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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 MINSK 000758 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: IISEPS Polling:  Lukashenko Still Enjoys Popular Support 
 
 
MINSK 00000758  001.2 OF 007 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY: On July 10, Director of the independent polling service 
IISEPS Oleg Manaev gave Ambassador the results of two opinion 
surveys conducted in June.  Lukashenko maintains a high support 
rating, with 55 percent of those polled claiming they would vote 
for Lukashenko again should elections be held tomorrow.  His 
closest competitor, opposition coalition candidate Aleksandr 
Milinkevich, comes in a distant second with only 13 percent.  The 
majority of respondents (70 percent) believe there should be a 
dialogue between the opposition and GOB, but 41 percent blame the 
opposition and West for the lack of dialogue and only 30 percent 
blame the authorities.  According to the surveys, 89 percent of 
those polled get their news from Belarusian TV and less than 5 
percent listen to foreign radio broadcasts from Poland and 
Lithuania.  Only 14 percent of respondents use the internet with 
much frequency, but of those who use do use the internet, the most 
popular online news sites include TUT.by, Radio Liberty, and other 
independent news sites.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. Manaev conducted two opinion surveys in June.  During the first 
survey (June I), carried out on June 2-12, 1509 people were 
interviewed.  The second survey (June II), was conducted on June 15- 
25 and included 1505 people.  Below are highlights of the polls. 
 
Support For Lukashenko Still High 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. According to IISEPS' June I polling, 21.4 percent of respondents 
consider Belarus a relatively democratic country, whereas 27.3 
percent consider it more of a dictatorship.  However, 64.6 percent 
of those polled view Lukashenko's third term as president 
legitimate and legal.  In fact, support for Lukashenko still runs 
much higher than for his nearest adversary, Milinkevich. 
 
Results of voting at the Presidential Election (%) according to 
IISEPS 2006 polling compared to the Central Election Committee's 
(CEC) official data: 
 
                CEC   Feb   March   April   June I   June II 
                ---   ---   -----   -----   ------   ------- 
 
Lukashenko     83.0  64.7   64.9     63.1    63.1      61.9 
Milinkevich     6.1  18.3   21.4     18.8    20.2      19.9 
Gaidukevich     3.5   5.0    2.2      5.2     4.4       3.3 
Kozulin         2.2   7.0    5.0      7.3     5.5       5.9 
Against all     5.2   5.0    6.4      5.5     6.8       9.0 
 
"If elections were held again tomorrow, who would you vote for?" 
 
Answer            June I   June II 
------            ------   ------- 
Lukashenko         54.7(%)  54.3 
Milinkevich        13.7     13.6 
Kozulin             2.8      3.7 
Gaidukevich         2.7      --- 
No answer          22.3      --- 
 
"Which of the below political figures more closely represents your 
ideal of a politician?" (June I) 
 
                   % 
                  ---- 
Lukashenko        41.4 
Putin             29.4 
Blair              5.1 
Bush               4.2 
Castro             3.2 
Nazarbaev          2.2 
Yushenko           2.0 
 
"In your opinion, has Lukashenko been successful at solving the 
following problems that the country faces?" (June I) 
 
                                              Yes      No 
                                              ----    ---- 
Maintaining stability in society              70.0(%) 24.8 
Raising the economy and welfare               55.6    36.1 
Protecting social justice                     42.5    45.5 
Battling corruption                           41.7    47.7 
Improving Belarus' international status       41.0    47.5 
Protecting democracy and political freedom    37.6    47.9 
Battling bureaucracy                          34.8    52.3 
 
"Are you satisfied with the way Lukashenko has ran the country in 
the last 12 years?" (June I) 
                              % 
                             ---- 
Completely satisfied         38.5 
Somewhat satisfied           29.8 
Somewhat not satisfied        9.1 
 
MINSK 00000758  002.2 OF 007 
 
 
Not at all satisfied         19.7 
 
"In your opinion, whose interests does Lukashenko serve?" (More 
than one answer) (June I) 
                                                      % 
                                                     ---- 
Pensioners                                           40.7 
Presidential hierarchy                               39.7 
Leaders of government businesses/collective farms    33.3 
People like yourself                                 23.9 
Youth                                                21.3 
 
"On a scale from one to ten, in your opinion, where is Belarus 
located?" ('1' representing complete democracy and '10' 
representing a true dictatorship)(June I) 
 
Scale      % 
-----     ---- 
1          5.3 
2          6.0 
3         10.1 
4          9.4 
5         14.3 
6         10.7 
7         11.7 
8         10.2 
9          7.3 
10         9.8 
 
¶4. Lukashenko also has the majority of Belarusians' trust, coming 
only in second to the Orthodox Church: 
 
"Do you trust the following government and public institutions?" 
(June I) 
 
                              Yes      No 
                              ----    ---- 
Orthodox Church               66.5(%) 22.4 
President                     60.8    30.6 
Government media              57.0    35.0 
Army                          51.2    36.0 
Government                    47.7    40.1 
Courts                        44.9    42.5 
KGB                           37.9    45.7 
Independent media             37.0    47.3 
Police                        38.4    50.2 
Local executive committees    36.7    50.5 
Local soviets                 36.5    50.3 
International organizations   30.8    49.3 
Protestant Church             16.6    58.4 
Opposition political parties  15.5    65.6 
 
---------------- 
Change Possible? 
---------------- 
 
¶5. The majority of respondents supports Lukashenko and is satisfied 
with his rule.  However, the majority of those polled admitted that 
citizens fear expressing their opinions in public and commented on 
the lack of dialogue between the opposition and GOB.  Also 
noteworthy is that 25 percent of respondents believe a change in 
leadership could occur only if initiated by the authorities and not 
as much by the people or the opposition. 
 
"What do you think about Belarusians' readiness to express their 
political opinions?" 
 
                    June I   June II 
                    ------   ------- 
No one afraid       18.6(%)   24.6 
Few people afraid   28.5      21.0 
Many people afraid  40.2      33.6 
All afraid           7.9      12.9 
 
"Should there be a dialogue between the opposition and government?" 
(June I) 
                   % 
                  ---- 
Yes               70.9 
No                17.3 
 
"Do you think a dialogue exists between the opposition and 
government?" (June I) 
 
No                66.2 
Yes               16.7 
 
"If you think a dialogue does not exist, then who is to blame (more 
than one answer)?" (June I) 
 
MINSK 00000758  003.2 OF 007 
 
 
 
Authorities       30.2 
Opposition        25.9 
The West          15.0 
Russia             1.9 
No answer         16.1 
 
"Would you like to see a change in leadership happen?" (June I) 
 
Yes               38.9 
No                29.4 
I don't care      16.6 
No answer         15.1 
 
"In your opinion, is it possible to have a complete internal and 
national leadership change in Belarus in the next five years?" 
(June I) 
 
Very possible     31.8 
Doubtful          43.9 
Not possible      14.6 
 
"If you believe that a change is possible, who would initiate the 
change?" (more than one answer)(June I) 
 
Authorities       25.6 
The people        19.2 
The West          13.9 
The opposition    11.4 
Russia            11.1 
 
"Do you think human rights are observed in Belarus?" 
 
Yes               24.9 
Yes, more or less 36.1 
No, more or less  20.0 
No                14.3 
 
----------- 
Information 
----------- 
 
¶6. Belarusian state media and Russian media dominate Belarusians' 
access to information.  Only a miniscule number listens to external 
radio broadcasts and few read online news sources. 
 
"What TV channels do you watch?" 
 
                                June I  June II 
                                ------  ------- 
Russian TV (ORT, NTV, etc.)      91.2(%) 83.6 
Belarusian TV (BT, STV, ONT)     89.6    89.2 
Local TV                         47.8    38.4 
Cable TV                         37.5    31.5 
Russian EuroNews                 18.2    12.7 
Satellite TV                     13.9    15.8 
Polish TV                         9.4    11.8 
Weekly RTVI                       7.8     6.3 
 
"Not long ago, radio stations in other countries began broadcasting 
programming (in Russian and Belarusian) to Belarus.  Do you listen 
to these broadcasts?" 
                                 June I      June II 
                                Yes    No    Yes   No 
                               ----   ----   ---  ---- 
Euroradio (Warsaw)              4.8(%)94.4   3.8  93.8 
Radia Ratsia (Belyastok)        4.4   94.8   2.5  95.3 
Poloniya  (Warsaw)              3.6   95.6   3.0  94.7 
German Wave (Bonn)              3.3   96.0   2.9  94.5 
Baltiskaya Khavalya (Vilnius)   2.0   96.8   1.7  95.8 
 
"Do you use the internet?" 
                                     June I   June II 
                                     ------   ------- 
Yes, daily                            5.1(%)    4.1 
Yes, several times per week           9.6       7.6 
Yes, several times per month          8.4       6.5 
Yes, several times per year           4.6       3.7 
No                                   67.8      73.7 
 
"If you do use the internet, what Belarusian information sites do 
you visit the most? (more than one answer)" 
 
TUT.BY                               16.7       6.7 
Independent media sites (i.e., BDG)   4.6       0.3 
Radio Liberty                         4.5       0.3 
Government media (i.e., Respublika)   3.2       0.3 
Interfax                              2.6       0.5 
Charter 97                            2.6       0.4 
 
MINSK 00000758  004.2 OF 007 
 
 
Belapan                               2.1       0.4 
Vyasna                                0.9       0.1 
 
"In the last year, have you--via media, leaflets, word of mouth-- 
seen or heard the results of independent polling surveys in 
Belarus?" 
              June I  June II 
              ------  ------- 
No             64.1(%) 72.2 
Yes            31.0    23.8 
 
"Have you ever received the publication 'Belaruski Vyestnik' with 
results from public opinion surveys conducted not long ago by 
independent sociologists?" 
                                         % 
                                        ---- 
Yes, I read the publication              9.6 
No, I never received this publication   88.5 
 
------------------------ 
Russia Preferred over EU 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. The majority of those polled prefer a union with Russia over 
closer integration with the EU, but the respondents revealed mixed 
feelings on Russia's interests in Belarus.  On the one hand, they 
seek a closer integration with Russia and prefer Lukashenko as 
President of the Union, but on the other hand 65 percent fear their 
eastern neighbor intends to deprive Belarus of its independence 
and, should this ever happen, would not want Lukashenko to rule 
over the newly created nation. 
 
"If a referendum were held now on Belarus' accession to the EU and 
you were able to vote 'for,' 'against,' or 'abstain,' how would you 
vote?" (June I) 
 
Answer               % 
------              ---- 
For                 49.2 
Against             31.5 
Abstain             18.5 
 
"If you were to chose between a union with Russia or entry into the 
EU, what would you chose?" 
 
                     June I   June II 
                    ------   ------- 
Union with Russia    56.5(%)  52.3 
EU accession         29.2     29.6 
 
"It is likely that soon Belarus and Russia will hold a referendum 
on the Constitutional Act, which would open the way for closer 
integration of both governments.  How would you vote?" 
 
                                          June I   June II 
                                          ------   ------- 
For the Act and closer integration        35.1(%)  34.7 
Against the Act and closer integration    15.2     17.7 
Will not participate                       9.5     11.3 
Depends on the circumstances              35.3     29.4 
No answer                                  4.9      6.9 
 
"If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on Belarus and Russia 
becoming one, how would you vote?" 
 
            June I  June II 
            ------  ------- 
For          44.9(%) 42.0 
Against      28.9    37.6 
 
"What is the best scenario mutual relationship for Belarus and 
Russia?" 
                                                  June I  June II 
                                                  ------  ------- 
Union of independent governments                   42.7(%) 45.1 
Neighborly relations of independent governments    36.5    30.9 
Formation of one government                        19.0    21.1 
 
"If there was to be a presidential position [of the Russia-Belarus 
Union], who would you vote for to fulfill the position?" 
 
                June I  June II 
                ------  ------- 
Lukashenko       39.3(%)  45.1 
Putin            24.2     24.7 
Milinkevich       2.2      1.9 
No answer        29.0     23.9 
 
"Some people in Belarus and in Russia believe it would be better 
 
MINSK 00000758  005.2 OF 007 
 
 
for both countries if they become one and the union's leader became 
Lukashenko.  How do you feel?" (June I) 
 
                                    % 
                                   ---- 
Would not want that to happen      38.4 
Would want that to happen          35.9 
I do not care                      17.0 
 
"In your opinion, if Belarus became part of Russia, would it have a 
positive or negative effect on the lives of Belarus' population?" 
(June II) 
               % 
              ---- 
Positive      32.4 
Negative      33.7 
No effect     19.5 
 
The Belarusian and Russian governments are holding negotiations on 
the introduction of the Russian ruble in Belarus.  In your opinion, 
should the Russian ruble be introduced in Belarus? (June II) 
 
No            58.1 
Yes           30.3 
 
----------------------- 
International Relations 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. The following results are likely a byproduct of the GOB's 
successful propaganda campaign against perceived enemies of 
Belarus.  Forty-five percent of June I respondents blame the EU and 
U.S. of violating international norms in internal and external 
politics, whereas only 13.2 percent blame Belarus.  Russia, of 
course, is Belarus' closest friend and continues to get high 
support ratings from respondents.  However, many respondents 
supported the EU [and U.S.] asset freezes of GOB officials: 
 
"Not long ago, the EU froze bank accounts in the EU belonging to 36 
high-ranking Belarusian officials in Lukashenko's administration. 
Some consider this move justified, others do not.  What do you 
think?" (June I) 
                 % 
                ---- 
Justified       42.2 
Not justified   34.5 
No answer       23.3 
 
"How do you rate the political attitude of neighboring countries 
towards Belarus?" (June I) 
 
                  Positive   Negative 
                  --------   -------- 
Russia              67.6(%)    14.4 
Ukraine             31.5       32.1 
Poland              23.1       38.6 
Lithuania           19.6       37.4 
Latvia              17.8       37.6 
 
"In your opinion, what type of world influence does Russia, the 
U.S., and Belarus have?" (June II) 
 
                  Belarus   Russia   U.S. 
                  -------   ------   ---- 
Positive           43.5(%)   68.3    26.1 
Negative           11.4       9.5    52.0 
Not significant    38.3      11.7     8.3 
 
"And what type of influence, in your opinion, does Russia and the 
U.S. exert on Belarus?" (June II) 
 
                  Russia     U.S. 
                  ------     ---- 
Positive           61.6      20.6 
Negative           18.2      49.8 
Not significant    10.7      18.4 
 
"In your opinion, has Russia, the U.S., and Belarus in the last few 
years considered the needs of its own citizens?" (June II) 
 
                  Belarus   Russia    U.S. 
                  -------   ------    ---- 
Yes                51.3      46.2     18.6 
No                 17.5      10.9     19.7 
No difference      23.4      24.5     26.7 
 
"What type of opinion do you have about Presidents Putin, Bush, and 
Lukashenko?" (June II) 
 
 
MINSK 00000758  006.2 OF 007 
 
 
                 Positive  Negative 
                 --------  -------- 
Bush               27.3      57.4 
Lukashenko         62.6      28.2 
Putin              74.1      13.6 
 
------ 
Energy 
------ 
 
¶9. Support for Russia turns sour, however, when respondents were 
asked about threats of Russian gas price increases. 
 
"The media often discusses that beginning in 2007, Belarus will 
have to pay world prices for Russian gas.  Do you believe this?" 
(June I) 
                   % 
                  ---- 
Yes               60.6 
No                28.0 
No answer         11.4 
 
"If you said yes, then in your opinion, why would this happen?" 
(more than one answer) (June I) 
                                                                % 
                                                               ---- 
GAZPROM is a commercial structure going bankrupt making an 
exception for Belarus                                          37.9 
Putin is using GAZPROM to pressure Lukashenko into Union 
integration                                                    30.2 
Putin is fulfilling the West's demands to remove Lukashenko 
from power                                                      8.6 
No answer                                                      15.7 
 
"The leadership of GAZPROM has announced several times that in 
2007, Belarus will pay European prices for gas, meaning five times 
more than it does today.  Which of the following conclusions do you 
agree with?" (June II) 
                                                            % 
                                                           ---- 
It will not affect Belarusian-Russian relations            22.7 
It will result in worsening relations                      42.0 
It means the end of the Union government                   16.4 
Belarus will be forced to reorient itself to the West       7.2 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
Standard of Living: Still Woes, But Belarus On Right Path 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶10. Despite Lukashenko's repeated statements that the GOB's 
priority is to increase the population's standard of living, it 
appears that many of these problems are not solved and top the 
respondents' list of concerns.  However, the majority continues to 
believe that Belarus is developing on the right path. 
 
"What are the most burning problems for the country and its 
citizens?" (more than one answer)(June II) 
 
Answer                                 % 
------                                ---- 
 
Price increases                       60.1 
Unemployment                          37.0 
Corruption, bribery                   27.6 
Chernobyl consequences                25.5 
Crime                                 23.2 
Human right violations                22.1 
Absence of order, laws                22.1 
Receding population                   21.9 
Impoverished population               19.5 
Production decrease                   18.7 
Threats from the West                 18.2 
Belarus' international isolation      14.4 
Decline of national culture           10.8 
Losing Belarus' independence           8.3 
Dissent in society                     7.3 
 
"What is the average salary (including wages, pensions, welfare, 
etc.) that a member of your family typically receives?" 
 
                        June I   June II 
                        ------   ------- 
Below USD 79             18.3(%)  15.9 
USD 79 - 116             42.1     42.0 
USD 116 - 232            32.0     33.7 
Greater than USD 232      7.0      7.7 
 
Average Salary          USD 92   USD 132 
 
 
MINSK 00000758  007.2 OF 007 
 
 
"What percent of your family's income is spent on food and housing 
services?" (June II) 
                         % 
                        ---- 
Less than 10%            2.7 
10-30%                  11.5 
30-50%                  37.6 
50-80%                  34.0 
Over 80%                 7.4 
 
"What items are you able to purchase? (more than one answer)(June 
II) 
                                                               % 
                                                              ---- 
Sometimes not enough money for simple food and cheap clothes  14.9 
Only necessary food and clothes                               55.1 
Quality and various food and good clothes                     25.6 
Any food and clothing, whatever I want                         5.0 
Basic household appliances (TV, refrigerator, etc.)           39.9 
Modern appliances and technology (DVD players, etc.)          11.0 
Newest high-end appliances and technology                      1.4 
Inexpensive used car                                          22.9 
New car                                                        1.2 
Cannot buy new apartment, although needed                     28.9 
Apartment, but using life savings or loan                      6.2 
Real-estate (for vacation, investment)                         0.8 
 
"In your opinion, is your country developing on the right or wrong 
course?" 
                  June I  June II 
                  ------  ------- 
Right course       61.4(%) 56.9 
Wrong course       26.4    31.0 
 
"How has your life and that of your family changed since 1994?" 
(June II) 
                              % 
                             ---- 
Changed for the better       51.2 
Did not change               27.1 
Got worse                    17.4 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. The respondents' positive assessment of Lukashenko, his 
economic "stability", and the negative opinions of the West are 
likely the result of the GOB's successful propaganda campaign and 
the general lack of access to (and perhaps lack of interest in) 
objective information.  Internet usage is increasing, but slowly, 
and foreign radio broadcasts have failed to reach the majority of 
Belarusians.  Nonetheless, some of the respondents' opinions 
indicate that they are aware of the shortfalls in their government 
and do not believe everything the state media reports.  Meanwhile, 
Belarusians' generally positive opinion of Russia could quickly 
change, as Belarusians are increasingly concerned about Russia's 
possible encroachment on Belarus' sovereignty and its willingness 
to use gas prices as a political lever. 
 
KROL