VZCZCXRO7099
OO RUEHAST
DE RUEHPG #0607/01 1551659
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041659Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7440
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000607 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE, S/ES-O 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH ELECTION RESULTS: TOTAL STALEMATE 
 
REF: A. PRAGUE 591 
     ¶B. PRAGUE 579 
     ¶C. PRAGUE 549 
     ¶D. PRAGUE 535 
     ¶E. PRAGUE 516 
     ¶F. PRAGUE 482 
     ¶G. PRAGUE 427 
     ¶H. PRAGUE 284 
 
PRAGUE 00000607  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The June 2-3 Czech general elections ended 
in a dramatic stalemate, with the left and the right camp 
each receiving 100 seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies, 
and Prime Minster Paroubek threatening to file a complaint 
with the courts to have the results annulled.  An obvious 
possibility is a grand coalition of the two main parties, 
which would hold 155 seats.  However, deep personal 
animosities between the leaders of the two main parties, 
exacerbated by a harsh campaign and a bitter post-election 
speech, will make a grand coalition difficult to achieve.  A 
minority government is also possible, although hardly 
desirable, given its inherent fragility.  With a dead-even 
split between the left and the right, we expect each side to 
try and coax one, two, or a few parliamentarians to the other 
side in a desperate attempt to forge a majority coalition. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) As predicted (ref A), none of the five parties that 
crossed the 5% threshold to enter Parliament won enough votes 
to form a majority government, so the Czech Republic will 
once again be government by a coalition.  The opposition 
right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS) won a narrow victory 
over the ruling left-of-center Social Democrats (CSSD) 35.45% 
to 32.3%.  The Communists (KSCM) won 12.8%, the Christian 
Democrats (KDU-CSL) 7.2%, and the Greens (SZ) 6.3%.  The 200 
seats in the lower house of Parliament will be distributed as 
follows: ODS 81, CSSD 74, KSCM 26, KDU-CSL 13, SZ 6.  So the 
right-wing coalition (ODS, KDU-CSL, SZ) has 100 seats and the 
left-wing coalition (CSSD, KSCM) has 100 seats.  Turnout was 
unexpectedly high, averaging almost 65% nationwide, compared 
to 58% four years ago.  The country was more or less split in 
half, with CSSD winning in the Moravian (eastern) half of the 
country and ODS winning the Bohemian (western) half.  The 
only exception was the electoral district around Usti Nad 
Labem in Bohemia, where Paroubek won a close race against 
current Mayor Petr Gandalovic (ODS). 
 
¶3. (SBU) President Klaus (ODS honorary chairman) made a 
statement after the results were announced by the Czech 
Statistical Officer, saying he will meet with ODS Chair Mirek 
Topolanek on June 4 to "begin post-election talks."  Under 
normal circumstances, the President would have limited 
influence over the formation of a new government.  However, 
given Klaus' strong personality and the current stalemate, we 
expect Klaus to, once again, try and push the envelope on the 
powers and practices of the Office of the President. 
 
¶4. (U) Hours after the polls closed on June 3, Paroubek gave 
a speech acknowledging that while it was tradition to make a 
gesture of congratulations to the winning side, he would not 
do so.  Instead, he gave a biting speech full of sour grapes 
and vitriolic attacks on ODS for its history of corruption 
when previously in government (eight years ago), and for 
their dirty tricks in the recent campaign (Note: Paroubek is 
referring to testimony by the head of the State Police 
Organized Crime Unit to the Parliamentary Defense and 
Security Committee only three days before the election, in 
which he reported that the current government has ties to 
organized crime and has interfered in and restricted his 
unit's investigation into certain cases. End Note.)  The 
speech did not contain any traditional olive branch gesture. 
Instead, Paroubek ended his speech with, "at this time, ODS 
cannot form a majority government, and Topolanek and Klaus 
know it!" 
 
¶5. (SBU) Milan Ekert, a CSSD parliamentarian who did not run 
in this election, told poloff that the only way forward was 
to remove both Paroubek and Topolanek and let others in the 
two large parties negotiate a way forward.  There is no sign 
that Paroubek would consider a grand coalition.  In fact, he 
announced on June 4 that he was ready to take the party in to 
opposition, and could even see supporting a minority ODS 
government on some issues.  It is not clear, however, whether 
CSSD as a whole shares his view.  At ODS headquarters, Prague 
Major Pavel Bem, the most likely replacement for Topolanek as 
ODS Party Chair, rejected the idea of a grand coalition.  ODS 
Deputy Chair Petr Necas also reacted to Paroubek's speech, 
saying that if Paroubek was speaking on behalf of CSSD, a 
grand coalition would not be possible.  ODS has said that in 
the event of a tie, they would prefer a temporary government 
 
PRAGUE 00000607  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
of apolitical technocrats, followed by early elections. 
However, early elections are difficult under the Czech 
constitution.  Topolanek has promised to resign if he is not 
able to form the next government. 
 
¶6. (U) One element of surprise during this election was that 
the Communists fared worse than predicted, with only 12.8% of 
the vote, down roughly 6% from 2002.  The party will 
consequently lose 15 of its current 41 seats in Parliament. 
Given the poor results, Party Chair Vojtech Filip submitted 
his resignation to the party's executive board, but the board 
rejected it. On the morning of June 4, Filip conceded ODS 
victory in the elections and suggested a "coalition of 
national accord," whereby all five parties crossing the 5% 
threshold to enter Parliament would take part until early 
elections take place, which could take half a year. 
 
¶7. (U) The Christian Democrats came in fourth with 7.2%.  The 
party failed to reach the 5% threshold in five of the 14 
electoral districts, but did well enough in its strongholds 
(Zlin and Visocina) to win 12 seats, down from the current 
¶21.  Foreign Minister Cyril Svoboda, Deputy Party Chair and 
rival of Party Chair Miroslav Kalousek, said that if he had 
promised 10% as Kalousek did and failed to deliver, he would 
consider stepping down.  Kalousek accepted responsibility for 
the party's poor showing but refused to step down, saying 
that this was not the time to settle internal party issues. 
 
¶8. (U) The Greens became a parliamentary party for the first 
time, but will have only 6 seats.  Their lower-than-expected 
number of Parliamentary seats could make the untested party 
less of a concern for potential partners.  Green Party 
Chairman Martin Bursik reacted to Paroubek's biting 
post-election speech by saying that there was no way the 
party would negotiate with him.  "We won't even take their 
calls now," noted Bursik. 
 
¶9. (U) The European Democrats (SNK-ED), led by former Prague 
Mayor Jan Kasl, won 2.1%, not enough to enter Parliament. 
However, they did cross over the 1.5% threshold for receiving 
state election funding, which means they will be able to 
operate until the next elections. 
¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: The only thing that is certain is that the 
country could be facing a prolonged period of uncertainty. 
Party leaders will begin protracted closed-door negotiations 
on a way out of the impasse with few prospects of a clear 
satisfying way forward.  This is now the third election in a 
row that has not resulted in a clear mandate.  Many 
politicians are already discussing ways to change the 
electoral system to try and address such outcomes, although 
that, too, will depend on how the current impasse plays out. 
DODMAN