VZCZCXRO1517
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #1945/01 1590116
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 080116Z JUN 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0560
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5276
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0183
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1286
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5247
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9367
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6497

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001945 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: DPP Primary for Kaohsiung Mayoral election - High Stakes, 
High Tension 
 
REF: A) 2006 TAIPEI 1380  B) 2006 TAIPEI 1461 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. Summary:  After much public and party debate on who should 
represent the DPP in the December 2006 Kaohsiung mayoral election, 
former Council of Labor Affairs (CLA) Chairperson Chen Chu garnered 
80 percent of DPP member votes (19,765) during the May 28 DPP 
primary to become the party's mayoral candidate.  Legislator Guan 
Bi-ling, who registered to run in the DPP primary, suddenly 
announced her withdrawal from the primary on May 25 after the DPP 
Central Standing Committee refused attempts by high profile members 
to draft Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to stand as its 
candidate.  However, Chen's win in the primary does not end her 
woes, as former-premier and former-Kaohsiung Mayor Frank Hsieh as 
well as the Taiwan Solidarity Union's (TSU) Lo Chi-ming line up 
against Chen Chu's candidacy, claiming her involvement in the KRTC 
scandal bodes ill for a pan-green victory in Kaohsiung.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2.  Although incumbent DPP Legislator Guan Bi-ling and former CLA 
Chairperson Chen Chu both registered early and campaigned hard for 
the May 28 DPP primary former Premier Frank Hsieh and DPP Chairman 
Yu Shyi-kun tried to include Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan in 
the primary.  In proposing to reopen the primary registration or use 
only polling to decide the DPP candidate, they argued that winning 
the Kaohsiung mayoral seat required Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Yeh 
Chu-lan's universal acceptance by local factions and her pristine 
image.  Yeh, untainted by the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation 
(KRTC) scandal, in which may of the DPP's most significant players 
were implicated (see reftel A), arguably was the only candidate who 
could guarantee the KRTC scandal won't harm the DPP this December in 
its local mayoral election. 
 
¶3.  The DPP Central Standing committee overruled the two proposals 
on May 24.  In highly public arguments, Premier Su Tseng-chang and 
New Tide faction leader Wu Nai-jen along with some other committee 
members disagreed with Yu and Hsieh, emphasizing that fairness and 
democratic procedure required adherence to party primary rules. The 
committee then decided to maintain its original primary mechanism to 
select its candidate for the Kaohsiung mayoral race. 
 
¶4.  When the DPP closed all doors to drafting Yeh, Legislator Guan 
Bi-ling announced suddenly on May 25 that she would withdraw from 
the primary and terminate her campaign, thus making Chen Chu the 
sole candidate running in the primary.  Guan stated to the press 
that she respected the Party Central Standing Committee's decision, 
but said that the real dispute of who is the most suitable candidate 
really had not been resolved.  However, for the sake of party 
solidarity, she decided to end her campaign and gave her blessing to 
Chen Chu. 
 
¶5.  A week before the primary, in an exclusive interview with the 
China Times, former Premier Frank Hsieh stated that Chen Chu's role 
in the KRTC scandal would definitely make her an easy target for the 
opposition to attack.  Hsieh opined that the DPP and Chen Chu would 
lose the Kaohsiung mayoral election because she faces so many 
obstacles to her election bid.  Hsieh reiterated his support for 
Legislator Guan Bi-ling.  As reported in the June 2 Taiwan Times, 
Taiwan Solidarity Union Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Lo Chi-ming also 
struck out at Chen Chu, alleging a broad-ranging conspiracy theory 
placing Chen Chu at the heart of the KRTC scandal and its 
destructive aftermath.  Chen Chu's campaign office responded that 
Lo's allegation is baseless, urging the pan green camp to 
consolidate and defend the DPP's rule in southern Taiwan. 
 
¶6.  Some local DPP members have expressed opposition to Hsieh's 
interference in selecting a mayoral candidate, saying the primary is 
part of the DPP tradition and regulations.  They argued that if the 
DPP yields to political pressure between local factions, it will 
lose one of its few remaining demonstrated core values, that of 
respecting and using democratic methods to select candidates.  These 
locals believe Chen Chu's strong lead in most polls clearly reflects 
strong support among Kaohsiung residents. 
 
¶7.  During the May 28 primary, Chen Chu garnered 80 percent (19,765) 
of DPP member votes making her candidacy irrefutable.  Although Guan 
Bi-ling has pulled out from the race, Chen Chu, however, now insists 
that the DPP proceed on to the traditional second stage of a 
primary, which is polling.  Although Guan feels that is not 
necessary, she has agreed that according to the DPP's primary rules, 
a primary has to proceed into its second stages unless all 
 
TAIPEI 00001945  002 OF 002 
 
 
candidates agree to terminate the process. 
 
¶8.  When asked how she would build a coalition between factions (see 
reftel B) after the primary, Chen Chu pointed out that the damage 
done to the DPP by multiple instances of corruption is worse than 
any existing factional struggle.  In terms of being a "soft target" 
for the KMT, she clarified that had she done anything illegal 
Chairperson of CLA, she would have been exposed by labor brokers 
long before the KRTC scandal broke.  The DPP has lost people's 
faith, she said, because of corruption in the DPP administration. 
She strongly urged legal authorities to thoroughly investigate those 
cases and remove involved officials from their posts.  Only in doing 
so could the DPP ever hope to win back the people's support and 
faith.  She described the DPP as a sinking boat, warning that while 
the whole party's basic survival is at stake, no one should think 
too far ahead to the 2008 presidential election. 
 
¶9.  Comment.  Plagued by a relentless series of scandals following 
the Thai labor riots (ref A), maintaining Kaohsiung City under DPP 
rule seems to have become a goal of desperation for the party.  Its 
pleas to members and voters to maintain faith and keep a high morale 
despite their disappointment and low popularity polls numbers for 
President Chen reflect that sense of urgency.  Calculating its 
chance of winning Taipei's mayoral seat as slender, the Kaohsiung 
mayoral election appears to be the party's last hope to provide 
momentum and give the DPP a shot at winning the 2008 presidential 
election. End comment. 
 
THIELE 
 
YOUNG