VZCZCXYZ0023
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1617/01 2021247
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 211247Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5306
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST; FIDEL CASTRO; MERCOSUR AND VENEZUELA; 
07/20/06 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's most important international stories include the war in the 
Middle East; Fidel Castro's probable visit to Argentina and the 
Cuban political transition; and Venezuela's incorporation into 
Mercosur. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "The US agrees with Israel that the offensive should continue one 
more week" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (07/20) "According to government 
officials from the US, Israel and the EU, despite the increasing 
international pressure for a ceasefire, the US and Israel have 
agreed that the military offensive against Hezbollah could extend 
one more week before starting negotiations that could lead to a 
truce. 
 
"The UN and the EU are pressuring for a ceasefire in Lebanon as soon 
as possible. However, US President Bush supports the Israeli 
government's decision to weaken Hezbollah as much as possible as a 
prior step to diplomatic talks. 
 
"The Republican administration suggested that only after the 
military objective is reached would Condoleezza Rice travel to the 
region, which is seen by her European counterparts as a highly risky 
bet of unpredictable consequences." 
 
- "The US is reported to let Israel continue attacking for at least 
one more week" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (07/20) "The US has granted Israel at least one week to 
finish destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon. US Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice will not travel to the region unless the work has 
been done. Is this the best way to defend US interests in the Middle 
East? 
 
"All official analysts agree that destroying Hezbollah is necessary. 
The White House's spokesperson, Tony Snow, said that the Bush 
administration does not want to return to the point when violence 
broke out. Snow said, 'A ceasefire would leave the terrorist 
infrastructure intact, and this is unacceptable.' Bush himself said 
that Hezbollah, the root of the problem, should be destroyed. 
 
"Nevertheless, independent analysts believe that, in the long run, 
this strategy will severely damage US interests. 
 
"... Israel's attack against Lebanon represents the end of Bush's 
policy of democratization of the Middle East... 
 
"According to analysts, the US will even lose the confidence of 
moderate Arabs for having abandoned the Lebanon government to its 
luck." 
 
- "Taking on the holy warrior" 
 
James Neilson, contributor to liberal, English-language "Buenos 
Aires Herald," writes (07/20) "... The warriors of Hezbollah and 
Hamas think time is on their side. They already have the ability to 
hit Haifa and perhaps Tel Aviv and Jerusalem with missiles capable 
of causing a great deal of damage. 
 
"Thanks to their backers in Iran and Syria, unless they are 
eliminated, they could soon dispose of much nastier weapons. Can 
Israel negotiate with them with the aim of assuaging their 
grievances? As they are against negotiations with the 'Zionist 
entity' on principle, such talks as do take place serve merely to 
strengthen them. 
 
"And meanwhile, the Iranians, whose contempt for the West seems 
boundless, are busily working on their nuclear arsenal. 
 
"Aware of this, some think that the ayatollahs got their proxies in 
Lebanon and Gaza to goad Israel into action in order to distract the 
attention of the rest of the world, especially the US, thus allowing 
them to edge nearer towards their goal. 
 
"If that indeed is their game, they may have miscalculated. People 
in high places are coming to the conclusion that what we are seeing 
is the start of a jihadist offensive, so the long awaited showdown 
between the US and Iran could take place at any moment." 
 
- "Victims and murderers, equally punished" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed page by Silvia Bleichmar, a 
psychoanalyst, who writes (07/209 "... Paradoxically enough, Israel, 
as well as Zidane in the World Football Cup, has lost focus of what 
it represents for the world. And it performs actions that merge us 
in a lack of hope... 
 
"The Palestinian people are not an invention of the postwar. Even 
when their foundation was defined by exclusion, once foundation took 
place, their existence is not subject to debate. Once founded, the 
State of Israel also has the right to settle down on the lands it 
inherited. 
 
"Every terrorist action, whether performed by Hamas or the State of 
Israel, raises an ungrounded conflict without political or historic 
rationality." 
 
- "Fidel, Chavez and a close transition" 
 
Business-financial "El Cronista" carries an opinion piece by 
political analyst Jorge Castro, who writes (07/20) "Commander Fidel 
Castro will turn 80 in August. His political figure summarizes the 
entire current Cuban system of power. There is no political 
institution on the island opposing his will. All of them are 
instruments of his extraordinary power... 
 
"His possible visit (to Argentina) coincides with a turning point in 
South America's political life. The US has withdrawn from the region 
and is focusing all its efforts on the struggle against 
transnational terrorism, particularly in the Middle East (Iraq). 
 
"To the US withdrawal, the Brazilian paralysis adds itself - Brazil 
tried to replace the US hegemony in the region. The outcome of all 
this is a lack of leadership and a vacuum of power in the region, 
which favors Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez's expansionist 
strategist - Chavez is Fidel's best disciple for the last 30 years. 
 
"... Fidel Castro's sense of reality has made him leave behind his 
'Marxist-Leninist' ideology. He only maintains his deep anti-US 
feeling, which is expressed today in a nationalistic and 
anti-globalization conviction. His death will mean the beginning of 
transition." 
 
- "The debate of Mercosur" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed page by contributor 
Natalio R. Botana, who writes (07/20) "There is a debate in 
Mercosur... One of the problems is related to the uncertainty 
unleashed by Venezuela's incorporation into Mercosur... 
 
"Venezuela's incorporation has changed the focus of the discussion 
for two main reasons. First and foremost, Venezuela is an 
increasingly important oil power. While the war in the Middle East 
continues, the power of South American oil and gas will continue 
growing. 
 
"... The history of integration among democratic countries reveals 
that success is achieved when integration is a project shared by 
governments and opposition sectors. The 'Bolivarian republic' of 
Venezuela is a clear demonstration that the opposition has very 
little to do there - it does not participate in elections..." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Humanitarian catastrophe" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" editorializes (07/20) "The battle unleashed 
by Israel in Lebanon after Hezbollah's new offensive has become a 
serious humanitarian catastrophe rather than another confrontation 
on an unstable border. This humanitarian catastrophe could worsen as 
the escalation of violence deepens. 
 
"When Hezbollah crossed all political limits by expanding its 
military operations outside of the Chebbaa area and killing and 
kidnapping the Israeli soldiers, it was intolerable for the Israeli 
government, which had a parallel offensive from Hamas, and there was 
obviously coordination between the two sectors..." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website 
at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
LLORENS