VZCZCXRO8223
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHSK #0669/01 1740545
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 230545Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4593
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1187
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MINSK 000669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: POLL OF BELARUSIAN ELITES SHOWS SUPPORT FOR OPPOSITION 
 
 
MINSK 00000669  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  On June 9, Oleg Manaev, head of the de- 
registered IISEPS sociological research center, presented the 
results of additional post-election polling to the Ambassador. 
Throughout May, IISEPS polled 60 respondents, described as "laders 
and experts" inside and outside Belarus' gvernment sector, on an 
array of issues ranging fom March's presidential election and 
Belarusian civil society to their attitudes toward Russia and the 
West.  According to IISEPS data, a majority of these elites voted 
for opposition candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich and regard the 
official election results as illegitimate.  In general, respondents 
tended to be wary about Belarus' relationship with Russia and 
positive regarding the United States and the European Union. 
However, the survey revealed some significant discord between those 
respondents employed in the government and non-government sectors 
with respect to opposition demonstrations and President 
Lukashenko's future.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
Election Redux 
-------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) "Did you vote in the presidential elections of March 19, 
2006? 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes, I Voted Early       5%             10%            - 
     (14-18 March) 
Yes, I Voted On          87%            80%            93% 
     March 19 
No, I Did Not Vote       8%             10%            7% 
 
¶3.  (SBU) "For whom did you vote in the presidential elections of 
March 19?" 
 
                    All       Government          Private Sector 
                    ---       ----------          -------------- 
 
Gaidukevich         2%             3%                  - 
Kozulin             7%             7%                  7% 
Lukashenko          15%            30%                 - 
Milinkevich         52%            23%                 80% 
Against All         8%             14%                 3% 
Did Not Answer      13%            20%                 7% 
Did Not Vote        3%             3%                  3% 
 
¶4.  (SBU) "Do you believe that the elections were free and fair? 
 
                    All       Government          Private Sector 
                    ---       ----------          -------------- 
 
Yes                 18%            37%                 - 
No                  80%            60%                 100% 
Did Not Answer      2%             3%                  - 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  "The U.S., European Union, European Parliament, Council 
of Europe and other influential international structures did not 
recognize the results of the presidential elections in Belarus 
because they did not correspond to OSCE standards and supported 
opposition demands for conducting new elections.  Some consider 
this decision fair but others do not.  What do you think?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Fair Decision            72%            50%            94% 
Unfair Decision          17%            30%            3% 
Did Not Answer           11%            20%            3% 
 
 
Opposition Protests 
------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  "What do you think about the mass acts of protest that 
occurred in Minsk and other cities after the recent presidential 
elections?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Approve                  63%            37%            90% 
Disapprove               23%            40%            7% 
Indifferent              12%            20%            3% 
Did Not Answer           2%             3%             - 
 
 
 
MINSK 00000669  002.2 OF 005 
 
 
Lukashenko's Future 
------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) "In your view, is Aleksandr Lukashenko who is remaining 
for his third term, the legitimate president of Belarus? 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes                      22%            37%            7% 
No                       67%            40%            93% 
Did Not Answer           11%            23%            - 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) "In your opinion, how long will Aleksandr Lukashenko 
remain president of Belarus?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Less Than a 5-Year Term  28%            10%            46% 
Through a 5-Year Term    47%            73%            20% 
More Than a 5-Year Term  10%            4%             17% 
Did Not Answer           15%            13%            17% 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  "Many people in both Belarus and Russia think that for 
both countries it would be better if they were unified and 
Aleksandr Lukashenko were to become its head of a unified 
government.  In your view, are such developments possible?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Unlikely                 37%            43%            30% 
Impossible               61%            54%            70% 
Did Not Answer           2%             3%             - 
 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) "Do you think it is possible to obtain a fair decision 
in the current conditions of the Belarusian court system?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes, It Is Possible      18%            37%            - 
No, Almost Impossible    70%            47%            93% 
Did Not Answer           12%            16%            7% 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) "Do you participate in activities of any kind of civic 
association or organization?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes                      48%            13%            83% 
No                       50%            87%            13% 
Did Not Answer           2%             -              4% 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU) "Do you belong to any kind of political party?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes                      23%            7%             40% 
No                       77%            93%            60% 
 
¶13.  (SBU) "In the course of the last year, did you learn about the 
results of independent research of public opinion in Belarus?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes                      67%            40%            93% 
No                       30%            53%            7% 
Did Not Answer           3%             7%             - 
 
¶14.  (SBU) "Recently, new radio stations from EU countries have 
started broadcasting in Russian and Belarusian into Belarus.  Do 
you listen to their broadcasts?" 
 
MINSK 00000669  003.2 OF 005 
 
 
 
                              Government 
                              ---------- 
 
                         Listen    Do Not Listen  Did Not Answer 
                         ------    -------------  -------------- 
 
European Radio for       3%             94%            3% 
Belarusians (Warsaw) 
 
"Belorusskie Khroniki"   -              97%            3% 
Radio "Nemetskaya 
Bolna (Bonn) 
 
Belarusian Program       -              97%            3% 
Radio "Poloniya" 
(Warsaw) 
 
Radio "Ratsya"           3%             94%            3% 
(Belostok) 
 
Radio "Baltyskaya        -              97%            3% 
Khvalya" (Vilnius) 
 
                              Private Sector 
                              -------------- 
 
                         Listen    Do Not Listen  Did Not Answer 
                         ------    -------------  -------------- 
 
European Radio for       10%            87%            3% 
Belarusians (Warsaw) 
 
"Belorusskie Khroniki"   20%            80%            - 
Radio "Nemetskaya 
Bolna (Bonn) 
 
Belarusian Program       7%             90%            3% 
Radio "Poloniya" 
(Warsaw) 
 
Radio "Ratsya"           3%             94%            3% 
(Belostok) 
 
Radio "Baltyskaya        7%             90%            3% 
Khvalya" (Vilnius) 
 
 
Relations with Russia 
--------------------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) "In your view, in upcoming years will Belarus and Russia 
unite into one state or not?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Will Unite               2%             3%             - 
Will Not Unite           83%            74%            93% 
Did Not Answer           15%            23%            7% 
 
 
 
¶16.  (SBU)  "At the end of March, the head of Russia's Gazprom, A. 
Miller, announced that from 2007 Belarus will pay European prices 
for gas, i.e. five times more than today.  How do you evaluate this 
demand?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Fair                     85%            77%            94% 
Unfair                   12%            20%            3% 
Did Not Answer           3%             3%             3% 
 
 
¶17.  (SBU) "What in your view should Belarus do if Russia demands 
payment of European prices for gas?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Demand from Russia       87%            80%            93% 
Higher Transit Fees for 
Military and Required 
Services That Belarus 
Provides Russia 
 
MINSK 00000669  004.2 OF 005 
 
 
 
Persuade Russia Not To   10%            13%            7% 
Raise Prices for Its 
Ally 
 
Did Not Answer           3%             7%             - 
 
 
 
¶18.  (SBU) "With which statement do you agree?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Belarus is a             60%            87%            33% 
self-sufficient 
country, and its 
economy will 
survive even if gas 
prices rise to 
European levels. 
 
If Russia raises gas     38%            13%            63% 
prices for Belarus to 
European levels, the 
Belarussian economy 
will collapse." 
 
Did Not Answer           2%             -              4% 
 
 
¶19.  (SBU) "In your view, what should the country's leadership do 
if Russia actually raises gas prices to European levels?" 
 
                                   All       Govt.     Private 
                                                       Sector 
                                   ---       ----      ------- 
 
Agree to Become a Part of Russia   12%       17%       7% 
Publicize Scandals                 12%       3%        20% 
Raise Domestic Prices              7%        -         13% 
Undertake Economic Reforms         7%        13%       3% 
Impose Sanctions against Russia    7%        3%        10% 
Make Concessions to Russia         7%        3%        10% 
Other                              8%        3%        13% 
Did Not Answer                     40%       58%       24% 
 
 
¶20.  (SBU) "Would you suggest that the declared ban on importing 
Georgian and Moldovan wines and Georgian mineral water in Russia is 
actually protecting the consumer from low-quality goods or is this 
an act of political pressure on the aforementioned countries?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Political Pressure       68%            53%            83% 
Consumer Protection      23%            40%            7% 
Did Not Answer           9%             7%             10% 
 
 
Relations with the West 
----------------------- 
 
¶21.  (SBU) "Do you think that the West's relations with Belarus are 
hostile and that Belarusian should eschew the West?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes                      18%            33%            3% 
No                       77%            60%            94% 
Did Not Answer           5%             7%             3% 
 
 
¶22.  (SBU) "The EU and US are imposing new sanctions in connection 
with the leadership of Belarus, trying to prevent entry into EU 
countries and the United States of high-ranking Belarusian 
officials under Aleksandr Lukashenko who are considered responsible 
for falsifying election results and repression against participants 
in peaceful protests.  Many think this is good, other think bad. 
What do you think?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Good                     66%            37%            94% 
 
MINSK 00000669  005.2 OF 005 
 
 
Bad                      3%             7%             - 
Indifferent              23%            43%            3% 
Did Not Answer           8%             13%            3% 
 
 
¶23.  (SBU) "In the beginning of March U.S. President George Bush in 
the framework of the `Belarus Democracy Act' sent Congress a 
special letter in which discussed how Aleksandr Lukashenko receives 
into his own personal funds profits from arms sales and suggests 
freezing his foreign bank accounts.  Many consider this is good, 
others bad.  How do you feel about George Bush's initiative?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Positive                 62%            47%            77% 
Negative                 13%            23%            3% 
Indifferent              20%            20%            20% 
Did Not Answer           5%             10%            - 
 
 
¶24.  (SBU) "The European Commission (the EU's executive organ) 
announced its intention to open official representation in Minsk. 
How do you feel about this?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Good                     66%            37%            94% 
Bad                      3%             7%             - 
Indifferent              23%            43%            3% 
Did Not Answer           8%             13%            3% 
 
 
¶25.  (SBU) "If you had the opportunity, would you like to work 
temporarily in an EU country?" 
 
                         All       Government     Private Sector 
                         ---       ----------     -------------- 
 
Yes                      57%            50%            63% 
No                       43%            50%            37% 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶26.  (SBU) COMMENT:  This latest poll by Manaev indicates more 
open, progressive thinking even among government elites.  The 
relatively large percentage of GOB officials who voted for 
opposition candidate Milinkevich and regarded as fair the 
international community's rejection of the official election 
results was surprising.  However, the significance of this poll 
should not be exaggerated, as the sample size is very small. 
 
KROL