VZCZCXRO4026
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHPG #0636/01 1601614
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091614Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7470
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE ERIC FICHTE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: TALKS ON ODS MINORITY COALITION CONTINUE: CHANCES 
ONLY S0-S0. 
 
REF: A. PRAGUE 610 
     ¶B. PRAGUE 607 
 
PRAGUE 00000636  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
 ¶1. SUMMARY.  The Civic Democrat party (ODS), which won the 
largest number of votes in the June 2 - 3 elections, is 
pushing forward with its plan to form an ODS-led minority 
government with the Christian Democrats and the Green Party, 
although the Greens do not yet seem fully on board. 
Meanwhile, the main opposition Social Democrats are 
threatening to block ODS' attempt to form a three-party 
coalition government by preventing it from passing the vote 
of confidence it needs in Parliament.  Even if ODS succeeds, 
the result will likely be a weak government.  If ODS fails, 
President Klaus could ask Prague Mayor Pavel Bem (ODS) to 
make a second attempt at forming a government. If that fails, 
the Social Democrats could get their chance.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. As expected, the first week after the June 2-3 general 
elections, where none of the parties got enough votes to form 
a majority government and the center-right and center-left 
prospective coalitions each hold the same number of 
Parliamentary seats, did not produce any resolution to the 
uncertainty surrounding the formation of the next government. 
 The center-right coalition of Civic Democrats (ODS), 
Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and the Greens (SZ) each formed 
three-person teams to negotiate a possible minority 
government.  ODS is represented by Chairman Mirek Topolanek 
and Deputy Chairs Petr Necas and Vlastimil Tlusty.  The 
Christian Democrats are represented by Chairperson Miroslav 
Kalousek and Deputy Chairs Jan Kasal and Milan Simonovsky. 
The Green team includes Chairperson Martin Bursik and Deputy 
Chairs Dana Kuchtova and Petr Stepansky. 
 
¶3. The parties have had three-way talks, as well as 
individual sessions between potential partners.  Leaders of 
the three parties have acknowledged a desire to form a 
government, but many policy differences still have to be 
resolved. Even without knowing the policies of a potential 
ODS-led government, some members of the Green Party are 
wavering; As of June 9, only two of the 14 regional 
committees of the Green Party are supporting the coalition 
plan. The Green Party's executive team will meet again June 
10 to discuss the party's position.  The three parties are 
expected to continue meetings through the weekend and into 
the week of June 12, by which time they hope to have reached 
agreement on the main policies and personnel for the next 
government.  If successful, they will present the names to 
President Klaus, who is expected to approve, then face a 
Parliamentary vote of confidence within 30 days. 
 
¶4. ODS Party Chair Mirek Topolanek has also met with his main 
rival Prime Minister and CSSD Party Chair Jiri Paroubek. 
Both Topolanek and Paroubek are publicly stating that CSSD 
will not support an ODS-led minority government in a 
Parliamentary vote of confidence.  Given that the 
center-right coalition and the center-left coalition each 
have 100 seats in a 200-seat Chamber of Deputies (Lower House 
of Parliament), if Paroubek can hold his party together and 
bring the Communists on board as expected, it is possible 
that the ODS-led minority government would not get the simple 
majority (of those present to vote) needed to pass a vote of 
confidence.  Meanwhile, both sides are maneuvering behind-the 
scenes.  Paroubek is working on certain members of the Greens 
while Topolanek and ODS are trying to persuade a small number 
of CSSD moderates not to oppose him. 
 
¶5. Chances for Topolanek are not great, but he can succeed. 
If he does, he has the benefit of an ODS-led Senate (Upper 
House of Parliament) and an ODS President. The 81-member 
Senate is dominated by ODS with 38 members.  ODS coalition 
partners KDU-CSL has 6 Senators and the Greens have one.  By 
contrast, the Social Democrats have only 7 and the Communists 
¶2.  So while the Chamber of Deputies is evenly split 100-100, 
the partisan balance in the Senate is 45-9, with the 
remaining 27 Senators affiliated with independent clubs.  The 
Czech Constitution allows the Senate to veto or add 
amendments to bills from the lower house.  The President also 
has the authority to veto bills.  The lower house needs 101 
votes to overturn either veto.  Therefore, an ODS-led 
minority government with 100 seats is likely to be much more 
effective than a CSSD-led government with 100 seats; ODS can 
count on ODS Senators to shape legislation through amendments 
that they could not push through in the Chamber of Deputies, 
which the CSSD and Communists in the Chamber of Deputies 
would then be unable to veto. 
 
¶6.  Prime Minister Paroubek has also met with President Klaus 
this week. After the meeting, Paroubek said he told Klaus 
that CSSD should get the chance to form a government if 
 
PRAGUE 00000636  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Topolanek's efforts fail.  However, most observers believe 
that Klaus will choose Pavel Bem, ODS mayor of Prague and one 
of Klaus' strongest supporters within ODS.  Bem is expected 
to take a different path than Topolanek, offering CSSD some 
form of partnership, but on ODS terms.  The pre-nuptial 
agreement could include a promise to help re-elect President 
Klaus in 2008, agreements on pension reform, energy, or 
changes to the election law that would disadvantage smaller 
parties.  The two sides could also agree to disagree  on 
health care, labor or other issues for which the parties have 
fundamentally different views. 
 
¶7.  Parallel to the talks on the formation of a minority 
government, talks between each of the five parties in 
parliament began June 9 to choose a Speaker of the lower 
house, five Deputy Speakers, and assignments for the fourteen 
Parliamentary committees. The Speaker's post is particularly 
important because should the first two attempts to form a 
government fail (the winning party's attempt to form a 
government, then if that fails, an attempt by whomever the 
President chooses to try and form a government), then the 
Speaker will choose the person who gets to make the third and 
final attempt to form a government before early elections are 
called. CSSD has already let it be known that it feels it 
deserves, as the party that came a close second in the 
elections, to have one of its members, possibly Paroubek, as 
the Speaker. Current speaker Lubomir Zaoralek (CSSD) would 
like all the assignments completed before the first sitting 
of the parliament, which he has said would not be earlier 
than June 27.  If CSSD gets the Speaker post, and if the 
first two attempts to form a government end if failure, CSSD 
could either try to form a minority government with the 
Communists and possibly (but unlikely) with the Greens, or it 
could go back to ODS to discuss some form of power sharing, 
but this time on CSSD terms. 
 
¶8. COMMENT: ODS Chair Mirek Topolanek is vigorously pursuing 
his best option and trying to consolidate his election 
victory around a minority, reform-minded, pro-business 
government.  Meanwhile, PM Paroubek will do all he can to 
stay in the game by thwarting Topolanek's efforts.  The 
composition of Topolanek's government could be known as early 
as the week of June 12.  However, Parliament is not expected 
to hold the vote of confidence until the end of the month, if 
not later. In the meantime, President Klaus and ODS have 
called on the outgoing government not to make any major 
decisions.  President Klaus might even try to dismiss the 
Paroubek government as early as next week, once he receives 
the names in Topolanek's cabinet and approves them. 
CABANISS