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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 003580 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/28/06 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, LDP race, BOJ 
chief's investment 
 
(2) Okinawa gov. to step down this fall 
 
(3) Editorial: Japanese, US leaders should give strong warning to 
North Korea 
 
(4) Editorial: US-India nuclear pact raises questions about 
sustainability of nuclear nonproliferation framework 
 
(5) WTO ministerial to kick off on June 29; Drafting modality 
agreement to come to crucial stage; US concessions hold key 
 
(6) Three-party talks on Japan's policy stance in WTO talks confirm 
unity prior to ministerial; Japan to call for realistic level of 
tariff cuts 
 
(7) Agricultural trade panel Acting Chairman Oshima expresses 
willingness to back up Nakagawa's efforts in WTO ministerial 
 
(8) Editorial: US should become less "ambitious" 
 
(9) WTO ministerial meeting to kick off on June 29; Gap between US 
and Japan-EU on camp remains; Agreement before year's end appears 
difficult 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, LDP race, BOJ 
chief's investment 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
April 25, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in%age, rounded off. Bracketed figures denote 
proportions to all respondents. Parentheses denote the results of 
the last survey conducted May 20-21.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
Yes          45          (45) 
No           41          (39) 
 
Q: Why? (One reason only. Left column for those marking "yes" on 
previous question, and right for those saying "no.") 
 
The prime minister is Mr. Koizumi 
21(9)          7(3) 
The prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 
15(6)          8(3) 
From the aspect of policies 
37(17)          59(24) 
Because of the coalition government 
8(3)          13(5) 
No particular reason 
17(8)          12(6) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? 
 
 
TOKYO 00003580  002 OF 009 
 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)                  35          (34) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)     20          (19) 
New Komeito (NK)                                 3           (3) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)                   2           (2) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)        1           (2) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)       0           (0) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)          0           (0) 
Liberal League (LL or Jiyu Rengo)                0           (0) 
Other political parties                          0           (1) 
None                                            33          (37) 
No answer + don't know                           6           (2) 
 
Q: Are you interested in the LDP presidential election scheduled for 
this September? 
 
Yes          59 
No           39 
 
Q: As likely candidates for the next prime minister, there are now 
some names coming up, such as Mr. Taro Aso, Mr. Shinzo Abe, Mr. 
Sadakazu Tanigaki, and Mr. Yasuo Fukuda. Who do you think is 
appropriate for the next prime minister? 
 
Taro Aso                   5           (3) 
Shinzo Abe                45          (41) 
Sadakazu Tanigaki          3           (1) 
Yasuo Fukuda              25          (29) 
Other persons             12          (16) 
 
Q: (Only for those who named one of the four persons) Why? (One 
choice only) 
 
His policy and opinions are good                19          (15) 
He seems to be a man of action                  32          (25) 
His personal character and image are good       46          (36) 
 
Q: (Only for those who named one of the four persons) Do you think 
you know well about the person you chose, or do you just recognize 
the person or know the person's name? 
 
Know well 
31          (24) 
Just recognize the person and knows the person's name 
66          (51) 
 
Q: Would you like the next prime minister to continue Prime Minister 
Koizumi's structural reforms? Would you like the next prime minister 
to reconsider Prime Minister Koizumi's way of doing things, or would 
you otherwise like the next prime minister to change it? 
 
Continue            17 
Reconsider          54 
Change              23 
 
Q: Do you have expectations for DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa? 
 
Yes          45 
No           48 
 
Q: Bank of Japan Governor Fukui has profited from his investment of 
10 million yen in the Murakami Fund. The BOJ head is in a position 
to determine Japan's monetary policy. What do you think about his 
investment for such profit-making purposes? 
 
TOKYO 00003580  003 OF 009 
 
 
 
It's a problem              80 
It's not a problem          15 
 
Q: Do you think it hurts public trust in the BOJ's monetary policy? 
 
Yes          70 
No           25 
 
Q: Do you think Mr. Fukui should resign as BOJ governor? 
 
Yes          67 
No           25 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted June 24-25 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. This 
RDD formula chooses persons for the survey from among all eligible 
voters throughout the nation on a three-sage random-sampling basis. 
Valid answers were obtained from 1,965 persons (53% ). 
 
(2) Okinawa gov. to step down this fall 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 1) (Abridged) 
June 28, 2006 
 
Okinawa Prefecture's Governor Keiichi Inamine, now determined not to 
run in this September's gubernatorial election for a third term, 
will formally announce in a meeting of the prefectural assembly 
tomorrow that he will retire, an aide to the governor revealed 
yesterday. Now that the governor will clarify his retirement, the 
ruling parties will likely expedite their screening committee's 
narrowing down of post-Inamine candidates for the election. There 
are now 13 recommended candidates on the ruling bloc's list. 
 
The ruling camp intended to select a final candidate by the end of 
June but is now behind in screening the candidates. The ruling 
parties and the governor's backers had therefore expected the 
governor to avoid announcing his retirement before they can decide 
on one candidate. The screening committee asked the governor on June 
25 to abstain from announcing his retirement during the prefectural 
assembly's June session. 
 
At the committee's request, Inamine considered foregoing his 
announcement of retirement before the prefectural assembly in its 
June session. However, the governor has now made up his mind to 
clarify his retirement. The governor probably thought to himself 
that a belated announcement of retirement could cause the electorate 
to misunderstand that he may run in the election and that such a 
misunderstanding could affect the screening of candidates. 
 
(3) Editorial: Japanese, US leaders should give strong warning to 
North Korea 
 
SANKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
June 28, 2006 
 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi departed for Canada and the United 
States. He is expected to meet with US President George W. Bush on 
June 29 in Washington. 
 
One of main topics of their discussion is how to respond to North 
Korea, which has continued preparations for launching a Taepodong-2 
long-range ballistic missile. If the North launches it, Japan and 
 
TOKYO 00003580  004 OF 009 
 
 
the US should give Pyongyang a strong warning to immediately end the 
missile threat, showing their determination to invoke sanctions. 
 
It is certain that Japan will suffer if Pyongyang launches a 
missile. When the North launched a Taepodong-1 missile in 1998, a 
booster, the first part of the missile, fell into the Sea of Japan, 
and a booster and warhead from the second part dropped into waters 
off the Sanriku coast. The outer part of the top of the missile's 
second part fell into waters about 60 kilometers from Japanese 
territorial waters. If the North launches a Taepodong-2, the 
possibility of a warhead falling on Japan cannot be dismissed. 
 
What the missile carries is "unknown," according to President Bush. 
The Japanese government does not need to worry, but it should face 
the fact that North Korea has physical means of threatening the 
Japanese public. At the same time, the government should take 
measures in response to any act violating its sovereignty. 
 
Prime Minister Koizumi stated that it would be better not to reveal 
what kind of measures Japan would take, while stressing that he 
would respond harshly if Pyongyang were to test a missile. 
 
Late last year, the government indicated that Japan had no choice 
but to impose economic sanctions unless North Korea responded 
sincerely on the abduction issue. The government, however, has not 
imposed any economic sanctions. What has made Koizumi hesitate to do 
so? It is clear that a missile launch would violate the 2002 
Japan-North Korea Pyongyang Declaration. By taking a firm stand, the 
prime minister would be able to send an appropriate message warning 
North Korea. 
 
Japan's missile defense system will go online next year or later. 
Until then, Japan has not choice but to entrust its security to US 
military's deterrence. Two US Aegis destroyers capable of detecting 
and attacking missiles have already been deployed in the Sea of 
Japan. 
 
Koizumi and Bush will confirm in their meeting that Japan and the 
United States will strengthen their alliance. Looking at the severe 
situation in the world, they should take advantage of their summit 
to make the bilateral ties move one step forward. 
 
(4) Editorial: US-India nuclear pact raises questions about 
sustainability of nuclear nonproliferation framework 
 
YOMIURI (Page 3) (Full) 
June 28, 2006 
 
How Japan should respond to the US-India pact on civilian nuclear 
cooperation is a significant issue for Japan's nuclear policy. 
 
The US Congress has started discussions on a revision of the law to 
enable the United States and India to cooperate on nuclear power. 
 
In a hearing at Congress, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice 
explained two points as reasons for the need for US-India nuclear 
cooperation, namely that strategic ties would be strengthened and 
that the international nuclear nonproliferation framework would be 
solidified. 
 
For the United States, the pact has significant strategic meaning: 
It would constrain China, ensure energy security, and allow the 
entry of US nuclear firms into the Indian market. 
 
TOKYO 00003580  005 OF 009 
 
 
 
It is also true that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 
will be able to inspect most of India's nuclear facilities. 
 
Indian Prime Minister Singh promised US President George W. Bush in 
March that India would accept IAEA inspections of civilian nuclear 
facilities. Bush also promised Singh that the United States would 
promote civilian nuclear cooperation, such as construction of 
nuclear power plants and the supply of nuclear fuel. 
 
The US-India agreement approves India's possession of nuclear 
weapons. India, without joining the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty 
(NPT), will obtain its benefits -- nuclear cooperation for peaceful 
use. 
 
The NPT imposes strict regulations on the peaceful use of nuclear 
energy. The treaty allows only five countries -- the United States, 
Britain, France, Russia, and China -- to have nuclear arms, calling 
on other member countries to abandon development of nuclear weapons 
and requiring them to accept IAEA inspections. The treaty allows 
them to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes in return. 
 
Giving special treatment to India, which is not a party to the NPT, 
might shake the credibility of the treaty. 
 
North Korea and Iran might use the US-India accord as an excuse for 
their backward-looking stance and opposition to IAEA inspections. 
 
Will India sign or ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)? 
How will India deal with negotiations on the Cutoff Treaty, which 
bans the production of highly enriched uranium and other nuclear 
materials? 
 
In a meeting of the 45-nation-member nuclear supply group (NSG), to 
which Japan belongs, the US government has sought to apply to India 
the guidelines prohibiting exports of nuclear materials and 
technology to countries that do not allow strict inspections. 
 
If a standoff deepens between NSG members supporting Washington's 
proposal and member countries opposing it, the NSG will fail to 
function. If so, the nuclear nonproliferation system will weaken. 
Without making clear how to link the US-India accord to the 
maintaining of the nuclear nonproliferation framework, it is 
unreasonable for the United States to cooperate on nuclear power 
with a nuclear weapons state that is a non-NPT member. 
 
(5) WTO ministerial to kick off on June 29; Drafting modality 
agreement to come to crucial stage; US concessions hold key 
 
Japan Agricultural News (Top Play) (Full) 
June 29, 2006 
 
In a bid to reach a modality agreement (guidelines for reducing 
trade protection) on the agricultural sector, discussions on which 
are destined to run into snags, the World Trade Organization (WTO) 
will hold a meeting of some member nations from June 29. With 
exporting and importing countries remaining at odds over this issue, 
there is no knowing whether such an agreement can be reached or not. 
How the US, which has major influence, will move will hold the key 
to negotiations. 
 
Ministerial-level officials from 30 to 40 countries, including the 
US, the EU, Brazil, and India, are expected to attend the meeting 
 
TOKYO 00003580  006 OF 009 
 
 
with the aim of having their views reflected in modalities. Talks on 
sectors other than agriculture will also take place. 
 
The agricultural talks will be pursued based on the draft modalities 
presented on the 22nd. On many points, the draft simply listed views 
presented by various countries and groups. The talks will, 
therefore, likely aim at finding a breakthrough with a focus on 
major agenda items, including the rate of cuts in tariffs, the 
number of key trade items and the handling of such, and the rate of 
cuts in domestic subsidies. 
 
The expectation is that if the upcoming ministerial meeting fails to 
find a breakthrough, it will be extremely difficult to conclude the 
Doha Round (multilateral trade talks) before year's end. Because of 
this situation, participating countries and territories have hinted 
that they are ready to make concessions to some extent. In 
particular, how the US will move is drawing attention from various 
countries. 
 
Shoichi Nakagawa, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, 
after appearing on a TV talk show expressed strong interest in a 
series of US statements that hinted at its readiness to make 
concessions. He noted, "I cannot tell whether the US is serious, 
whether this represents progress, or whether they are just faking." 
 
With the off-year election close at hand in November, the US is in a 
situation where it finds it politically difficult to make 
concessions. Nevertheless, it is possible to assume that some kind 
of political decision by the US would prompt Japan and the EU to 
make a compromise, moving the stalemated talks forward. 
 
However, even if the US were to make concessions, they could be no 
more than marginal. The Japanese government is closely watching how 
the US will move, as one government source noted: "The US might try 
to play up small concessions. It is necessary to wait and see 
whether what the US calls concessions are really that for other 
countries as well." 
 
(6) Three-party talks on Japan's policy stance in WTO talks confirm 
unity prior to ministerial; Japan to call for realistic level of 
tariff cuts 
 
NIHON NOGYO SHIMBUN (Full) 
June 27, 2006 
 
Prior to the planned World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial 
meeting to be held in Geneva, Switzerland, with a view to setting 
modalities (standards for protection cuts), representatives from the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the government, and the Ministry of 
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) decided on Japan's 
policy stance in their meeting at LDP headquarters yesterday. In the 
meeting, MAFF Minister Shoichi Nakagawa indicated his determination 
to do his best to have rules reflecting the stance of importer 
nations laid down, saying: "Japan will protect what should be 
protected. In the talks, I will make utmost efforts with the help of 
the party and agricultural groups." 
 
MAFF officials explained that Japan will take a positive stance in 
the talks on strengthening cooperation with the nine other major 
food-importing economies (G-10). In the thorny market-access area, 
Japan will call for setting realistic levels for tariff cuts and 
oppose the proposed introduction of tariff caps. 
 
 
TOKYO 00003580  007 OF 009 
 
 
Before leaving for Geneva as chairman of the LDP delegation in 
conjunction with the WTO ministerial, LDP Research Commission on 
comprehensive Agriculture Chairman Yoshio Yatsu said: "We will 
indirectly support the ministerial talks." JA Central Union of 
Agricultural Cooperatives Chairman Isao Miyata emphatically said: 
"We will tenaciously work in cooperation with agricultural groups 
from the other G-10 members." 
 
(7) Agricultural trade panel Acting Chairman Oshima expresses 
willingness to back up Nakagawa's efforts in WTO ministerial 
 
NIHON NOGYO SHIMBUN (Full) 
June 27, 2006 
 
LDP Research Commission on Trade in Agricultural, Forestry, and 
Fisheries Products Acting Chairman Tadamori Oshima said in a WTO 
meeting of representatives from the government, the Liberal 
Democratic Party, and agricultural groups yesterday: "We expect 
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Minister Nakagawa will make 
utmost efforts. I hope he will take care of himself and do his 
best." Oshima thus encouraged Shoichi Nakagawa prior to his 
departure (for Geneva) to attend the WTO ministerial as a 
representative of the Japanese government. He also revealed the 
party's plan to dispatch a delegation to offer indirect support, 
saying: "We don't know what difficulties lie ahead under this severe 
situation. We will back up Minister Nakagawa in cooperation with 
agricultural organizations." 
 
(8) Editorial: US should become less "ambitious" 
 
NIHON NOGYO SHIMBUN (Page 13) (Full) 
June 23, 2006 
 
In agriculture talks under the World Trade Organization (WTO), 
negotiations on modalities will come to the crucial stage from late 
this month through early next month. The JA group will hold a WTO 
national rally in Tokyo today, with the aim of preventing an upper 
limit from being set on tariff rates on mainstay farm products. The 
group is pursuing the policy of "coexistence of diverse forms of 
agriculture." In the process of establishing modalities (standards 
for protection cuts), this global desire must be respected. 
 
A ministerial meeting on farm products will be held in Geneva, 
Switzerland, where the WTO headquarters is located. Agriculture, 
Forestry, and Fisheries Minister Shoichi Nakagawa will also 
participate in the meeting in an effort to establish modalities, but 
difficult negotiations are foreseen, as the United States has stuck 
to its proposal giving priority to its own interests. The proposal 
is lenient on the US but severe for other countries. 
 
The US proposal is overly "ambitious." The world's largest food 
exporter proposes that tariffs on general products should be reduced 
by up to 90%. The US has continued to refuse to pull back this 
proposal designed to completely remove tariffs. Such a stance is 
tantamount to an attempt to destroy the Japanese and other 
importers' agriculture industry and is quite high-handed. 
 
Under the current system, the margin of reduction in tariff rates on 
mainstay farm products is set at a low level. The US, however, 
insists that the ratio of key products to all products should be 
kept at only 1%, while Japan on behalf of the Group of 10 (10 
food-importing economies) calls for 15%, including rice, wheat, 
dairy products, sugar, and starch. The 1% proposal is extreme. 
 
TOKYO 00003580  008 OF 009 
 
 
 
The US is also maneuvering to introduce a tariff cap system for 
mainstay farm products and lower tariff rates to below 75%. Under 
this proposal, Japan's current 778% tariff rate on imported rice 
would be reduced to less than one-tenth. 
 
Food-exporting economies under the lead of the US propose that 
low-tariff import quotas for farm products be expanded as 
compensation for the high tariffs on mainstay products. For 
instance, Japan is mandated to import 767,000 tons of rice under the 
so-called minimum access formula. If the proposal is adopted, Japan 
will be required to import one to five million tons more of rice. 
 
The chairman of the agricultural talks, in a bid to set modalities, 
has urged the member countries to coordinate views based on the 
proposal made by the group of 20 potential developing countries 
(G-20), including Brazil. But the G-20 proposal is extremely close 
to the US proposal, and Japan cannot accept it. The JA group has 
expressed "absolute opposition." 
 
The US, Brazil, Australia, and other food-exporting economies should 
be aware that as long as the principle of "coexistence of diversity 
in agriculture," as called for by Japan and other many importers, is 
not reflected, modalities will never be established. Importers also 
should make significant concessions if they want to see the talks 
end successfully. The agricultural talks have reached an important 
phase. Set off by the WTO national rally by the JA group today, the 
importer nations should reiterate the need for coexistence and 
strengthen cooperation within and outside the nation so as not to 
allow exporter nations to take act as they like. 
 
(9) WTO ministerial meeting to kick off on June 29; Gap between US 
and Japan-EU on camp remains; Agreement before year's end appears 
difficult 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 5) (Excerpts) 
June 27, 2006 
 
Multilateral trade talks (Doha round) at the World Trade 
Organization (WTO) have entered the home stretch. A ministerial 
meeting is to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, starting on June 
29, with the aim of reaching a consensus on trade liberalization 
rules for agricultural goods and mined and manufactured products. 
The growing view is that it will be difficult to reach a consensus 
with the US seeking substantial market liberalization and Japan and 
European countries wishing to constrain the margin of tariff cuts. 
 
The ministerial meeting will have the participation of about 40 
countries and territories, including Japan, the US, and European 
countries. Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Toshihiro Nikai 
and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Shoichi 
Nakagawa will represent Japan. 
 
In the agricultural sector, the US is seeking an average 66% tariff 
cut, creating a division with Japan, which wants the margin of such 
a cut to be no more than 28%, and the EU, which wants a 41% 
reduction. The US is being urged to substantially cut its 
agricultural subsidies. Brazil and some other countries that want to 
increase exports to industrialized countries have been asking for 
cuts on mined and manufactured products. The agricultural talks are 
showing signs or becoming a three-sided or even a four-sided fight. 
 
On June 23, the chairman presented a set of proposals for both the 
 
TOKYO 00003580  009 OF 009 
 
 
agriculture and mined and manufactured sectors, which are to form 
the basis for the ministerial meeting. The contents of the package 
were no more than the list of arguments already presented by various 
countries. Coordination of views is needed on about 700 items, 
including the rates of reductions in tariffs. 
 
The US, a food exporting country, holds the key to the fate of the 
talks. It has been decided that modified rates will be applied to 
some products, including Japan's rice, as exceptions. The US has 
called for holding the number of items treated as exceptions to 1% 
of all items. It is also calling for capping tariff rates on such 
exceptional items at 75%. Japan, which imposes a 778% tariff on 
rice, and the EU are opposing the US proposal as unrealistic. 
 
Chances are that if the talks bog down, the US may be criticized as 
the culprit. However, some suspect that the US, which is unable to 
move with the midterm election close at hand, might make concessions 
within narrow limits, thereby blaming Japan and European countries 
in the event the talks break down. Should that occur, Japan would 
bear the brunt of criticism for having opened its agriculture market 
only on a piecemeal basis. 
 
Unless progress is made to some extent, it will be impossible to 
discuss other subjects, such as the services sector and assistance 
to developing countries. If that happens, it would be hopeless to 
reach a final agreement at year's end. The Trade Promotion Authority 
that the US Congress has granted to the Bush administration will 
expire next July. According to a government source, if that happens, 
it will take one or two years for the US government to be ready to 
pursue trade negotiations, meaning that trade talks will be 
effectively put on hold. There is fear in Japan of losing 
opportunities to expand trade with developing countries. 
 
DONOVAN