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RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY 4762
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI PRIORITY 4295
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UNCLAS NAIROBI 003270 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PREL KE
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTIONS: PRO-KIBAKI PARTY WINS 
3/5; KANU PAYS FOR DITCHING ODM ALLIES 
 
REF: NAIROBI 3214 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: NARC-Kenya's victory in three of five July 
24 parliamentary by-elections was a much needed endorsement 
for the Kibaki government following several months of 
setbacks from November's referendum defeat and the public 
exposure of the massive Anglo Leasing corruption scandal. 
The newborn party's success in two traditionally KANU 
constituencies sends a message to the opposition that despite 
the government's shortcomings, KANU cannot go it alone.  The 
Electoral Commission of Kenya's transparent and professional 
polling contrasted with credible reports of bribery and 
inappropriate use of government resources, underscoring that 
administratively Kenya can run a clean election, but the 
politicians are a slower study.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ELECTORAL COMMISSION PERFORMED WELL 
----------------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) Amid allegations of inappropriate use of state 
resources by campaigning NARC-Kenya members, and voter 
bribery on the part of KANU, the July 24 by-elections in five 
Kenyan constituencies -- Nakuru Town near Nairobi, and North 
Horr, Saku, Laisamis, and Moyale, in north Kenya -- proceeded 
successfully, with no incidents of violence or intimidation. 
The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) once again ran a 
transparent, well-regulated election.  At the more than 70 
polling stations visited by coordinated diplomatic observers, 
including from our Mission, electoral officials complied with 
procedures in a professional, non-partisan manner.  Taking 
into account the pastoral population, in the four northern 
constituencies the ECK deployed "mobile polling stations." 
These voting booths were sent to a location determined by 
where voters were concentrated just prior to election day. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Observers noted a high turnout of women voters, 
although no women candidates, including two widows vying for 
the seats of their deceased husbands, were successful.  The 
media, many members of which made the long trip to Marsabit 
and Moyale, are credited with highlighting campaigners' 
abuses,  broadcasting images of a Minister arriving at a 
pre-election rally in Marsabit in an air force plane.  Voters 
in some constituencies were easily able to identify 
government of Kenya vehicles whose license plates had been 
replaced to obscure their official origin.  Vote buying by 
both KANU and NARC-Kenya was documented as well. 
 
KIBAKI GETS A BREAK, FINALLY 
---------------------------- 
¶4.  (SBU) The by-elections were a proving ground for the 2007 
general election.  NARC-Kenya, and hence the Kibaki 
government, has emerged buoyed, confident of its prospects as 
a national party with reach well beyond the Kikuyu heartland. 
 On the last day of campaigning, Kibaki openly endorsed the 
NARC-Kenya candidate, at the same time as the latest public 
opinion poll placed him ahead of his nearest presidential 
competitor, LDP's Kalonzo Musyoka.  KANU, however, has 
suffered a major set back, unable to maintain that its defeat 
in 2002 was simply an aberration.  Whatever expectations 
Kenyans had of the Kibaki government that remain unfulfilled, 
they evidently would not prefer a return of KANU.  The defeat 
in two of four northern constituencies, in which he had 
previously been so influential, is a nail in former president 
Moi's political coffin from which he had tried to exhume 
himself during the run-up to the by-election.  It is also a 
repudiation of Moi's go-it-alone policy for KANU and may mark 
a return to coalition politics for the humbled former ruling 
party. 
 
TAKING STOCK FOR 2007 
--------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) Although the election result may have some effect 
on the government-opposition split in Parliament, more 
significant is how the parties will interpret the outcome in 
formulating their strategies for the 2007 general election. 
The by-election vote is a net loss of two seats for the 
opposition, but the margin between them and the government is 
closer to 20 seats.  This tally of seats, however, only holds 
if NARC, or what's left of it, stays on the government side 
of the aisle.  Reports following the July 24 election suggest 
that disaffection among the remnants of the 2002 coalition is 
growing. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The broader implication of the by-election, given 
most politicians' focus on 2007, is how opposition and 
government will configure themselves for next year. 
NARC-Kenya, newly conceived and supported by a large swathe 
of ministers and pro-government MPs, is yet to proclaim who 
its presidential nominee will be.  Their likely candidate, 
Kibaki, has not formally declared his allegiance to the new 
party.  This may be a technicality - if an MP officially 
changes parties he must be reelected to office - (although 
this rule has not stopped others from abandoning the original 
NARC), or it may be an effort to keep his NARC (Kikuyu) 
support base consolidated by not alienating the NARC elements 
that have not gone over to NARC-Kenya.  That said, NARC-Kenya 
and NARC did both field opposing candidates in some of the 
races, the latter quite unsuccessfully. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) KANU, on the other hand, will have to reconsider 
its reluctance to ally with LDP; although LDP deferred to 
KANU in the four northern contests, KANU's rebuff of the ODM 
alliance cost it the votes of the few LDP supporters there 
are in that region.  This may have made a difference in the 
two races in which the margin was a 1,000 votes or less.  In 
Nakuru, LDP and KANU ran candidates against each other. 
Their total votes, if combined, would have been nearly 
sufficient to defeat the NARC-Kenya candidate, a point LDP's 
Raila Odinga has not failed to make.  KANU will also have to 
rethink Moi's usefulness as a party figurehead.  The former 
president does not have the influence he once did. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT: Another round of polling has passed in 
Kenya without the rigging and bloodshed that characterized 
elections in the country's not-so-distant past.  NARC-Kenya's 
victory in two traditionally KANU domains, as well as in 
Nakuru, as expected, may signal that Kenyans want national, 
multi-ethnic parties instead of ones based on regional and 
tribal considerations.  Nonetheless, NARC-Kenya's performance 
is indelibly stained by the credible allegations that its 
supporters abused their access to government resources.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
¶9. (U) Following is the text of the July 26 press statement 
issued by the diplomatic missions which observed the 
by-elections. 
 
PRESS RELEASE 
 
We, the undersigned Heads of diplomatic missions based in 
Nairobi, were invited by the Electoral Commission of Kenya to 
participate as observers of the by-elections held on 24 July 
in Laisamis, Moyale, Nakuru, North Horr and Saku. Twenty-one 
members of staff from our diplomatic missions, accredited as 
observers by the ECK, visited more than seventy polling 
stations in the five constituencies. 
 
We commend officials and staff of the ECK for their efforts 
to conduct a professional and transparent by-election 
process. Our observers did not witness any instances of 
intimidation or violence at the locations visited on polling 
day. We observed ECK officials consistently complying with 
election regulations in a non-partisan, professional manner. 
 
We are concerned by credible reports of misuse of state 
resources for partisan campaigning by government officials, 
including ministers, in violation of electoral regulations. 
We are also concerned by credible reports of attempted 
bribery of voters by representatives of some political 
parties. We call on leaders of all parties to enforce the 
highest standards of conduct by their members and to ensure 
their members do not engage in such abuses in future 
elections. 
 
We will continue to follow Kenya's democratic process in the 
spirit of partnership that has characterized our support for 
this country and its people. 
 
Canada, the European Commission Delegation, Norway, the 
United Kingdom, and the United States of America. 
HOOVER