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UNCLAS QUITO 001588 
 
SIPDIS 
CORRECTED COPY - CAPTION ADDED 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: INDIGENOUS HEARTLAND DIVIDED ON ELECTIONS 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The indigenous heartland provinces of 
Chimborazo and Cotopaxi are predominantly indigenous 
strongholds of the Pachakutik Movement.  Despite Pachakutik's 
dominance, the indigenous movement is fractured internally 
over whether to run its own candidate or support Rafael 
Correa, and also along religious lines.  As a result, most 
consider center-left candidate Leon Roldos to be the current 
presidential favorite.  Rafael Correa in Chimborazo, and 
Alvaro Noboa in Cotopaxi, appear to be running second.  There 
is also lingering support for deposed ex-president Lucio 
Gutierrez, in both provinces.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) During a visit to the highland provinces of 
Chimborazo and Cotopaxi on June 19-21 PolOffs met with 
municipal and provincial officials, the provincial electoral 
tribunals, political party leaders, and civil society 
representatives to discuss local views on upcoming national 
elections in October.  In public events PolOffs highlighted 
USG engagement and the importance of democratic elections. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) PolOffs' visit to Cotopaxi province was preceded by 
several days by Cuban VP Carlos Lage, who had visited with 
President Palacio, to inaugurate the opening of an 
ophthalmology clinic where Cuban doctors are currently 
working.  (Another such clinic was opened the same day with 
Cuban support in populous coastal Guayas province.)  Cotopaxi 
Prefect Umajinga downplayed to PolOffs any potential 
political role for Cuban technicians in the province, who are 
invited only to fill yawning social deficits in medicine and 
to fight illiteracy.  The mayor and other mestizo leaders, 
however, privately expressed concern over Umajinga's links to 
the Cuba, where he has visited several times. 
 
Provincial Electoral History 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) The province of Chimborazo, named after the towering 
6,267 m extinct volcano and Ecuador's highest point, has 
316,500 registered voters, representing 3.6 percent of the 
national electorate.  Chimborazo is predominantly rural and 
roughly 70 percent indigenous, with most of the mestizo 
minority concentrated in the provincial capital of Riobamba. 
Over 30% of the population is illiterate.  Recently 
evangelical Christianity has gained popularity in the 
province, creating fissures in the predominantly Catholic 
indigenous communities.  In recent years, the Pachakutik 
Movement, named after the 15th century Incan ruler Pachakuti, 
has dominated the province.  Significant ethnic divides 
remain, however, between indigenous and mestizo leaders, and 
between Catholic and evangelical protestant indigenous.  The 
evangelicals, represented by the "Amauta" movement, comprise 
roughly 20% of the indigenous population. 
 
¶5.  (U) In 2004, Mariano Curicama Guaman (Pachakutik) was 
elected Chimborazo's first indigenous prefect (U.S. 
governor-equivalent) with 31% of the vote, while Angel 
Ignacio Yanez, a mestizo allied with former president Oswaldo 
Hurtado, a native son, won the mayorship of Riobamba with 30% 
(and Pachakutik's backing).  Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez 
received 79% of the vote in the second round of the 2002 
presidential elections; also-ran banana magnate Alvaro Noboa 
(Roldosista Institutional Renewal Party-PRIAN) won just 21%. 
 
¶6.  (U) Meanwhile, the smaller (2.9% of the national 
electorate) province of Cotopaxi, named for the world's 
highest active volcano, is also predominantly indigenous, 
with the same rural-urban divide between indigenous and 
mestizo leaders.  Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez captured 79% 
of the second round presidential vote in 2002, with Alvaro 
Noboa receiving 21%.  In 2004, indigenous Cesar Umajinga 
Guaman (Pachakutik) won re-election as prefect with 39% of 
the vote.  Mestizo Rafael Enrique Maya (PRIAN) won as mayor 
of Latacunga with 26% the same year, narrowly defeating the 
Democratic Left (ID) candidate. 
 
Electoral Preparations Proceeding 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Electoral Tribunal President Rocio Solorzano, who 
hails from the Marxist Popular Democracy Movement (MPD) and 
other electoral officials downplayed past incidence of 
electoral fraud in the province.  (Note:  provincial election 
officials represent the seven parties with the most votes at 
the national level.  The presidency of the tribunal at the 
provincial level is also allocated for each province at the 
national level, with the presidency not normally given to the 
dominant party in the province.  End Note.)  Election 
officials said they were overworked and constrained by the 
geography and lack of resources.  They had yet to receive 
training from the national Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) 
in election procedures, and were focusing on getting 
motivated and responsible people to man the polling stations. 
 In past elections, public sector bosses have assigned duty 
to unlucky public employees.  To remedy this, TSE officials 
propose to use more local university students for the 
upcoming election. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Women's groups and independent election monitors 
told us that women's electoral rights have been curtailed in 
the past in both provinces.  Most attributed this to the high 
percentage of indigenous in the area, saying indigenous 
culture is macho and limits the public role of women. 
Solorzano, the first woman TSE president in Chimborazo, said 
she would attempt to change this by applying to the letter 
the law dictating the alternation of men and women candidates 
on party lists.  The law mandates a 45% quota for female 
candidates.  In the past, parties have violated the spirit of 
the law by listing women as alternates, included spouses of 
party leaders, and alternated multiple male candidates at the 
top of the list, followed by an equal amount of women, below 
the level considered likely to win. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Cotopaxi Electoral Tribunal President Leonardo 
Segovia (also MPD) told PolOffs that Cotopaxi had no history 
of electoral fraud and that he was committed to running 
transparent and fair elections.  In contrast with his 
counterpart in Chimborazo, Segovia was equivocal about 
applying the male-female alternation law, noting the national 
electoral tribunal (TSE) had ruled that it was open to 
interpretation.  He seemed certain that ex-President 
Gutierrez would not be allowed to be a presidential 
candidate.  (Note:  The TSE has ruled that Gutierrez violated 
election law in 2002, stripping him of political rights for 
two years.  Gutierrez has appealed the ruling to the 
Constitutional Court, which is expected to uphold it.  End 
Note.) 
 
Roldos Leads, But Most Voters Undecided 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Despite the strength of Pachakutik in both 
provinces, our contacts concurred that  Leon Roldos currently 
leads the polls for the 2006 presidential elections in their 
province, as at the national level.  Evangelical indigenous 
have already joined Roldos in Chimborazo province.  With 
Pachakutik divided over whether to run its own candidate or 
support Correa, many other indigenous voters could also 
support Roldos.  "Citizen Participation" NGO Chimborazo 
leader Josefina Campana cautioned, however, that the majority 
of voters in the province are still undecided. 
 
Alliances Easier Said than Done 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) ID leaders in both provinces said they were 
negotiating with Roldos' Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) 
over possible joint slates of congressional candidates, with 
some difficulty.  In Cotopaxi, the RED/ID base was divided 
three ways, with realistic prospects only for two of the 
provinces four congressional seats.  Without an accord 
between at least two factions, Pachakutik would likely pick 
up an extra seat, probably at the ID's expense.  If no accord 
is reached, the ID would "go it alone," according to ID 
Cotopaxi leader Byron Burbano.  According to ID Chimborazo 
leader Dr. Diego Torres, Roldos would need 40 RED/ID deputies 
in the next Congress to govern effectively.  No official from 
any party we met with believed that Rafael Correa would be 
able to formalize an electoral alliance with Pachakutik, as 
neither Correa nor Pachakutik's candidate, Luis Macas, is 
willing to take a back seat. 
 
Ex-President Gutierrez Still Strong 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Most in both Chimborazo and Cotopaxi agreed that 
ex-president Lucio Gutierrez's popularity was still strong in 
their region, and bolstered by recent visits.  Latacunga 
mayor Maya (PRIAN) claimed that the PRIAN, PRE, and Lucio 
Gutierrez's party, PSP, would be forming an alliance, and 
that after what is expected to be a failed attempt to 
register as a presidential candidate on July 15, Gutierrez 
would quickly shift his party's support to Noboa.  The mayor 
did not believe Gutierrez comrade in arms Fausto Cobo would 
be Noboa's running mate.  He thought Gutierrez' brother 
Gilmar, or possibly Gutierrez' estranged wife, would take the 
VP slot on Noboa's ticket. 
 
Public Outreach Message 
----------------------- 
 
¶13.  (U) PolChief discussed U.S. foreign policy objectives 
and successes in Ecuador during radio and print interviews in 
Riobamba on June 20 and again in Latacunga on June 21.  Both 
PolOffs also delivered speeches at a local high school in 
Latacunga on June 21.  Press coverage was factual.  We 
remarked on the strength of the USG-GOE relationship despite 
difficulties in the commercial arena.  We reaffirmed USG 
commitment to working with Ecuador to strengthen democratic 
institutions, including assistance to hold free and fair 
elections, and security cooperation against common threats. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Divisions in Ecuador go beyond regions to include 
ethnicity, religious, and rural/urban splits, in addition to 
the multiplicity of political party interests normal to 
competitive democracy.  In the indigenous heartland, the 
cultural and political divide between indigenous provincial 
leaders and the urban mestizo elite was palpable.  With the 
indigenous forming the vast but fractured majority, Roldos, a 
mestizo, leads the early polling.  Should the 
Correa-Pachakutik alliance ever be consummated, the electoral 
balance in these provinces could shift.  The congressional 
competition is more muddled, with the mechanics of the 
Roldos-ID alliance still to be resolved.  Given the level of 
fragmentation in these two poor but relatively homogeneous 
indigenous provinces, it is no surprise that most Ecuadorians 
worry the next government will have trouble governing. 
JEWELL