VZCZCXYZ0016
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #2594/01 1650309
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140309Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2408
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6962
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 8591
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 1701
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 4954
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3967
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002594 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E, EPRATT 
USAID/W FOR AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, PMORRIS, CGOTTSCHALK, 
KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, PMOHAN, DNELSON 
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, KNELSON 
USUN FOR EMALY 
ADDIS ABABA FOR JAUGSBURGER 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
NSC FOR TSHORTLEY 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID SO
 
SUBJECT:  VIOLENCE IN MOGADISHU EXACERBATES 
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOMALIA 
 
Summary 
 
¶1.  In May 2006, an ongoing low-intensity conflict 
between warlords and factions aligned with the Islamic 
courts in the Somali capital of Mogadishu escalated 
into large-scale violence throughout the city.  On June 
5, the Islamic Court Union (ICU) claimed control of 
Mogadishu, with most of the warlords reportedly fleeing 
to neighboring areas.  The security situation in 
Mogadishu remains precarious and aid agencies are 
concerned that the violence threatens to spread to 
neighboring towns.  As the situation continues to 
evolve, relief organizations are providing urgently 
needed emergency assistance to residents already 
reeling from the combined effects of drought, food 
insecurity, and political instability.  USAID/OFDA 
staff are actively engaging with UN and NGO partners to 
monitor conditions and support humanitarian efforts. 
End Summary. 
 
Background 
 
¶2.  Following the collapse of the Siad Barre government 
in 1991, a system of sharia-based Islamic courts 
emerged as the main judicial system in Mogadishu. 
Funded through fees paid by litigants and international 
Islamic charities, the Islamic courts began to offer 
other services, including education, health care, and 
law enforcement.  Bringing some stability to Mogadishu, 
the courts gained support among some local businesses 
and residents over time.  In 1999, supporters of the 
Islamic courts united to form the Islamic Court Union 
(ICU).  However, as the ICU began to assert legal 
authority, it came into conflict with powerful warlords 
who had controlled most of the city since 19991. 
 
¶3.  Armed clashes began to break out between the two 
factions and in February 2006, a group of Mogadishu 
warlords formed the Alliance for the Restoration of 
Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT), in reaction to the 
growing power of the ICU.  The ARPCT is an alliance of 
businessmen and warlords, four of whom were ministers 
in the transitional federal government (TFG) of 
Somalia.  In May, the sporadic clashes between the ICU 
and ARPCT escalated and the fighting expanded to new 
areas of the city. 
 
¶4.  On June 5, the ICU claimed control of Mogadishu, 
defeating the ARPCT, which fled the city north to 
Jowhar.  On June 6, the ICU stated that they were in 
control of areas up to 100 km from Mogadishu. 
Territory reportedly under the ICU's control includes 
the important town of Balaad.  Approximately 50 km from 
Mogadishu, Balaad is on the main access and trade route 
to Somalia's northern and central regions.  According 
to media reports, the ICU has control of much of the 
weaponry in the region, which makes a resurgence by the 
warlords difficult without external support. 
 
¶5.  As a result of the violence, OCHA reports that 
residents of Mogadishu have fled to nearly towns, 
including Jowhar and Balaad.  However, on June 7, media 
sources reported that residents of Jowhar who were 
able, were fleeing the town or arming themselves in 
anticipation of the conflict spreading to the area. 
According to the UN Department of Safety and Security, 
as of June 7, the remnants of the ARPCT's militia were 
positioned approximately 6 km outside of town off the 
main Mogadishu road while the ICU militia were reported 
to be 18 km outside of Jowhar. 
 
 
¶6.  The only other significant authority in central 
Somalia is the TFG.  Formed in Kenya in 2004, the TFG 
Parliament met in Somalia for the first time on 
February 26, and is presently based in Baidoa, 250 km 
north of Mogadishu.  With the loss of the ARPCT's 
control of Mogadishu, the four warlords who were 
ministers in the TFG were expelled from their cabinet 
posts.  Interim Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi has 
stated an interest in meeting with ICU leaders.  On 
June 12, the TFG-appointed Mayor of Mogadishu traveled 
to Nairobi to meet with a broad range of aid 
organizations and to appeal for international 
assistance in response to the situation. 
 
Impact on Humanitarian Situation 
 
¶7.  Although figures cannot be verified, the UN Office 
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) 
estimates that  clashes between the ICU and ARPCT have 
led to more than 330 deaths, 1,700 people injured, and 
18,000 people becoming internally displaced since 
January.  As the violence escalated in May and June, 
fighting expanded from the northern part of the city to 
southern and eastern areas, further limiting residents' 
options to escape hostilities. 
 
¶8.  Of particular concern are the 250,000 conflict- 
affected internally displaced persons (IDPs) 
concentrated in southern Mogadishu since the early 
1990s.  Primarily members of minority groups that 
perform menial jobs, these IDPs lack the traditional 
clan support available to other residents of the city. 
Additionally, intermittent closure of roads from 
Mogadishu to the southern regions as a result of the 
violence has disrupted trade links and the import of 
food from the Shabelle Valley into the city.  IDPs 
normally buy fruits and vegetables from the Shabelle 
Valley to sell in Mogadishu and this livelihood 
activity has been curtailed. 
 
¶9.  The USAID-supported Famine Early Warning System 
Network (FEWS NET) reports that the Balaad-Jowhar- 
Hiraan road was also closed during the fighting, 
cutting off the main route between Mogadishu and the 
central regions and delaying transport of commodities. 
In addition, there are numerous militia checkpoints 
along this road and FEWS NET reports militia groups 
looting goods transported in and out of the city.  With 
the flow of goods disrupted, cereal prices in the areas 
outside Mogadishu have reached 200 percent of the 
normal level for this time of year, according to FEWS 
NET/Somalia. 
 
¶10.  On May 29, armed militia believed to be part of 
the ARPCT took over Keysaney Hospital in northern 
Mogadishu, which is supported by the International 
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Somali Red 
Crescent Society (SRCS), causing the evacuation of 
patients and severely restricting medical services. 
Keysaney is one of only two hospitals in Mogadishu 
providing free services, and one of three hospitals 
offering surgical services for war wounded.  The 
occupation has been condemned by the UN Under Secretary 
General for Humanitarian Affairs as a violation of 
humanitarian law.  As of June 8, armed militia continue 
to occupy Keysaney, but services have resumed. 
 
¶11.  Presently, the measles vaccination campaign 
scheduled to take place in Mogadishu has been suspended 
 
until the situation is calmer.  UNICEF reports that the 
measles campaigns outside of Mogadishu are on schedule. 
In Lower Shabelle, which is hosting a number of IDPs 
from Mogadishu, the measles campaign began on May 29. 
The polio campaign in Mogadishu commenced on June 11 as 
adequate supplies are already in the city. 
 
Contingency Planning by Aid Agencies in Mogadishu 
 
¶12. Agencies working in Mogadishu include Action Contre 
la Faim (ACF), Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), ICRC, 
SRCS, numerous local NGOs, OCHA, UNICEF, and WFP. 
Presently, aid organizations in Mogadishu and 
surrounding areas have been able to maintain 
humanitarian operations despite the insecurity.  OCHA 
has convened regular meetings to coordinate response 
strategies and develop contingency plans. 
 
¶13. UN agencies are continuing current operations, 
while looking at options to strengthen and expand 
activities.  The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) is pre- 
positioning stocks to maintain health services and drug 
supplies.  USAID/OFDA funds UNICEF to provide water, 
health, and nutrition support to the most vulnerable 
Somalis, including those affected by the latest 
humanitarian crisis in Mogadishu.  The UN World Food 
Program (WFP) has made initial planning for air drops 
of food to rural areas if the situation deteriorates 
further and ground transport becomes unavailable. 
 
¶14.  The UN Logistics Cluster is reviewing alternative 
routes for access to Mogadishu in the event that ports 
are affected.  During the UN Logistics Cluster meeting 
on June 6, participants concluded that no logistical 
difficulties have been experienced so far.  On and off- 
loading of cargo and transport have continued despite 
ongoing fighting.  Almost all agencies are operating 
through contractors who negotiate for passage with the 
warring parties and alternative logistics routes are 
identified by or with contractors.  While agencies did 
not expect transport of humanitarian aid to be impeded 
directly, intensified fighting may result in temporary 
access or movement problems, increase in road blocks 
and rates paid, and hikes in fuel prices.  The fighting 
may also affect trade, resulting in price increases on 
commodities and transport. 
 
¶15.  According to USAID/OFDA-funded partner World 
Concern, fighting in Mogadishu has not had a noticeable 
impact on project activities in Middle Shabelle Region. 
However, World Concern has observed a recent influx of 
people from Mogadishu to Juba Valley, especially Jilib 
town. 
 
¶16.  Furthermore, agencies are concerned that the 
humanitarian situation in Mogadishu and neighboring 
areas already hit hard by the drought emergency, may 
deteriorate further if the violence continues or 
expands to surrounding areas.  UNICEF is particularly 
concerned about the conflict spreading to Jowhar, which 
is the main hub of UNICEF operations in the region. 
UNICEF has relocated staff from Jowhar as a security 
precaution.  As of May 31, UNICEF confirmed that 217 
families had arrived in Jowhar from Mogadishu and were 
being hosted by community members.  According to 
UNICEF, water is not a problem thus far as Jowhar town 
is well served.  However, individual households may 
face food shortages as residents try to accommodate new 
arrivals. 
 
¶17.  In Balaad, UNICEF is supporting hygiene and 
sanitation, and extension and rehabilitation of the 
water system.  In addition, HIV/AIDS awareness 
campaigns are planned.  Additional staff have deployed 
to Balaad to support cholera prevention activities and 
monitor the number of IDPs arriving from  Mogadishu. 
The  measles campaign in Balaad will start after the 
June 11 National Immunization Day. 
 
Conclusion 
 
¶18.  As the security environment in Mogadishu remains 
fluid, it is still too early to assess what additional 
humanitarian needs may emerge.  Aid organizations are 
developing contingency plans to respond as necessary. 
Updates on the security situation and the humanitarian 
impact of the fighting are highlighted and shared at 
all interagency working group and cluster meetings. 
USAID/OFDA is in daily contact with UN agencies on the 
general security and humanitarian situations in 
Mogadishu, surrounding regions, and Somalia in general. 
USAID/OFDA anticipates more substantive reports on the 
impact of this crisis to emerge as relative calm 
returns to Mogadishu.  USAID/OFDA supports ongoing 
assistance for humanitarian activities and will 
continue to monitor the evolving situation. 
BELLAMY