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DE RUEHSK #0763/01 2021333
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FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4748
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET EAGR ENRG BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY REPORT - July 21, 2006 
 
 
MINSK 00000763  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by 
Embassy Minsk. 
 
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Elections 
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¶2.  United Opposition Forces Preparing for Early Local Elections 
 
On July 18, Belarusian Popular Front Deputy Chairman Viktor 
Ivashkevich announced that, despite the government's tentative 
scheduling of municipal elections in January 2007, a group of 
allied opposition forces led by former opposition presidential 
candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich is preparing for local elections to 
be held as early as November.  At a meeting with some members of 
his former campaign team, Milinkevich himself described early 
elections as very likely because of rising Russian gas prices and 
local utility bills.  The meeting resulted in an agreement to 
select possible opposition candidates by the end of July and an 
agreement to produce a common manifesto identifying fundamental 
freedoms and the country's independence as their key priorities. 
Milinkevich predicted that that authorities would unlikely allow 
opposition candidates to win seats on local councils but described 
the opposition campaign as a "legal opportunity to talk with 
voters."  The opposition forces will probably nominate between 
3,000 and 5,000 candidates for the local elections. 
 
¶3.  Grodno Chapters of Opposition Parties Sign Cooperation Deal 
 
On July 19, the Grodno city chapters of the opposition United Civic 
Party (UCP) and the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (BSDP) 
"Hramada" signed an accord to conduct a joint political campaign 
and coordinate the chapters' activities in upcoming local 
elections.  Grodno BSDP Chief Vladimir Kiselevich justified the 
agreement on the grounds that UCP and BSDP are the only opposition 
parties that have a strong representation in the region in western 
Belarus and had cooperated in March's presidential election. 
Grodno UCP leader Yury Istomin stressed that the accord does not 
mean the party's withdrawal from the coalition that supported 
former opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich. 
Istomin expressed hope that the Grodno chapter of the opposition 
Belarusian Popular Front would also join the agreement.  However, 
UCP has drawn criticism from local Milinkevich supporters. 
 
¶4.  Liberal Democratic Party to Run Over 3,000 in Local Elections 
 
On July 20, Deputy Head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
Anatoly Khishchenko announced that LDP intends to put forward 3,234 
candidates for the municipal elections.  Knishchenko said that the 
party would select some candidates while others will get places on 
the ballot by collecting voters' signatures.  According to 
Khishchenko, LDP has already formed campaign teams across the 
country and LDP's local campaigns will run on the same platform and 
under the same slogan, "For Sovereign, Independent and Prosperous 
Belarus," as LDP's presidential campaign in March.  LDP is 
generally regarded as loyal to President Lukashenko.  LDP leader 
Sergey Gaidukevich came third in the March presidential election 
with 3.5 percent. 
 
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Civil Society 
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¶5.  Journalist Complains To Justice Ministry About Kozulin Trial 
Judge 
 
Belarusian journalist and human rights defender Valery Shchukin has 
filed a third complaint to the Justice Ministry about Aleksei 
Rybakov, the Moskovsky District Court judge who sentenced former 
opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr Kozulin to five and a 
half years of prison on July 13.  Shchukin claims that the judge 
vioated the law by clearing the courtroom before prononcing his 
verdict.  The judge ordered the courtrom empty after Kozulin 
called him a "hangman" an the politician's supporters started 
chanting "Feedom to Kozulin."  Reporters and diplomats also wre 
removed from the room, with only the prosecuto, Dr. Kozulin's 
chief lawyer and the court secreary staying to hear the verdict. 
According to Shhukin, Part 5 of the Criminal Code's Article 308allows a judge to remove only those who disturb pulic order. 
 
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International Relations 
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¶6.  Foreign Minister Martynov Visits Kyrgyzstan 
 
On July 17, Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov met with 
Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Alibek Dzhekshnkulov in Bishkek to discuss 
bilateral relations.  Martynov's visit was the first trip of a 
 
MINSK 00000763  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
Belarusian foreign minister to Kyrgyzstan.  The following day, 
Martynov held talks with President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Prime 
Minister Feliks Kulov on Tuesday.  President Bakiyev is scheduled 
to visit Belarus later this year. 
 
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Economy 
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¶7.  Protocol on Beltransgaz Appraisal Signed in Minsk 
 
On July 20, executives from Belarus' Beltransgaz gas transport 
company and Russia's Gazprom gas giant signed a protocol on 
cooperation in appraising of Beltransgaz's assets.  According to 
Belarusian Energy Ministry spokesman Andrey Zhukov, after 
Belarusian government formally approves the protocol, the Dutch 
bank ABN Amro will begin appraisal of Beltransgaz's assets.  Zhukov 
expected the appraisal to be complete within four to eight weeks. 
The agreement followed a meeting in Minsk that included ABN Amro 
experts, Beltransgaz Director General Dmitry Kazakov, and Belarus' 
Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko.  Earlier this month, 
Semashko announced that the Belarusian government would sell 
controlling shares to Gazprom by the end of the year if Gazprom 
honors its 2002 promise to sell Belarus gas at the same price 
charged to Russia's Smolensk province.  Earlier this year, Gazprom 
threatened to raise the gas price from USD 46.68 to USD 200 per 
tcm. 
 
¶8.  Government Reports Inflation at 3.1 Percent 
 
On July 18, the Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and Analysis 
reported an inflation rate of 3.1 percent in Belarus during the 
first six months of 2006.  Consumer prices rose by 0.2 percent in 
June.  The government forecasts an annual inflation rate of seven 
to nine percent by the end of the year.  Prices for foodstuffs 
increased three percent, and the price of non-food goods rose by 
1.5 percent.  Average consumer services fees rose by 4.9 percent, 
while fees for housing maintenance and healthcare services rising 
at the highest pace.  Industrial prices and freight transportation 
rates climbed 4.2 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, between 
January and July. 
 
¶9.  Fixed Capital Expenditures Reportedly Up to 37 Percent 
 
On July 18, the Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and Analysis 
reported that Belarus' fixed capital expenditures totaled USD 3.4 
billion in the first six months of 2006, which is 36.9 percent more 
than in the same period of the previous year.  According to the 
Ministry, 24.8 percent more was spent on construction and 
installation work, 56.8 percent more on purchases of tools, 
equipment, and vehicles, and 44.2 percent on production facilities 
than in January through June of 2005.  State enterprises spent USD 
1.8 billion in fixed capital expenditures in the first six months 
of 2006, 45 percent more than the same period of 2005. 
 
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Society 
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¶10.  Belarusian Bug Museum to Open in Grodno Region with UN Grant 
 
A museum of insects will open in Belarus this summer.  On display 
will be more than 1,000 insect specimens, including those of moths, 
dragonflies, mosquitoes, wasps, bumble bees and drones.  The 
insects were collected by a married couple who graduated from 
Belarusian State University with diplomas in biology.  The 
Mikanovichs purchased a house in a small village in the Grodno 
region to set up the museum and received USD 1,000 under the United 
Nations Development Program for landscaping the adjacent area.  The 
private museum will open to public view following the renovation of 
the house. 
 
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Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  The international coordinator for the independent media 
organization "Charter 97," Andre Sannikau, offered this observation 
regarding the continuation of Lukashenko's regime as an alternative 
to Belarus' union with Russia: 
 
"I don't consider Lukashenko able to ensure sovereignty.  And I 
don't want to choose between plague and cholera." 
 
KROL