VZCZCXRO6322
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #3638/01 1811559
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301559Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1938
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 003638 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC, EB/ESC, OES/ENV, AND OES/ETC 
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA/ARUDMAN AND ITA/ENERGY DIVISION 
TREASURY FOR IA: JASPER HOEK 
ENERGY FOR KDEUTSCH AND SLADISLAW 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET MX
SUBJECT: NEW MANZANILLO LNG PLANT: MEXICO PUTS OUT BIDS FOR 
SUPPLY AND CONSTRUCTION 
 
REF: A. 05 MEXICO 05260 
 
     ¶B. 05 MEXICO 02370 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) The GOM published June 6 a solicitation for bids to 
construct a liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage and 
re-gasification plant at Manzanillo on Mexico's west coast, 
and another solicitation to supply LNG to the plant.  Bids 
are due in by January 16, 2007.  GOM officials and experts 
identify Peru, Australia and Russia as likely sources of LNG 
for the new facility, which will supply power to two western 
Mexican cities and help diminish the national gas deficit. 
Of all other LNG projects currently under consideration, 
Chevron's Coronado plant appears closest to realization, but 
has been put on hold due to a lack of supply.  GOM officials 
expect Mexico's July 2 presidential elections may slow the 
momentum of the Manzanillo project, but that it will 
ultimately get back on track.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
MANZANILLO BIDS DUE BY JANUARY 16, 2007 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The GOM solicited bids June 6 for two projects - 
supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to a new LNG plant at 
the western port of Manzanillo, and construction of a storage 
and re-gasification plant of sufficient capacity to deliver 
0.5 bcf/day of gas.  Bids are due by January 16, 2007. 
Francisco de la Parra, Manager for Natural Gas at the Federal 
Electricity Commission (CFE), told Econoff the GOM 
anticipates signing these contracts by February/March 2007. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The delay in announcing the bids, originally due to 
be released earlier this year, was due to "bureaucratic 
uncertainty," according to Parra.  The GOM needed to obtain 
necessary authorizations from the ministries of Finance and 
Energy, and PEMEX.  Parra explained that CFE was doing its 
homework during this period, trying to identify probable 
sources of LNG for the Manzanillo plant.  CFE was anxious to 
put out the bids before the upcoming July 2 Mexican 
presidential elections, to allow the project to acquire a 
presence in the market and a "name," as Parra put it, which 
would make it easier to obtain buy-in from the next Mexican 
presidential administration. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
LNG LIKELY TO COME FROM RUSSIA, AUSTRALIA AND/OR PERU 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (U) Parra said the GOM had had some difficulty identifying 
sources of gas in the current seller's market, and had 
considered Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia and 
Qatar as potential sources.  Peru, in Parra's view, is a 
"reliable partner," and a country from which it is easier, in 
logistical terms, to transport LNG to Mexico.  He said the 
GOM is also looking at Malaysia, drawing reassurance from the 
fact that Sempra, a "reliable" American company, in Parra's 
words, has already contracted there.  Parra said that BP, 
Shell, and Chevron Texaco were interested in transporting 
Australian gas to Mexico, while Repsol had expressed interest 
in exporting Peruvian gas to Manzanillo. 
 
¶5. (U) Parra stated that CFE would like to contract with a 
company that has a solid credit rating and could guarantee 
supply of LNG for 15 years.  The GOM is particularly 
interested in integrating supply from diverse markets, such 
as Australia, Peru, and Indonesia, and it would like to see 
the company that signs the contract specify in its portfolio 
what sources it would tap.  Tanya Ortiz Mena, Project 
Director for Sempra Energy, told Econoff that of all the 
supply alternatives currently under consideration, Russia 
(Sakhalin), Australia, and Peru are the most likely choices. 
Peru, Ortiz noted, has fewer alternative destinations for its 
LNG, rendering Mexico an attractive market.  Ortiz remarked 
that Indonesian gas is already "contracted out." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
GOM PUSHING FOR DISCOUNTED RATE - CALIFORNIA INDEX 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
 
MEXICO 00003638  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (U) Parra observed that Mexico is seeking to buy LNG at a 
discounted rate of 20-30 cents cheaper than the U.S. Henry 
Hub index.  He believes sellers will be interested in 
Mexico's offer because his country offers proximity, and 
alternative destinations to U.S. terminals, which are 
currently operating at full capacity.  Ortiz thought the GOM 
would be amenable to accepting the slightly discounted 
Southern Californian "Social Border" index, which, as of June 
22, was USD 5.25/mmbtu, in contrast to Henry Hub, which stood 
at USD 5.51/mmbtu the same day. 
 
¶7. (U) Parra said the Manzanillo LNG plant is slated to 
provide energy to four western Mexican power plants which are 
due to come on line by 2012 and will supply power to the 
western cities of Manzanillo and Guadalajara.  The GOM has 
targeted the Manzanillo plant for conversion from very 
polluting fuel oil to natural gas, and for an expansion in 
its capacity.  The GOM plans a third project in the future, 
which will involve laying a 260 km pipeline, with a capacity 
of 1,000 million cubic feet per day, to transport gas from 
Manzanillo to Guadalajara.  This would link Mexico's west 
coast to the gas pipeline grid emanating from its east coast. 
 The additional gas supply would help Mexico erase some of 
its national gas deficit.  Mexico, a net exporter of gas 
before 2000, is now an importer from the United States, 
importing 600-800,000 mmbtu/day from 2000 until the present 
time.  The nation's natural gas demand grew by 8.2 percent in 
2004 and is expected to grow at an annual average of 5.2 
percent until 2014, according to a Secretariat of Energy 
document describing Mexico's natural gas market prospects 
during 2005-2014.  In absolute terms, national demand is 
expected to reach 9,493 mmcfd in 2014, from 5,722 mmcfd in 
2004, according to the same document. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
NO OTHER LNG PLANTS TO COME ON LINE ANY TIME SOON 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶8. (SBU) While Chevron-Texaco has received a permit to 
construct its LNG plant at Coronado in Baja California, the 
company has refrained from going ahead with the project due 
to delayed production of gas from its fields in Australia. 
Parra described the chances that a planned 1.3 bcf/d 
re-gasification facility project at Puerto Libertad in Sonora 
on the Gulf of California would be built as "very firm," with 
supply slated for the Arizona market, but added that the GOM 
is first waiting to see how Manzanillo comes along.  Ortiz, 
however, observed that Puerto Liberdad has no suppliers. 
Parra noted that the LNG import terminal in Topolobampo, 
Sinaloa state, is next in line after Manzanillo to be awarded 
by the GOM. Ortiz remarked, however, that this project is not 
"going anywhere," because there are no companies interested 
in pursuing it. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Ortiz observed that her company is satisfied with 
the progress it has achieved at its Ensenada plant.  In 
approaching Ensenada, her company, Sempra, built on its 
familiarity with the gas industry in Mexico, which it had 
derived from prior work on infrastructure projects (gas 
pipelines and distribution and power generation) in Baja 
California.  She reported that the federal and state 
governments in Baja were very supportive, but that the local 
government had "issues" with the fact that electricity rates 
had remained high in the region.  Ortiz observed that Sempra 
expects to start delivering 1 bcf/day of gas from January 
2008, which it will import, in LNG form, from Indonesia and 
Russia. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA