VZCZCXRO8308
OO RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #1207 2121215
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 311215Z JUL 06 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9079
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1170
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RXFEAA/HQ AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS BELGRADE 001207 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D COPY --- ADDED PARA MARKINGS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SR MW YI
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN SERBIA: QUIET ON THE ABL, BUT POLITICALLY ADRIFT 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  With Kosovo negotiations in full swing, Southern 
Serbia is calm and without incidents of interethnic violence. 
Politically, however, hardline Albanians in the ethnically-mixed 
muncipality of Bujanoviac are trying to squeeze Serbs out of 
participation in the municipal government there.  Barring a last 
minute compromise before the August 4 deadline, there will be repeat 
elections in Bujanovac.  Poloff delivered a strong message that all 
sides should show flexibility and give high priority to 
representation of all ethnicities in government. END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (U) Local political parties in Bujanovac have been unable to produce 
a governing majority since local elections there on June 4.  The 
hard-line nationalist Albanian party of Jonuz Musliu (9 of 41 seats) 
is attempting to coerce moderate Albanian Mayor Arifi's party (13 
seats) into forming a mono-ethnic coalition.  (Note: Moderate Serbs 
and Roma have only 5 and 2 seats, respectively. Serb Radicals won 12 
seats. End note.) Arifi favors inviting Serbs to participate in key 
positions, including the deputy mayorship.  An Albanian-only 
coalition in the mixed municipality of Bujanovac (34 percent Serb, 
56 percent Albanian) would mark a departure from the previous 
multi-ethnic municipal leadership structure. 
 
3.(U) Hardliner Musliu (LDP), who is on the U.S.E.O. list for earlier 
activities, told poloff that he is being flexible and only asking 
for reasonable concessions.  Arifi and the PVD, for their part, 
claim to have been reasonable with their offers of a deputy 
mayorship for Musliu among other positions in the government. 
Musliu told poloff he was committed to "not making trouble" and 
"finding a compromise."  Unless a compromise is reached by August 4, 
repeat elections will be triggered. 
 
¶4. (U) Moderate Mayor Arifi (PVD) has resisted Musliu's demands and 
continues to insist on including Serbs and Roma in government 
positions.  New elections will not, however, likely change the 
political equation: Arifi's PVD will not be able to get to a 
majority with a moderate Serb and Roma coalition.  Arifi is faced 
with this dilemma because voters in the June elections shifted their 
support from moderate Serbs to the Radicals (SRS).  Arifi doubts 
that Musliu has the support he claims from Kosovo Albanian leaders 
(Arifi says Musliu specifically cites support from Ceku and 
Haradinaj), and Arifi thinks Pristina knows it "does not gain from 
what Musliu is doing." 
 
¶5. (U) The GOS' Coordinating Body remains uninvolved.  Its leader Rasim 
Ljaljic told us that he is "aware of the situation" and has 
considered traveling to Bujanovac the week of July 31.  His 
subordinate on the ground, Sima Gazikalovic, told us the 
Coordinating Body made the decision to stay out of the way, saying 
their presence would likely do more harm than good. 
 
¶6. (U) Meanwhile in Presevo, Mayor Ragmi Mustafa (PDSh) continues to 
assure us that his inflammatory rhetoric during the campaign was 
only a product of elections and he is committed to Contact Group 
principles.  He told poloff that he knows "borders will not be 
changed" and that he "is not for a greater Albania." 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT:  With Kosovo negotiations in full swing, the 
region is currently stable.  Nevertheless, in order to prevent 
protests from Serb nationalists, it is important that the sides find 
a compromise which reflects the multiethnicity of Bujanovac, the 
only more-or-less evenly mixed Serb-Albanian municipality in Serbia. 
 We will also have to remain engaged even if a deal is struck, since 
Musliu would be able to bring down the municipal council leadership 
at any time he chooses. This might be likely if Albanian sentiments 
are affected by decisions on Kosovo, and he thinks his message will 
get him more votes at that time. END COMMENT. 
 
POLT