pressure may build to re-open 
registration.  He estimates that 50,000 Haitians become 
eligible to vote, in addition to those already eligible who 
did not register before but may wish to now.  On a related 
note, Bernard is concerned about a possible move to shift 
responsibility for issuance of voter registration cards from 
the CEP to the Ministry of Justice, as mandated in a decree 
issued by the interim government.  He worries that turning 
this function over to a line ministry risks politicizing the 
registration process. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Bernard and Lechevallier differed significantly 
over the budget required to complete elections.  Bernard's 
budget is USD 13.5 million, which is less than the latest 
MINUSTAH budget of USD 18 million.  Among other issues, 
Bernard faulted the MINUSTAH EAS budget for its inclusion of 
support for "expensive" international staff -- some of whom 
have no clear function during the prolonged wait for 
elections -- and queried whether the MINUSTAH helicopter 
flights to retrieve the process verbaux (official vote 
tallies from each polling place) were necessary and, even if 
so, why the elections budget would be charged for such 
assistance.  Lechevallier notes, on the other hand, that the 
CEP budget includes only $2.5 million for CEP operating 
expenses, which would cover only ten weeks of CEP overhead. 
Neither the DG,s nor MINUSTAH,s budgets include funding for 
institution and capacity building for the CEP.  Bernard 
acknowledged that CEP infrastructure costs about $1 million 
per month, so the longer elections are delayed the higher the 
price tag for keeping the CEP in place.  (Note:  AID's 
Justice, Democracy, and Governance office understands that 
the monthly cost is borne by the GOH, and should not figure 
in MINUSTAH's calculations, but this needs to be clarified. 
End note.) 
 
All Politics is Local 
--------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Both Bernard and Lechevallier warned about the risk 
of violence associated with local and municipal elections. 
 
PORT AU PR 00001343  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Bernard is worried about the security climate that may be 
ushered in by the close and fierce local electoral contests, 
such as he sees already in Grande Saline.  Local contests are 
more personalized.  They involve visible access to community 
resources.  Lechevallier agreed that the municipal and local 
elections present a potentially more emotional situation. 
Due to this, these elections will have to be "scrupulously 
above board."  According to Lechevallier, this means that 
adequate time and money must be invested to assure success. 
Otherwise, in Haiti's 140 communes, "you're going to have 140 
Grandes Salines."  Lechevallier also stated flatly that 
MINUSTAH simply doesn't have the forces to protect the 
estimated 1600 polling centers that will be required for the 
municipal and local contests. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10  (SBU) Comment:  Much work remains, but if the GOH decides 
to proceed with elections by November 30, it appears the CEP 
could hold the remaining parliamentary races and probably the 
local/municipal contests by then -- although it will be 
tight.  In view of the continued, unhelpful, differences in 
the CEP and MINUSTAH electoral budgets, it may be useful to 
have a USG-funded elections expert visit to assess the two 
proposals and assist us and other donors to determine actual 
needs.  Both Bernard and Lechavallier offer a useful warning 
that local and municipal elections are likely to prove more 
complicated and perhaps prone to violence than the 
national-level contests.  We'll watch closely the 
twice-cancelled parliamentary race in Grande Saline as a 
possible preview of what's to come.  End Comment. 
SANDERSON