VZCZCXRO7954
RR RUEHNZ
DE RUEHWL #0480/01 1732150
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 222150Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2937
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0805

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000480 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/PD-AGRIMES, EAP/P-K BAILES, EAP/ANP-DRICCI, INR/R/MR 
 
E.O. 12985: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KPAO KMDR OPRC MNUC PREL NZ
SUBJECT: MEDIA REPORT OFFICIAL ADVICE ON VIABILITY OF NUCLEAR ENERGY 
IN NZ 
 
REF:  A) 05 WELLINGTON 650, B) WELLINGTON 260 
 
¶1. SUMMARY: On June 15, 2006, Radio New Zealand aired a report on 
the viability of nuclear energy in New Zealand after using the 
Official Information Act to obtain government papers prepared for 
the Minister of Energy. 
 
Two sets of official advice on possible future use of nuclear energy 
in New Zealand dismiss it as too expensive, too difficult to set up, 
and posing significant risks. However, the government papers say 
this could change within the next twenty years as the technology 
improves. 
 
Radio New Zealand reporter Caitlin Cherry canvassed the views of 
many of the major players:  New Zealand's Electricity Commissioner, 
Ministry of Economic Development, Green Party co-leader, an 
Australian and New Zealand energy analyst, and Acting Energy 
Minister Trevor Mallard. Quotes from the radio report are detailed 
below with the main protagonist in each paragraph underlined. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. Radio New Zealand outlines the Electricity Commissioner's view 
that nuclear energy is not presently a viable option for New 
Zealand. The network reports that Auckland's recent five-hour power 
cut prompted calls for the country to invest in nuclear power to 
meet future energy demands but that the Chair of the Electricity 
Commission, Roy Hemmingway, says that that argument has no merit. 
 
"It's very tempting whenever something happens like this, like 
happened in Auckland on Monday, that people with an agenda  for 
something will push that agenda as the solution. The truth is that 
nuclear power would make the electricity system in New Zealand less 
reliable rather than more, so it's not a solution to anything in the 
New Zealand power system at this stage." 
 
Reporter Caitlin Cherry reports this quote is consistent with advice 
Hemmingway has provided to the Government.  She says, "In his 
submission to the Energy Minister in March of this year, Roy 
Hemmingway argued that setting up a typical 1200 megawatt nuclear 
power plant would create massive problems for the energy system 
here. That's because if the plant ever trips off-line and there's a 
problem, full back-up power needs to be ready to fill that gap. Mr. 
Hemmingway says that would require an unreasonably large amount of 
generation just sitting there as a back-up." 
 
¶3. RNZ reports that the Electricity Commissioner, Roy Hemmingway, 
says that the situation could change. 
 
"Now on the horizon, maybe 20 years out, there is potentially some 
technology change in nuclear power that will make it economical at 
much smaller sizes. When those plans have been demonstrated to be 
available, I think that New Zealand might take a look at them, but 
at this stage nuclear power is not the right choice for New 
Zealand," says Hemmingway. 
 
¶4. The news report goes on to underline that another Government 
agency has provided similar advice. RNZ states that the same 
argument is made in the Economic Development Paper, which also 
points out that this country would need an entire nuclear 
infrastructure and trained nuclear physicists and engineers, 
significantly adding to the already huge cost. 
 
¶5. The network also interviewed Green Party co-leader Jeanette 
Fitzsimmons, who agrees that nuclear power isn't feasible for New 
Zealand, but is reported to accept that the issue will need to be 
looked at again when the technology improves. 
 
"If, in the next generation there is a new technology that is safer, 
cheaper and doesn't have all the problems associated with this one, 
then of course we should look at it again -- but we can't wait for 
technology to save us in that way; we have to do something now and 
the obvious things to do now are much greater energy efficiency, use 
of technologies that are already here and cost-effective like wind 
and solar and bio-fuels. In a generation's time we probably won't 
even need to think nuclear." 
 
¶6. The network also sought the views of two energy industry analysts 
-- one Australian and one New Zealander. Reporter Caitlin Cherry set 
up the quote from the Australian scientist by noting that "across 
the Tasman Prime Minister John Howard has set up a task-force to 
look at whether Australia should adopt nuclear energy. While most of 
New Zealand's power comes from hydro-schemes, 86% of Australia's 
energy comes from coal, a major contributor to green-house gases." 
 
 The editor of science magazine "Cosmos," Wilson da Silva, believes 
that Australia will have no option but to go nuclear. 
 
"I think that it is inevitable, particularly with global warming now 
taking away water, we don't have hydro as an option. Australia has 
always been the second driest continent after Antarctica, so we 
 
WELLINGTON 00000480  002 OF 002 
 
 
don't have the option of using hydro, which is the one that 
generates clean power without any greenhouse gases. So if we don't 
want to down to the coal and gas and oil, so we basically have to 
think about nuclear and I think it will happen here [in Australia]," 
says da Silva. 
 
Wilson da Silvia adds that there is some significant work under way 
around the world in creating safer, smaller, and more efficient 
nuclear power plants. 
 
¶7. The second power industry consultant RNZ interviewed was New 
Zealander Bryan Leyland, who has also been looking at some of the 
new technology. He says there is no point waiting around to see what 
happens. 
 
"If we started now, if we started doing our homework, by the time we 
are in a position to order one, which would be several years, these 
newer plants will be available anyway and it is still going to be 
several years till it is running. So the time that they are talking 
about in the future is the time that I think we would arrive at if 
we started doing our investigations now." 
 
¶8. Radio New Zealand considers that the Government is unlikely to 
undertake such investigation and says that the Government has 
reiterated that nuclear power is not an option for New Zealand. 
Acting Energy Minister Trevor Mallard says: 
 
"Roy Hemmingway, who is the Electricity Commissioner, essentially 
had it right. Roy is a supporter of nuclear power in the right 
context. What he says is that our energy system is so small that 
technically having a nuclear power station, one of 1000 or 1200 
megawatts -- which would be a quarter of the supply of NZ -- having 
to have standby generation ready to go would just be enormously 
inefficient... I don't know of any suggestion which makes a power 
plant of below say 600 megawatts nuclear power plant something which 
is viable and if that's the case you'd have to have another power 
plant one and half times the size of the biggest one in New Zealand 
sitting ready to go if this thing went down so there is an absolute 
duplication which makes it uneconomic here." 
 
¶9. In a social conversation one media contact from a rival radio 
network has suggested that beyond the logistics the Labor Government 
may also have a political motivation as she believes that "until now 
being anti-nuclear has been the one issue that has consistently 
united the right and left of the Labor caucus." 
 
MCCORMICK