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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 003776 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; 
PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR 
ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Hamas Iraq Elections in Peru 
PARIS - Tuesday, June 06, 2006 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
Hamas 
Iraq 
Elections in Peru 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
Le Figaro leads with "The Wrestling Match With Hamas" and reports on 
the failed "inter-Palestinian talks" and Gaza's "preparations for a 
confrontation."  The editorial by Pierre Rousselin is entitled 
"Mahmoud Abbas's All or Nothing Call." A separate report focuses on 
President Bush's ambition for an "Arab Spring," "before the Iraqi 
offensive, and with the intention of democratizing the Middle East. 
But the 'Arab Spring' lasted for only one season." (See Part C) 
 
Le Figaro interviews Bassma Kodmani, Director of the Arab Reform 
Initiative, who advances the idea that "Islamic political parties 
are needed. A critical dialogue must be established and they must 
make commitments... There are liberals among the Islamists and if 
parties were formed, we would immediately see divisions among them: 
they are very divided... Religious parties which have not been 
included in the political process have made up this lack with a 
religious stance which is much more dangerous and full of 
intolerance..." 
 
Le Monde carries an analysis of the situation in Iraq, entitled 
"Iraq: A Government, Not A State." Patrice Claude writes: "The war, 
or rather the wars that kill on average close to a thousand Iraqi 
civilians a month look increasingly deadly." Also in Le Monde, 
Therese Delpeche of CERI pens an op-ed praising Washington for its 
overtures towards Iran. (See Part C) 
 
La Croix carries an op-ed by journalist Pierre Servent entitled 
"Afghanistan, the Metastasis of the War in Iraq" in which Servent 
writes: "Three factors have come together to explain the 
deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, while the situation in Iraq 
is far from stabilized: a transfer of know-how between Iraq and 
Afghanistan, the role of drug dealers and the growing skepticism of 
the Afghan population. One thing is certain, the Iraqi guerrilla is 
bringing its methods and its professionalism to Afghanistan." 
 
Liberation leads with a poll showing that socialist presidential 
hopeful Segolene Royal remains the preferred candidate for socialist 
sympathizers. Liberation's lead international story is devoted to 
Peru's presidential election and the victory of Alan Garcia (See 
Part C). 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
Hamas 
 
"Mahmoud Abbas's All or Nothing Call" 
Pierre Rousselin in right-of-center Le Figaro (06/06): "Abbas, 
despite his shaky position since Hamas was elected, remains the only 
element of hope for those who want to keep Gaza and the West Bank 
from slipping into a civil war. With a daring no one suspected he 
had, Mahmoud Abbas is playing an all or nothing game with Hamas. In 
the absence of an agreement, Mahmoud Abbas will submit his plan to a 
referendum. Abbas's game is clever, maybe too clever... But the game 
is worth the candle, although Abbas is very much alone. His 
initiative elicited only silence from the international community: 
when the Palestinians voted for Hamas, the West cut off their food 
supply. Now that their President is trying to find an out, everyone 
is watching his struggle with detachment, as if we could afford to 
see the Palestinian Authority fall apart... The ultimatum was set 
for last night. A referendum could be called for any moment. It will 
be the moment of truth. Abbas is playing his all: this vote is the 
only way he can regain legitimacy. Meanwhile Hamas considers a 
referendum to be illegal: the confrontation could erupt any moment. 
Abbas's initiative was the least of several evils: it will succeed 
only if international diplomacy has the courage to help him. Since 
democracy is the model being offered to the Middle East, no one can 
oppose a democratic vote." 
 
"Gaza Prepares for Confrontation" 
Patrick Saint Paul in right-of-center Le Figaro (06/06): "Analysts 
believe that the Palestinians voted for Hamas in order to put an end 
to Fatah's corruption. The referendum proposed by Abbas has every 
chance of passing, according to the polls. But his wager is very 
risky, because the Palestinians, despite the crisis, continue to 
support Hamas. In today's climate, a confrontation could erupt if 
the political situation comes to a head. Meanwhile the militia on 
both sides was getting ready last night, hours before the end of the 
ultimatum." 
 
"Faced with Authoritarian Regimes, the 'Arab Spring' Is Fading" 
Pierre Prier in right-of-center Le Figaro (06/06): "Three years 
after President Bush announced his ambition for an 'Arab Spring,' 
the dynamic is at a standstill. Iraq is running towards chaos and 
regimes are adopting harsher lines... Has the Greater Middle East 
disappeared into the Iraqi quagmire? Some want to believe it can 
still happen. Says a high-ranking Arab diplomat: 'America's pressure 
on governments is relenting because of the war in Iraq, Iran and the 
Hamas victory, but the Americans are still convinced the situation 
needs to be unraveled.' The U.S. is sending out contradictory 
messages: while the State Department asked for the liberation of 
Ayman Nour in Egypt, President Bush was welcoming Gamal Moubarak... 
America's plan has found its limitations: democratization is not 
going as it should. Wherever elections have taken place, Islamic 
movements have come out on top. To the great disappointment of the 
U.S., according to Middle East specialist Olivier Roy: 'there is no 
democracy without political legitimacy, and no political legitimacy 
without taking into account Arab nationalism and Islamism. But the 
U.S. mistrusts both.'" 
 
Iraq 
 
"Iraq: A Government, Not A State" 
Patrice Claude in left-of-center Le Monde (06/06): "Since the 
invasion of Iraq in 2003, this war has had its high and low points. 
Out of charity we will not set out the list of the dozens of times 
that the military has announced 'imminent victory' or a 'decisive 
turn' from Baghdad, Washington or London. Today the only thing that 
is certain is that some 50,000 Iraqi civilians have lost their lives 
and 28,700 are in prison, the guerilla - largely Sunni - appears to 
be at least as powerful as it was last year... In this context it is 
understandable that George Bush and Tony Blair are emitting a number 
of prudently optimistic statements as to the 'unity' and 
'stabilization' of the country promised by the Iraqi government. 
After all, the only chance that the two men have to save their 
electoral fate... rests in great part on the shoulders of the Iraqi 
PM... It took six long weeks of negotiations with the various 
political factions in Iraq to bring together a 'government of 
national unity...' Three weeks later the country is still waiting to 
find the one in a million, non-sectarian people to take on the three 
decisive ministries: defense, interior and national security. Unity? 
What unity?" 
 
Iran 
 
"Washington's Extended Hand" 
Therese Delpech, researcher at CERI in left-of-center Le Monde 
(06/06): "Washington's anathema against the countries in the 'Axis 
of Evil,' where Iran had a leading position, the speeches on 'regime 
change,' the plans for democratizing the Middle East, did not 
predispose the U.S. to do in 2006 what no other administration had 
done since 1979, regardless of the political evolutions in Iran... 
It is the State Department, and not the Pentagon that has the lead 
on the Iranian issue... With this surprise announcement, Condoleezza 
Rice has shown that she has won a long and significant battle within 
the Administration, especially with regard to Dick Cheney and his 
team... [Washington's] strategy has paid off. Even before the 
beginning of the meeting in Vienna, the U.S. got the support of 
Moscow and Beijing, but also of Mohamed el Baradei the Director 
General of the IAEA. And the results announced from Vienna on June 1 
on the agreement reached by the 5 permanent members of the UNSC were 
unhoped for. There is no doubt that this outcome could not have been 
reached without the intervention of the State Department." 
Elections in Peru 
 
"Influences" 
Antoine de Gaudemar in left-of-center Liberation (06/06): "Alan 
Garcia's resurrection is due more to fears elicited by his 'Indian' 
adversary than to his own success, despite his promises that he has 
changed. His adversary was also hampered by the support he got from 
Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. For this Peruvian election is to be placed 
within the context of the entire Latin American continent, which is 
experiencing a complete political make over. Country after country, 
the left has been gaining ground... In this regard, Chavez's 
interventionism in Peru's elections stands witness to the battle 
being waged for leadership within Latin America's left, between the 
moderates who favor social democracy and the more nationalistic who 
 aggressively oppose imperialism." STAPLETON