VZCZCXRO5277
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTA #2453/01 1921048
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111048Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY ALMATY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6144
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1611
RUEHAST/USOFFICE ASTANA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ALMATY 002453 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (J. MUDGE), DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA- 
HELBLING) 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRO-PRESIDENTIAL PARTIES MERGE 
 
REF: ALMATY 2074 
 
ALMATY 00002453  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  On July 4, the two main pro-presidential 
parties, Asar and Otan, merged.  President Nazarbayev, who 
will be the official head of this mega-party, praised the 
merger and laid out the new party's leadership structure and 
strategic priorities.  Dariga Nazarbayeva, the president's 
daughter and former head of Asar, characterized the merger 
as the best way to move the country forward.  She stressed 
that Asar's enthusiasm for innovative ideas and political 
approaches would be incorporated into the new Otan Party. 
End summary. 
 
------------------- 
Asar and Otan Unite 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On July 4, President Nazarbayev's Otan party held its 
9th Congress and voted to merge with Dariga Nazerbayeva's 
pro-presidential party Asar. About 500 people attended, 
including Otan activists, leaders of political 
organizations, government officials, and representatives of 
NGOs and the media.  The united party will keep the name 
Otan; President Nazarbayev remains the party head, and 
Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov remains the acting Otan chairman. 
Dariga Nazarbayeva and Alexander Pavlov were named deputy 
chairmen. 
 
---------------------------- 
President Praises the Merger 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Nazarbayev congratulated the parties, noting that the 
merger was happening at an important stage in the country's 
political development.  Specifically, he highlighted the 
work ahead in creating effective checks and balances among 
the three branches of power, in expanding the 
responsibilities and authorities of the parliament, and in 
strengthening the role of political parties.  The new united 
party, he suggested, would play a crucial role in each of 
these areas. 
 
¶4. (U) Nazarbayev stated that the merger would strengthen 
the party, pointing out that membership rolls now exceeded 
700,000.  He encouraged former Asar members to bring into 
the united party their progressive political approach and 
innovative spirit.  The new party, he opined, should combine 
Otan's reliability with Asar's energy.  To Nazarbayev, the 
merger proved not only the ideological similarity of the two 
parties, but also that Asar's and Otan's leaders placed the 
national interest above personal ambition. 
 
------------------ 
A New Party System 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) Voicing his desire to set up a new party system, 
Nazarbayev suggested that while political variety is 
important, only large, powerful parties could be truly 
effective.  Along these lines, he stressed the need for a 
stable, modern party system in which all parties are driven 
by one common national idea.  He also encouraged the new 
Otan Party to continue unification talks with other pro- 
presidential parties. 
 
¶6. (U) Regarding parliamentary reform, Nazarbayev proposed 
that two issues be addressed soon: a) whether the number of 
parliamentarians should be increased; and b) whether 
parliamentarians should be elected on a majoritarian system 
or a proportional system (which Nazarbayev believes confuses 
voters and results in unknown individuals, most often "money 
bags," getting into parliament). 
 
¶7. (U) Regarding parliamentary checks on executive power, 
Nazarbayev warned that the country needed a strong president 
and a vertical power structure within the executive branch. 
He specifically raised the issues of who would nominate the 
prime minister, who would control the formation of the 
cabinet, and to what degree the parliament would have 
control over the executive branch.  Nazarbayev stated that 
the answers to these questions would determine the future of 
the country and its people. 
 
¶8. (U) Nazarbayev listed the new Otan Party's objectives as 
continuity, effective internal party structure, modern 
management, strict party discipline, election management and 
 
ALMATY 00002453  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
reform, the development of the "Kazakhstan 2030" concept, 
and the development and implementation of a strategy for 
joining the 50 most competitive countries. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Zhumagulov and Nazarbayeva Give Their Views on the Merger 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶9. (U) Otan's acting chairman Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov and Asar 
leader Dariga Nazarbayeva also spoke.  Zhumagulov noted that 
since their joint efforts during last year's presidential 
elections, the two parties' positions had been getting 
closer.  He admitted that there were still some 
disagreements and sharp debates.  But he was confident that 
the parties would focus on issues on which they agreed 
because of their mutual desire to serve the country's higher 
interests. 
 
¶10. (U) Nazarbayeva used her remarks to explain the reasons 
behind the merger.  She characterized the bulk of pro- 
presidential forces as moderate conservatives that tended to 
trust existing patterns of power and quickly forgave any 
government wrong-doing.  She insisted that with such a 
mentality, nothing would change.  She made clear her 
distrust of radical changes, but emphasized that government 
reform was necessary to keep the country moving forward. 
According to Nazarbayeva, that is why Asar, with its 
vigorous energy, constructive criticism of the current 
establishment, and permanent search for innovative 
solutions, needed to join Otan. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Dariga Nazarbayeva used a series of interviews 
following the merger to appeal to Asar members for their 
understanding and support for her decision.  (Comment: This 
is not surprising, considering the decision to unite with 
Otan was made only the day before the Congress, and 
seemingly without consensus among Asar members.  End 
comment.)  Nazarbayeva said the central reason for the union 
was the similarity of the two parties' political and 
ideological platforms.  Both were parties of moderate 
conservatives opposed to radical changes.  She was careful 
to downplay the idea of any return to a monolithic party 
system; she highlighted Asar's traditions of liberalism and 
local self-government in an attempt to draw a clear 
distinction between the united Otan party and the former 
Communist Party of Soviet times.  She also hinted at the 
differences between the newly-united parties.  Borrowing a 
line from Pushkin, she equated the work ahead with "making a 
horse and a delicate deer pull one carriage." 
 
¶12. (U) Nazarbayeva admitted that Asar's disappearance from 
the political landscape was problematic, but said that it 
was the cost of compromise.  She stressed that while Asar 
was no longer an independent entity, its political work 
would continue.  She reasoned that a party's independence 
was a good thing only if that party had the tools to 
implement its ideas. 
 
--------------------------- 
Other Party Leaders Comment 
--------------------------- 
 
¶13. (U) The leaders of most of the other major political 
parties spoke out in favor of the merger.  Azat Peruashev of 
the Civic Party opined that it would strengthen the 
country's political and party system, and highlighted 
Nazarbayev's call to increase the role of political parties 
in forming government agencies.  Patriots Party leader Gani 
Kasymov discreetly announced after the Otan Congress that 
his party would change course and was in consultations 
regarding merger options.  Arseny Dusenov of Ak Zhol opined 
that party mergers are a natural part of the political 
process.  He added, however, that the new party needed to 
maintain its independence from the presidential 
administration. 
 
¶14. (U) Bulat Abilov of True Ak Zhol stated that all pro- 
presidential parties should unite; the president should be 
supported by one party under his control.  Abilov said it 
was clear that the forces opposing Nazarbayeva and her 
husband, Rakhat Aliyev, had won.  He felt the merger was 
best described as "a forced marriage" and predicted that 
confrontation would become more acute, though more 
disguised.  Abilov suggested that Kazakhstan's political 
elite was planning for the post-Nazarbayev era, and was 
apparently not interested in sharing power with the 
 
ALMATY 00002453  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
president's daughter.  The next step, he predicted, would be 
to try to force Nazarbayeva out of the country. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) Comment:  Many analysts see the two parties' 
unification as a hostile takeover of Asar by Otan, 
effectively marking the end of Nazarbayeva's independent 
political activities.  According to such theorists, the 
merger was the result of serious discord between the 
president and his daughter.  Other analysts deny the 
possibility of any such rift in the presidential family, and 
see the merger as the first in a series of maneuvers 
designed to usher Nazarbayev's chosen successor into power. 
In light of the simultaneous assault on Nazarbayeva and 
Aliyev's media holdings (reftel), the first scenario appears 
more likely.  End comment. 
 
ORDWAY