VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #1593/01 2022018
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 212018Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7037
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2026 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM NU
SUBJECT: OAS ELECTION MISSION CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH ON 
ELECTIONS, BEARISH ON POST-ELECTION GOVERNABILITY 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 1555 
 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 0565 
     ¶C. 2005 MANAGUA 2806 
 
Classified By: Charge d'affaires Peter M. Brennan. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador recently met with the OAS 
election mission to assess preparations for Nicaragua's 
November 5 elections.  OAS mission leader Gustavo Fernandez 
said that the OAS is engaging the Supreme Electoral 
Commission (CSE) on electoral regulations.  The OAS has 
recommended that party poll watchers be allowed to observe 
the national/voter ID (cedula) issuance process at all stages 
and to have access to vote computation centers on Election 
Day.  The OAS has succeeded with some of its objectives, 
missed the mark in others.  Although Fernandez believes that 
preparations for the elections are mostly on track, some 
crucial issues remain.  He is also concerned that Nicaragua 
will wake up to a political crisis on January 20 when 
constitutional changes further eroding presidential powers go 
into effect and recommends the OAS help facilitate parties to 
reach a governability accord before the election.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
ELECTION PREPARATIONS MOSTLY ON TRACK, BUT CONCERNS REMAIN 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) Ambassador and team met with the OAS election mission 
on March 9 to assess the status of preparations for 
Nicaragua's November 5 elections and discuss post-election 
governability concerns.  Although OAS election mission leader 
Gustavo Fernandez believed the election preparations are 
mostly on track, he shared remaining concerns: 
 
--Politicized CSE:  The control of the CSE by two political 
parties (FSLN and PLC) who advocate for their own partisan 
interests inhibits impartiality and independence at all 
stages of the electoral process and disadvantages the other 
parties.  However, any change in the current system will have 
to wait until the next government takes over. 
 
-- Cedula Access:  Ambassador expressed concerns that the 
CSE/departmental/municipal branches are biased in handling 
cedula applications, according priority to FSLN supporters, 
while stalling on applications of other Nicaraguans. 
Fernandez promised to track this issue. (Note: The OAS met on 
July 19 with Movimiento por Nicaragua (Ref. A.), which is on 
the forefront of this issue.) 
 
--Voter Roll (Padron) Verification: Fernandez remarked that 
the recent voter roll verification only partially scrubbed 
the padron and that it did not address the number of deceased 
on the list.  He suggested that in the future, all 
Nicaraguans who do not vote in two consecutive elections 
should be automatically removed from the padron. 
 
--Candidate Disqualifications (Inhibiciones): Fernandez noted 
that thus far no parties or candidates have been 
disqualified/disallowed participation for politically 
motivated reasons. 
 
--Preventing the "Raton Loco" ("Crazy Mouse"):  Fernandez is 
optimistic that voters will be able to vote at the JRV near 
their place of residence, even if they do not appear on the 
list for that site if their cedula demonstrates they reside 
in the area.  (Note: Political parties have used the "Raton 
Loco" to confuse, discourage, and block voters unaffiliated 
with their parties from voting to reduce the votes of 
competing parties.) 
 
--Impugning Voter Site Results: Fernandez remains concerned 
that the controlling parties in the CSE (FSLN and to a lesser 
degree PLC) will attempt to impugn the voting results at 
certain polling sites (JRVs) to stack the presidential and 
legislative elections in their favor and to the detriment of 
the other parties/candidates. 
 
ENSURING TRANSPARENCY AND EQUAL ACCESS FOR ALL PARTIES 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (C) Fernandez related that his mission is engaging the 
CSE on electoral regulations to be released around the end of 
July.  The OAS has recommended that party poll watchers of 
all political parties be allowed to observe the cedula 
issuance process at all stages and to have access to vote 
computation centers on Election Day. 
 
OAS INTERIM REPORT CARD 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C) In March, Fernandez delineated a number of priorities 
that the OAS and other partners should address and resolve by 
June (Ref. B).  The results are mixed: 
 
--Hold at least a month of voter registry (padron) 
verification to scrub it of deceased members, and other 
anomalies.  Status: The CSE arranged only two consecutive 
weekends for verification. 
 
--Ensure all eligible Nicaraguans have national IDs (cedulas) 
so they can vote.  Status: Many Nicaraguans, especially 
youth, do not have cedulas and have not even applied for 
them.  According to an MpN study, less than 20% of voting age 
students in 165 secondary schools have cedulas.  August 6 is 
the deadline for cedula application. 
 
--Make sure observers will have complete access to the 
process.  Status:  The OAS is pressing for this. 
 
--Ensure there are no disqualifications (inhibiciones) of 
candidates.  Status:  Thus far there have been no 
disqualifications. 
 
--Make sure there will be adequate training of electoral 
officials, party monitors (fiscales), and international and 
domestic observers.  Status:  Training is being provided. 
 
--Keep the OAS foot in the CSE's door to monitor and provide 
technical assistance to the electoral body.  Status: The OAS 
believes its access is adequate. 
 
POST-ELECTION GOVERNABILITY A REAL CONCERN 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) After discussing the status of election preparations, 
Fernandez touched on his post-election concerns, warning that 
Nicaraguans could wake up to a political crisis on January 20 
when constitutional changes further eroding presidential 
powers go into effect.  He enumerated three possible 
solutions to stem this crisis.  First, hold on November 5 (as 
the GON and PLC candidate Jose Rizo suggest) a referendum on 
the constitutional changes.  Second, postpone the 
implementation of the constitutional changes (as ALN 
candidate Eduardo Montealegre suggests).  Third, arrange for 
OAS and others to facilitate Nicaraguan parties to reach a 
governability accord before the election.  Of these options, 
Fernandez favored the third because there is neither the will 
nor wherewithal to arrange a referendum at this late date. 
Further, the party that is the runner up in the November 
election will want to maintain as much control as possible 
over the executive through the National Assembly. 
 
¶6.  (C) OAS election mission political adviser Raul Alconada 
endorsed postponing the implementation of the constitutional 
changes until 2013, as ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre has 
recommended.  Along the lines of his and Dante Caputo's 
efforts last year (Ref. C), the OAS would help broker a new 
agreement among the political parties and GON, who then would 
convince the National Assembly to amend the Framework Law 
(Ley Marco) it passed last fall. 
 
¶7.  (C) Fernandez reiterated his view that neither the FSLN 
nor the PLC would sign on to such an accord before the 
November election because the second-place party will want to 
use the Assembly to maintain as much control as possible over 
the executive.  He suggested that the governability accord 
could include committing all parties to respect the 
separation of powers, requiring a 2/3 legislative majority to 
appoint Supreme Court and CSE magistrates, and raising the 
minimum percentage threshold to win the presidential 
election. (Note: According to the current electoral law, a 
presidential candidate wins the election with 35 percent of 
the vote if he/she leads by at least 5 percent.) 
 
¶8.  (C) Alconada suggested that former Chilean President 
Lagos would be a more appropriate broker of an eventual 
governability accord, noting that the OAS role in ensuring a 
clean electoral process could be muddied if it engages in the 
post-election governability issue.  Lagos and other former 
presidents of the region, who will present a workshop in 
Managua in late September, could help with the governability 
accord.  Fernandez replied that he will leave it to SecGen 
Insulza to determine who should be involved. 
 
OAS PRESENCE ON THE GROUND 
- - - - - - - - - -  - - - 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Fernandez shared that three additional OAS experts 
will be in Managua, and he will return on August 21 to remain 
here.  The OAS election mission's press coordinator, Juan 
Cristobal Soruco, who was present at the meeting, will also 
remain in country. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶10.  (C) Tensions between Fernandez and Alconada were 
palpable.  Alconada recently started working as Dante 
Caputo's deputy in Washington.  Thus, he will not be as much 
engaged with the OAS election mission as previously arranged, 
and much of the political aspects of the mission will fall on 
Fernandez's shoulders.  Fernandez is probably right that 
neither the PLC nor the FSLN would support a postponement of 
the implementation of the constitutional changes.  However, 
reaching a governability accord may also prove to be 
unrealistic, and if achieved, it would carry no legal weight. 
 Post will examine the objectives presented by the MpN, the 
Bolanos government, the OAS Democratic Charter, and other 
sources to compile essential points for a notional 
governability accord. 
BRENNAN