VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1584/01 1982036
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 172036Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5246
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST; THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL SANCTIONS ON NORTH 
KOREA; STATUS OF AMBASSADOR WAYNE'S NOMINATION AS US AMBASSADOR TO 
ARGENTINA CUBAN SUCCESSION ENERGY ISSUES; 07/17/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Local papers lead with the escalation of the Middle East violence; 
disagreement at the UN Security Council regarding a call for 
ceasefire; UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea; the 
status of Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne's confirmation as US 
Ambassador to Argentina; and the succession of power in Cuba. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Escalation" 
 
Paula Lugones, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(07/17) "The war in the Middle East is dramatically escalating. 
Hezbollah showed that it can target key Israeli points and kill 
people at will. 
 
"The Israeli response was of unthinkable proportions... and did not 
make any distinction between Hezbollah and civilians... 
 
"Of course, Israel has the right to recover its captured soldiers. 
However, as in the Gaza Strip, it punished an entire population in 
its attempt to release them. Israel is seeking to execute an 
'exemplary punishment' and wants to annihilate Hezbollah, but its 
devastating offensive will fuel more hatred in the Arab world. 
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is smiling." 
 
- "Disagreement at the UN on ceasefire" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (07/15) "Yesterday, Lebanese Ambassador to the UN Nouhad 
Mahmoud accused Israel of violating all international law 
conventions by launching a 'brutal attack' against his country. 
 
"During a UN Security Council meeting, Mahmoud urged its members to 
establish a ceasefire and put an end to the air and maritime 
blockade imposed by Israel on Lebanon... 
 
"While  it is rare that the UN Security Council emergency meetings 
serve to find a solution to the conflicts all over the world..., at 
least they always reveal the political positions of each of its 
members. Yesterday's meeting was not an exception. A large majority 
condemned the Israeli attacks against Hamas militants in Gaza and 
against Lebanese targets. While others are sympathetic to Israel, 
such as the US, explained that those attacks were launched in its 
own defense. 
 
"US Ambassador John Bolton reiterated that every country has the 
right to its own defense. However, he expressed his concern over the 
fragile Lebanese democracy and reiterated his call for the Lebanese 
government to disarm Hezbollah. This is a contradiction in itself, 
because  no weak government would be able to dissolve Hezbollah. 
 
"Most attendees termed Israel's attacks as 'excessive' and 
'disproportionate.' In this regard, disagreement was so profound 
that the Council did not adopt any resolution to prevent the 
conflict from becoming a regional war." 
 
- "The 'little war' of economic chaos" 
 
Gustavo Sierra, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(07/16) "The Israeli attack on Lebanon and Gaza is just the surface 
of the conflict. The deeper issue is the struggle for power in the 
Middle East between the US and Iran. And everything associated with 
this,  is chaos  and heading for world economic disorder. 
 
"... In this framework, with Iraq imbalanced for three years now and 
without any prospect of normalization, the region that Bush viewed 
as a jungle of democracies after the Saddam's downfall is more 
unstable today than it has ever been in last 20 years. 
 
"The key to putting a brake on Israel's counter-offensive and 
supporting the moderate governments of Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon 
itself is in the hands of US President George W. Bush. But, once 
again, his short and retrograde view only made him say that 'Israel 
has the right to defend itself.' He is not aware of the fact that 
this 'little war' is perfect for Iran to win time and continue with 
its nuclear program." 
 
- "Fueling future bursts of hatred" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an opinion by international analyst Oscar 
Raul Cardoso, who writes (07/16) "... If  anything is clear, it is 
that there is no possible legal justification in international law 
for Israel to have started what it did in Lebanon - it started a 
non-declared war against a sovereign country which did not pose any 
 
 
danger to it, based on the attacks of Hezbollah. Regarding ethics, 
it is clear that the death of civilians and the destruction of 
non-war infrastructure are against the Judeo-Christian tradition. 
 
"... Israel needs is to stop in order to prevent further future 
damage against its own security. 
 
"It is fueling future 'retro-explosions' of hatred and resentment, 
just like the US-UK coalition in Iraq..." 
 
- "Big disagreement between Bush and Putin  over the crisis in the 
Middle East" 
 
Leading "Clarin" reports (07/16) "The war in the Middle East is part 
of the G8 agenda in San Petersburg, the first G8 summit ever held in 
Russia. The beginning of the encounter was cold and there were some 
points of disagreement - US President George W. Bush blamed 
Hezbollah for violence while Putin shifted the blame to Israel. 
 
"The two countries' leaders also disagreed on issues like trade, 
democracy and geopolitics... 
 
"Bush believes it is clear that Hezbollah is responsible for 
capturing soldiers and launching missiles into Israel, and he will 
ask to include a statement regarding this in the declaration... Bush 
also criticized the Palestinians and Syrians. Meanwhile, Putin also 
criticized Israel for having bombed its Northern neighbor, and urged 
to make 'maximum efforts' in order to achieve peace. 
 
"The two leaders made mutual praising statements. However, witnesses 
of the private encounters pointed out that there were many frictions 
between the two delegations." 
 
- "The UN Security Council sanctions Northern Korea" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (07/16) "After eleven days of 
negotiations that ended up in intensifying China and Russia's 
resistance, the UN Security Council adopted yesterday a resolution 
that imposed sanctions on Northern Korea for its missile tests. 
 
"The resolution was adopted unanimously and bans every 
country-member from trading with Northern Korea any material that 
could be used for its nuclear and missile program, as well as the 
transfer of funds for the same purposes. It also 'condemned Northern 
Korea's multiple launchings of ballistic missiles on July 5, 2006' 
and asked Pyongyang to 'suspend any activity related to its 
ballistic missile program.' The resolution also urged Northern Korea 
to resume multilateral negotiations on its nuclear and missile 
program. 
 
"After this decision, US Ambassador John Bolton said that the world 
should be ready for Pyongyang's eventual decision to dishonor the 
resolution." 
 
- "Disagreement hinders the UN Security Council" 
 
Alberto Armendariz, on special assignment in New York for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (07/15) "Hindered by 
disagreement among its members, the UN Security Council did not 
reach a deal  over a call for ceasefire, which was asked by Lebanon 
to put a brake in Israel's military incursions in its territory. 
 
"... Israel's position was fully supported by the US, which on the 
previous day vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling Israel 
to put an end to the occupation of the Gaza Strip. 
 
"... However, the ambassadors of the 15 countries making up the UN 
Security Council criticized Israel's 'exaggerated' reaction to use 
'excessive military force' in  damaging infrastructure, which ended 
up killing and injuring civilians." 
 
- "When hawks rule in the Middle East" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
writes (07/15) "... Today's reality in the region is an ascending 
spiral of chaos. The 'hawks' of all aspects of the 
Arab-Palestinian-Israeli conflict have taken hold of the day. 
 
"Hezbollah is profiting from chaos... Iran is taking advantage of it 
too. The current situation is allowing for  a delay the West's 
political offensive against its nuclear program... 
 
"What about Israel? It is advisable to ask about the non-visible 
agenda of its escalation. French President Jacques Chirac asked 
whether (Israel had) the intention 'to destroy Lebanon' behind 
formal reasons. 
 
 
 
"In spite of its complex nature, the problem may be reduced to some 
basic features. The US's stubbornness to privilege Israel at any 
price is the root of the 'intangible' nature of the Middle East 
peace. 
 
"John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, from the Universities of 
Chicago and Harvard, sustained... that 'Israel is no longer a US 
strategic partner as it was during the Cold War but a 'strategic 
burden,' and, nevertheless, it manages to  hold captive Washington's 
policy in the region." 
 
- "A tough internal dispute stalls confirmation of the US 
Ambassador" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (07/16) "The position of US 
Ambassador to Argentina could be vacant until next September or 
October due to a dispute between the US Department of State and the 
US Cuban lobby. Meanwhile, the Republican administration is 
preparing to change three of the main U.S. spokespersons for Latin 
America. 
 
"The Cuba lobby is also attempting to wield influence on two other 
positions seen as 'strategic', that of (US) Ambassador to the OAS... 
and (US) Assistant Secretary for Latin America at the US Pentagon... 
 
 
"Earl Anthony Wayne's nomination for US Ambassador to Argentina 
suffered a second setback at the UN Senate Foreign Relations 
Committee last June 29 when his was the only nomination not 
approved. 
 
"Republican Senator for Nevada, John Ensign, blocked his nomination 
due to the pressure of Cuban exiles... 
 
"... The offensive against Wayne is based on a dispute in which he 
acted as Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs, and 
he objected to a budgetary assignment for TV Marti... 
 
"Wayne expressed doubts about the need for the transmission... 
According to a source, this unleashed a confrontation with the lobby 
of Cuban exiles', which responded with a 'demonstration of power.' 
 
"Now, the US Department of State is negotiating with Senator Ensign 
to unblock Wayne's nomination, which for those who are most 
optimistic could happen by the end of this month." 
 
- "An escalation that threatens to expand in the region" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," writes 
(07/15) "There are two elements that are beginning to be seen 
clearly. This war scenario in the Middle East can be more 
catastrophic than it currently is. And secondly, the crisis already 
has created a gravestone for Israel's unilateral plan of withdrawal 
from Gaza and the West Bank... 
 
"... Ehud Barak has just sustained that war could expand to 
Syria... 
 
"Behind Syria, but particularly behind Hezbollah, Iran's challenging 
power is standing. The more war expands, the bigger the chaos. Iraq 
is an example of this, where today the US is looking for a way out, 
is an antecedent of only betting on a military solution as a means 
to solve a conflict that calls for another  type of solution." 
 
- "At 80, Fidel continues being a legend" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" (07/15) front-pages an opinion piece by 
writer Tomas Eloy Martinez, who writes "Most iron-handed leaders 
have a superstitious view of their own death. They do not tolerate 
men they subdued to imagine a future in which they will no longer be 
present. Speculating about their eventual successors often cost them 
a fast fall in disgrace. Fidel Castro is an exception to this crazy 
rule. 
 
"A long time ago, he appointed his brother Raul as his successor and 
last June Raul himself spoke about what may occur in Cuba after 
Fidel's death, with the harshness that inevitable realities 
deserve. 
 
"... Against some analysts' assumptions, neither Raul will preside 
over a more flexible and open government than that of his brother, 
nor will the US show a better disposition to hold talks with him. 
Everything leads to the assumption that the blockade (one of the 
major and stubborn mistakes of the US policy) will be maintained, 
 
 
and just a few things will change." 
 
- "Energy kills ideology" 
 
Santiago O'Donnell, columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," writes 
(07/16) "Hugo Chavez and Alvaro Uribe have little in common. One is 
Bush's 'ghost' and the other is his best ally... However, the other 
day they were together when they announced the construction of a gas 
pipeline that will unite the Colombian coast on the Pacific Ocean 
with the main Venezuelan oil refinery. 
 
"... The idea is to use the gas pipeline to sell cheap oil to the 
impoverished Central American countries. 
 
"... Meanwhile, the 'cop' is sleeping. Adam Isaacson, head of 
programs at the Center for International Politics in Washington, 
explained... 'The USG is not concerned about the construction of a 
new gas pipeline between Venezuela and Colombia... Simply because - 
the US does not live on gas imports. It only imports 15 per cent of 
the gas it uses...' 
 
"The situation would be very different if instead of a gas pipeline, 
Uribe and Chavez decided to build an oil pipeline in the same 
location... Isaacson explained 'If the plans to build an oil 
pipeline progress, we can expect strong pressures from Washington to 
put an end to the project.' In other words, do not bother with 
oil." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "International conflicts and possible impact on the country" 
 
An editorial in business-financial "El Cronista" (07/17) reads 
"There has been an escalation of violence in some potentially 
dangerous points of conflict, which were recently 'dormant'... 
 
"In the specific case of the confrontation between Israel and the 
Palestinians and between Israel and the Lebanese extremist 
forces..., the plan is to speed up actions in order to convince that 
in the loss-loss game, the other side will have the largest damage 
during the process. 
 
"... The significant implied danger is that domestic or foreign 
political circumstances limit the maneuvering room of leaders to put 
an end to the escalation of violence. 
 
"... Argentina's ability  to face relatively short confrontations is 
relatively good. There are no signs that the country can enter 
long-scale confrontations... Therefore, the best that local 
political leaders can do is making progress on pending issues, so to 
prevent current circumstances from becoming veils for disregarding 
our commitments." 
 
- "International shock" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" carries an editorial (07/17) "Once again, 
the Middle East is on the verge of an open war between sovereign 
countries. With oil barrel at an unprecedented value and the US (the 
only superpower capable to put the planet in order) trapped in Iraq, 
prospects are gloomy... 
 
"... According to an expert, 'Iran and Syria believe that by 
intensifying violence, they will strengthen their position in their 
conflicts with the US and Europe and will demonstrate that they are 
the ones who have the key to a solution of the confrontation between 
Israel and the Arabs.' If this is the plan of the Syrian-Iranian 
axis, it runs the risk of suffering a blunt defeat... 
 
"No one wants to return to the nightmare of civil war, but the truth 
is that today Hezbollah is operating with an intolerable impunity... 
Within this framework, Israel has seemingly decided to put an end to 
the problem of instability on its Northern border. However, two 
regional powers that are hostile to the West and promoters of 
Islamic extremism are on its way, and they could openly join the 
battlefield. A big-scale war is on the horizon." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website 
at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
GUTIERREZ