VZCZCXRO0479
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHPG #0662/01 1661613
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151613Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7496
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000662 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: NEW CZECH PARLIAMENT: FRESHMEN DOMINATE MAIN 
PARTIES 
 
PRAGUE 00000662  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY. One half of the next Czech parliament, chosen 
in the June 2-3 general election, will be new members. The 
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committees lost more than half of 
their members, including some very experienced politicians. 
The parliament will have more representation by the two main 
parties, the Civic Democrats (ODS) and the Social Democrats 
(CSSD), increasing the probability of a grand coalition. The 
Greens, though the smallest parliamentary party, could still 
play a key role if a minority government is formed. Committee 
and leadership assignments are still being discussed, with 
each of the two main parties claiming a right to the 
Speaker's job. END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (SBU) Exactly 100 of the 200 members of the next Czech 
parliament will be new to their positions. Although most have 
some political experience at the municipal or regional level, 
they have not participated at the more partisan national 
level. More than two-thirds of the CSSD faction, 53 out of 
74, will be freshmen. Of the 81 incoming ODS 
parliamentarians, 41 are new. The Communists, on the other 
hand, have 26 incumbents who were re-elected. Similarly, all 
13 of the Christian Democrats were in the previous 
parliament.  This is a reflection of the proportional system 
and the fact that each party puts its rookies in the middle 
or bottom of its electoral list. Since ODS and CSSD did 
better than expected, many of their freshmen made it to 
parliament.  By the same token, since KSCM and KDU did worse 
than they had hoped, none of theirs did. 
 
¶3. (SBU A look at the committees on Foreign Affairs and 
Defense and Security give some idea of the scale of the 
turnover. Of the 19 members in the Defense and Security 
Committee, only 8 were re-elected. Three of the committee's 
deputy chairmen are gone. In the Foreign Affairs Committee, 
the Chairman, two of the Deputy Chairs, and 10 of the 19 
members will not be back. Those leaving Foreign Affairs 
include some very experienced politicians, such as Chairman 
Vladimir Lastuvka, former Foreign Minister Jan Kavan, and 
former Defense Minister Vilem Holan. The Defense and Security 
Committee will lose CSSD stalwarts Petr Ibl, Radim Turek, and 
Milos Titz, among others. Among likely members of the next 
Foreign Affairs Committee are Ondrej Liska, a 29 year-old 
advisor to the Green Party in Brussels, and Jan Hamacek, the 
28 year-old CSSD advisor on international affairs.  Hamacek 
told poloff June 13 that he thought he would be assigned to 
the Foreign Affairs Committee because few parliamentarians 
seek the assignment. He explained that it requires foreign 
language skills and offers almost no chances to direct the 
disbursement of funds. He said he had the backing of Prime 
Minister Paroubek for this assignment. His second choice was 
a spot on the Committee for EU Affairs. Hamacek also told us 
that the new MPs are paid as of June 3, can move into their 
offices on June 16, and should be sworn in on June 27, the 
first sitting of the new parliament. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The next parliament will have a higher proportion of 
members from the two main parties, ODS and CSSD.  The 
parliament elected in 2002 had slightly more than half (127 
members or 54%) of its members from CSSD and ODS.  The new 
parliament will have slightly more than two thirds (155 
members or 67%) from CSSD and ODS, giving a potential grand 
coalition 35 more seats than the 120 needed to make 
constitutional changes, such as proposed changes to the 
election law. The dominance of the two main parties also 
gives a certain mathematical inevitability to some form of 
cooperation between ODS and CSSD.  As Jan Hamacek of CSSD 
explained to poloff June 13, &Both sides are being a bit 
stubborn right now. But at the end of the day they have to 
talk to each other. Without cooperation, there is not much 
they can do.8 Hamacek said that there have been a couple of 
phone calls between Topolanek and Paroubek, the two party 
chiefs, but no formal approach to discuss cooperation has yet 
been made. 
 
5.(U) The Greens, although the smallest party in parliament 
with only six seats, could play the role of kingmaker in 
coalition talks, and later on as the conscience of the 
legislature, since they are not anchored on either side of 
the political spectrum. The new Green MPs are younger then 
the average parliamentary age of 48 and have had influential 
experiences in Europe. Most speak English and at least one 
other European language. Chairman Martin Bursik was described 
reftel (Prague 427) The other five parliamentarians are 
Katerina Jacques,  Ondrej Liska, Premysl Rabas, Olga Zubova 
and Vera Jakubkova.  Jacques, 35, has been the Director of 
the government,s Office for Human Rights and Equal 
Opportunity. After graduating from college, Jacques studied 
in Berlin, where she met her French husband, Christian 
 
PRAGUE 00000662  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Jacques. The couple later lived in Strasbourg before she 
returned to Prague. Liska, 29, has been working in Brussels 
as an advisor on Regional Development and EU Structural Funds 
for the Green Party in the European Parliament.  Liska has 
published a book on the role of Czech underground churches 
during the communist era. He was the Director of an NGO that 
promoted Czech-Austrian Dialogue, and worked for a foundation 
that put on annual seminars on global issues and human 
rights.  Rabas, 42 is a zoo director, a former president of 
the nation's union of zoos, and an expert in endangered 
species. Jakubkova, 41, is the co-founder of an NGO and the 
Director of a center that provides environmental education to 
children. Zubova, 46, is the owner of an art gallery, a 
promoter of the arts, and an activist for the preservation of 
natural and cultural sites. The Green Party members will add 
a dash of pro-environment, pro-Europe flavor to the new 
parliament and could provide a voice against the abuse of 
power, if they are not marginalized altogether. 
 
6.(U) The Greens are the only party to have achieved gender 
parity. Three of their six parliamentarians are female.  The 
Communists Party comes in second at 30%.  The two main 
parties come in at 12% for the Social Democrats (CSSD) and 
11% for the Civic Democrats (ODS). Overall, there will be 31 
women in the next parliament (15%), which is down slightly 
from the 34 in the previous parliament. This is consistent 
with the prevailing belief that politics at the national 
level is a dirty, underhanded, unethical undertaking that is 
inappropriate for women. It is also another sign of the 
disconnect between parliament and the public. 
 
¶7. (U) The vote broke down along clear geographic lines, with 
CSSD coming first in the eastern Moravian half of the country 
and ODS winning in the western Bohemian regions, with the 
exception of the Usti region, which has 15% unemployment and 
has been a traditional stronghold for left of center parties. 
 In the Usti district, PM Paroubek only narrowly defeated 
Usti mayor Petr Gandalovic (ODS). Gandalovic's strong showing 
has boosted his position in the party and could help him 
become the next Foreign Minister.) If ODS forms the next 
government with the Christian Democrats and the Greens, the 
coalition will have 63 parliamentarians from Bohemia and only 
37 from Moravia. The two parties on the left, the Social 
Democrats and the Communists, in contrast have 56 seats from 
Bohemia and 44 from Moravia.  In general, Moravia has higher 
levels of unemployment, lower levels of education and more 
Catholics. Bohemia on the other hand, has lower unemployment 
and more residents in the mold of self-reliant Protestants. A 
right-of-center government will play to the western half of 
the country and promote entrepreneurship, fees for patients 
and students. A left-of-center government would be expected 
to address the social concerns of Moravians. A grand 
coalition would have difficulty satisfying either side and 
would be more fragile as a result. 
 
8.(U) One of the main questions to be resolved before the 
anticipated first session of parliament is the Speaker's job. 
The job is powerful enough within parliament itself.  But it 
has additional appeal for the two main parties, since the 
Speaker chooses the person to form a government if the first 
two attempts fail. Topolanek said June 10 that he thought ODS 
should get the Speaker's post and that Miroslava Nemcova, 
party Deputy Chair and also Deputy Speaker in the outgoing 
parliament, would be good for the job. ODS fears that if CSSD 
gets the post, the party will exploit the Speaker's powers 
during coalition negotiations.  Jan Kasal, Deputy Chair of 
the Christian Democrats, said June 10 that his party could 
support a CSSD Speaker if CSSD could guarantee it would not 
abuse the power during talks on the new government. Zdenek 
Skromach, CSSD Deputy Chair, said his party was sticking to 
its position that it deserves to have the Speaker's job. The 
parties are not in agreement on the number of Deputy Speaker 
slots either, with some favoring five and some six. 
Originally there were six positions, but when Deputy Speaker 
Hana Marvanova (Freedom Union) left politics in September 
2003, her position was left vacant. Topolanek has said that 
KSCM should not get a Deputy Speaker post, though it has one 
now. Martin Bursik would like one slot for the Greens. CSSD 
would like to have the Speaker and one Deputy, as would ODS. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Retired Chief Justice and co-author of the Czech 
Constitution Vojtech Cepl told poloff June 12 that he 
borrowed from the German constitution when he gave the 
Speaker the power to choose the person for the third attempt 
at a coalition government. He explained that their research 
showed that by this stage some parliamentarians are ready to 
break party ranks and support a coalition led by their 
opponents. He said they even enshrined in law the right of 
 
PRAGUE 00000662  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
parliamentarians to defy their parties. Cepl said the June 10 
petition for which CSSD demanded that all 74 new MPs pledge 
not to support an ODS-led minority government was unlawful 
and undemocratic. 
 
¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: If ODS succeeds in forming a minority 
government with KDU-CSL and the Green Party, half of the 
coalition's 100 parliamentarians will be new to the national 
legislature. If a grand coalition is formed, 95 of the 155 
parliamentarians in the partnership will be new to 
parliamentary politics.  This will present great 
opportunities for Embassy training programs. It will also 
mean the new members will need some time to learn the job. 
This will give added influence to the much smaller circle of 
already influential veterans, particularly in the less sought 
after committees on foreign affairs and defense. It is still 
too soon to tell what, if any, significant changes this large 
group of newcomers will cause, or whether they will simply 
add to the uncertainty of the early stages of the 
post-election period. 
DODMAN