VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #1482/01 1872222
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 062222Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6885
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0726
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001482 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2026 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: HERTY,S PASSING: WILL MORE UNDECIDED VOTES PASS TO 
MONTEALEGRE, OR WILL ORTEGA GAIN GROUND? 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 1220 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 1210 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) 
presidential candidate Herty Lewites, who often asserted to 
us that he stands between Daniel Ortega and the presidency, 
died suddenly of apparent natural causes on July 2 and was 
buried before thousands of mourners on July 5.  The MRS 
selected Lewites' running mate Edmundo Jarquin to succeed him 
and singer/composer Carlos Mejia Godoy to run as Jarquin's 
VP.  We expect that Daniel Ortega believes his chances of 
winning the election have significantly improved, but the new 
MRS ticket could give Ortega a run for the money.  Lewite's 
passing also opens a new opportunity for Montealegre to 
attract more of Nicaragua's undecided/unaffiliated voters. 
These are additional votes he could win -- or lose.  If 
Montealegre reaches out to the poor, women, and youth, he may 
attract some of Lewites' followers.  However, with PLC 
candidate Jose Rizo's numbers rising significantly in the 
latest Borge poll (septel) and Montealegre's slipping, only 
if Montealegre recoups ground 
and resonates in rural areas will he clearly be the candidate 
best positioned to beat Ortega.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Herty Lewites, a Sandinista-dissident/presidential 
candidate for the MRS -- who often asserted to us that he 
stands between Daniel Ortega and the presidency -- died 
suddenly of a heart attack on July 2 and was buried on July 5 
in his hometown Jinotepe.  He was born December 24, 1939 and 
leaves behind wife Carmen "Carmencita" Garcia de Lewites and 
two children, Herty and Sol.  Born of a Jewish immigrant 
father and a Nicaraguan mother and raised a Catholic, Lewites 
was also proud of his Jewish roots, nicknaming himself the 
"Jewish Tiger."  President Bolanos, who attended the funeral 
services, called for a three-day national mourning period in 
honor of Lewites. 
 
¶3.  (C) Conspiracy theories speculating that Lewites may have 
fallen victim to foul play by his FSLN competitors have 
already started to surface.  However, at his widow's request, 
no autopsy was performed.  Herty suffered from serious heart 
trouble, and although internal bleeding from minor surgery 
may have trigged his heart attack, we have no information 
that suggests his death was from unnatural causes.  Indeed, 
according to attending physicians he had been warned not to 
campaign. 
 
MUNDO JARQUIN ASSUMES HELM, CHOOSES POPULAR RUNNING MATE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C) The MRS selected Lewites' running mate Edmundo 
"Mundo" Jarquin to succeed Lewites on July 4 and invited 
popular revolutionary singer/composer Carlos Mejia Godoy to 
run as the vice presidential candidate.  Mejia Godoy accepted 
the offer on July 5, expressing his commitment to helping 
carry on Herty's legacy.  Jarquin explained to polcouns at 
the July 4 reception that Mejia enjoys the local name 
recognition and popular support that will complement 
Jarquin's technical expertise and international connections. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Contacts, both MRS officials and others, have 
privately criticized Jarquin as having lived for too long 
outside of Nicaragua and not having the charisma that enabled 
Lewites to draw support from all sectors of society.  Some 
believe that Mejia Godoy should be the presidential 
candidate, with Jarquin remaining in the VP position.  Mejia 
Godoy, who had long been affiliated with the Sandinista 
party, wrote the current Sandinista anthem, which includes 
anti-U.S. lyrics.  In an interview on July 6, Mejia Godoy 
showed no remorse for the anti-Yankee lines, commenting that 
"the U.S. deserves them."  Mejia Godoy is enormously popular, 
even among many non-Sandinistas for his nationalistic music 
that captures the idiosyncrasies of the Nicaraguan people. 
 
 
BIO: EDMUNDO JARQUIN 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (U) Born in Nueva Segovia, Nicaragua in September, 1946, 
Dr. Edmundo Jarquin Calderon is a lawyer, economist, and 
former university professor.  A firm opponent of Somoza at an 
early age, he served as Ambassador to Spain and Mexico during 
the Sandinista regime, and a National Assembly Deputy in the 
early 1990s.  An Enrique Iglesias protege, Jarquin worked for 
 
the IDB in Spain before accepting Lewites' offer to run on 
his ticket.  He is married to Claudia Chamorro, Violeta 
Chamorro's daughter. 
 
HERTY'S FUNERAL REFLECTS HOPE AND SORROW 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) Ambassador and polcouns attended Lewites' funeral, a 
spontaneous outpouring of popular affection and support for a 
man, who for many, symbolized their hopes for a more just and 
prosperous Nicaragua.  The thousands of mourners reflected 
the groups most drawn to Herty: youth, women, the poor, 
artists, and intellectuals -- vital segments of Nicaragua's 
voter population.  Common-folk and MRS leaders, including 
Jarquin, approached the Ambassador to express appreciation 
for his presence.  While ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre, 
his vice presidential candidate Fabricio Cajina and a number 
of other Montealegre supporters attended, neither Rizo nor 
Ortega were present, although the FSLN announced it had 
suspended a number of activities out of respect for Lewites. 
At the close of the funeral, Jarquin assured mourners that, 
like Herty, he does not seek power.  Rather, he will break 
the nefarious Ortega-Aleman pact and implement Herty's social 
project, an effort that puts first and foremost the welfare 
and happiness of all Nicaraguans, regardless of political 
affiliation. 
 
COMMENT -- WHAT NEXT? 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8.  (C) Whether Jarquin, Martinez Cuenca, Ramirez, or any 
other candidate can fill Herty's shoes is questionable, as 
his charisma was the drawing card of the MRS coalition. It is 
also unclear whether Jarquin will be able to attract 
financial backing.  Lewites drew heavily on support from the 
Jewish financiers, an advantage Jarquin does not enjoy. 
Without the coattails of Herty's charisma, the chances of the 
MRS capturing a significant number of legislative seats may 
also diminish, making it more difficult to break the 
Ortega-Aleman "Pacto" alliance in the National Assembly. 
While Mejia's addition to the MRS ticket may draw more votes 
from Ortega, his apparent anti-U.S. stance could complicate 
relations with the USG and scare away non-Sandinista voters, 
who may decide that Montealegre is a safer bet. 
 
¶9.  (C) We expect that Daniel Ortega and his supporters are 
relieved that Herty is no longer part of the political 
competition and that they believe Ortega's chances of winning 
the election have significantly improved.  Indeed, a bump in 
the polls in favor of Ortega has occurred and Ortega's 
numbers appear to have crossed the 30% threshold.  Although 
we are likely to see Ortega attempt rapprochement with his 
"Sandinista comrades" in the MRS, the lack of FSLN presence 
at the funeral does not bode well for reconciliation between 
the FSLN and MRS.  Further, the new MRS ticket could give 
Ortega a run for the money, as the Jarquin-Godoy combination 
may attract more, not fewer, Sandinista voters.  Moreover, 
Ortega's rise in the polls could prompt the unintentional 
consequence of scaring more undecided/unaffiliated voters, 
who are largely anti-Ortega, to back the candidate best 
poised to beat him.  Clearly, a high abstention rate would 
favor Ortega, while higher voter turnout would work against 
him. 
 
¶10.  (C) Lewites' passing also opens a new opportunity for 
Montealegre to attract more of Nicaragua's undecided or 
unaffiliated voters.  These are additional votes he could win 
-- or lose.  Jarquin will not be an easy competitor, as he 
appears more habile than Montealegre with the media, and, 
like Montealegre, is versant in economic matters.  If 
Montealegre improves his outreach to, and resonance among, 
the poor, women, and youth, he may attract some of Lewites' 
followers, although many are certain to remain loyal to 
Lewite's successor. 
 
¶11.  (C) Montealegre faces an additional challenge.  While he 
was grappling with his alliance's interpersonal and partisan 
conflicts over the past two months, Rizo was actively 
campaigning, especially in the PLC's stronghold - Nicaragua's 
rural areas.  Rizo's efforts seem to have paid off: his 
numbers rose significantly in the latest Borge poll (septel). 
 Only if Montealegre recoups ground and starts to resonate in 
rural areas will he clearly be the best candidate to beat 
Ortega.  And only then will Rizo be pressed to withdraw from 
the race and support Montealegre.  Montealegre's rural 
running mate may be the key to attracting the rural vote, but 
 
he must move soon to make a dent into the PLC vote there. 
 
¶12.  (C) Ambassador will meet on July 7 with Montealegre and 
IRI'S Gilberto Valdez to drive home the need for Montealegre 
to act now and to discuss how to unify his disparate, 
unfocused alliance.  Ambassador will also meet with MRS 
candidate Jarquin.  END COMMENT 
TRIVELLI