VZCZCXRO4552
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHMU #1411/01 1801111
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 291111Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6785
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 001411 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA A/S SHANNON AND WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM NU ES
SUBJECT: MONTEALEGRE WARNS A/S SHANNON, "LEWITES IS 
DANGEROUS" 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: ALN presidential candidate Eduardo 
Montealegre warned A/S Shannon, Ambassador and others at a 
June 27 breakfast that MRS candidate Herty Lewites is 
corrupt, surrounded by unreformed Sandinistas, and likely to 
siphon votes from Montealegre.  Montealegre and his advisors 
further discussed the influence of the Catholic Church in the 
elections, the role of the private sector, the youth vote, 
the ALN party structure, and the status of the FSLN and PLC. 
Montealegre made the following recommendations for further 
action by the USG: help convince the private sector to fully 
support ALN; urge the U.S. "Right" to support the ALN vs. the 
PLC; continue "get out the vote" and observation activities; 
urge Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado to withdraw their 
candidacies; and, remind people that Nicaragua depends on 
external assistance and remittances, which could be 
jeopardized by a return to caudillismo.  End Summary. 
 
HERTY IS AN "ENEMY OF DEMOCRACY" 
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¶2. (C) Ambassador invited ALN presidential candidate Eduardo 
Montealegre, vice presidential candidate Fabricio Cajina, and 
advisors Maria Eugenia Sequeira, Indalecio Rodriguez, and 
Enrique Gasteazoro to discuss the November 5 national 
elections with A/S Tom Shannon, Senior Advisor Maria Tamburri 
and Emboffs.  During the session, Montealegre first 
complained that MRS presidential candidate Herty Lewites 
primarily draws support from independent voters who would 
otherwise incline towards him, and not from FSLN candidate 
Daniel Ortega,s "hard" base of Sandinista voters.  Lewites 
will only capture 10-15 percent of the Sandinista vote in 
Montealegre,s estimation.  Montealegre commented that 
Lewites is not a "serious" candidate since he lacks a party 
structure in many areas of the country, but he nevertheless 
has "a personality that is attractive" to the 16-25 age 
group. 
 
¶3. (C) Furthermore, Lewites is "dangerous... an enemy of 
democracy" and corrupt -- the "Byron Jerez" for Daniel and 
Humberto Ortega, Montealegre called him, in reference to the 
erstwhile lackey of convicted ex-President Arnoldo Aleman who 
helped him steal millions in public funds.  Montealegre 
claimed that Lewites, closest advisors are unreformed 
Sandinistas who will impose their Marxist ideology if 
empowered.  (Comment: Although Montealegre,s personal 
dislike for Lewites is known to Emboffs, this was the 
strongest attack so far on his "Third Way" rival that we have 
heard.  Montealegre,s remarks were likely incited by A/S 
Shannon,s recent referral to both Montealegre and Lewites as 
the candidates of Nicaragua,s future.  End Comment.) 
 
VATICAN SHOULD REMIND OBANDO TO STAY OUT OF POLITICS 
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¶4. (C) A/S Shannon mentioned the role of the Catholic Church 
and Cardinal Miguel Obando y Bravo,s (the retired Archbishop 
of Managua) apparent support of the FSLN.  Montealegre 
responded that it "would not hurt" if the Vatican reminded 
Obando to "stay out of politics."  Montealegre remarked that 
Monsignor Bosco Vivas Robelo, Bishop of Leon, and Monsignor 
Juan Abelardo Mata, Bishop of Esteli, have been active on 
behalf of the PLC and FSLN.  Bishop Rene Sandigo of 
Chontales, however, is a younger priest with whom Montealegre 
has good relations.  He also mentioned pending guidance from 
the Catholic Episcopal Conference that will guide the clergy 
on their behavior during the election season. 
 
FINANCIERS MUST PAY UP BEFORE IT,S TO LATE 
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¶5. (C) Montealegre complained that many private sector 
financiers still will not fully commit to supporting the ALN. 
 He commented that many fear reprisals from the 
FSLN-controlled courts, and thus he is mulling over ways for 
contributors to make donations anonymously.  Montealegre is 
planning a July 6 visit to El Salvador to meet with President 
Saca and businessmen from that country. 
 
BASEBALL DIPLOMACY: GOING AFTER YOUTH VOTE 
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¶6. (C) Indalecio Rodriguez commented that the ALN must 
develop a strategy to attract the youth vote ) those who do 
not remember the Sandinista depredations during the 1980s. 
 
MANAGUA 00001411  002 OF 003 
 
 
Enrique Gasteazo noted that "young Nicaraguans like sports," 
especially baseball.  He asked about the possibility of 
funding to renovate baseball diamonds in rural areas.  A/S 
Shannon inquired whether a meeting between Nicaraguan 
baseball players and senior USG officials would prove 
effective.  Cajina responded that such a meeting would have a 
significant impact in rural areas. 
 
ALN HAS MACHINERY TO DEFEND THE VOTE, PLC WEAKENED 
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¶7. (C) A/S Shannon mentioned that many PLC supporters claim 
that only the PLC has the party machinery to confront the 
FSLN in November.  Gasteazo responded that the ALN will have 
100 percent coverage of the voting tables, mobilizing 15,000 
party poll watchers (fiscales).  He claimed that the ALN 
already boasts 200,000 registered affiliates with a goal of 
350,000 by the end of October.  The ALN is also working with 
the "Citizens, Crusade" NGO to provide transportation 
logistics for ALN voters on November 5, Gasteazo added.  He 
commented that most ALN leaders and supporters are Liberals 
who defected from the PLC, leaving that party eviscerated. 
 
¶8. (C) Maria Eugenia Sequeira followed that the PLC is not 
really trying to win the election, but rather simply ensure 
that it retains sufficient deputy positions to continue the 
pact with the FSLN and to protect Aleman.  Montealegre 
commented that the PLC's "hard" vote is 12-14 percent of the 
electorate, but could drop lower if Jose Rizo and Jose 
Antonio Alvarado renounce their candidacies.  Many 
Arnoldistas in the PLC are angry with Rizo,s bid for 
independence from Aleman and will not contribute to his 
campaign, he asserted.  Montealegre admitted, however, that 
many voters in rural areas will still &vote for the banner8 
of the PLC unless the ALN can obtain the resources to reach 
them. 
 
MARCHING ORDERS 
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¶9. (C) At the end of the meeting, Montealegre made the 
following recommendations for further USG action: 
 
- Help convince private sector to fully support ALN.  The ALN 
needs $10 million to run the campaign. 
 
- Urge the U.S. "Right" to support ALN vs. PLC.  There are 
still some people that are giving hope to the PLC that the 
USG will somehow eventually make amends with Aleman to avoid 
an Ortega victory. 
 
- Continue "get out the vote" and observation activities. 
 
- Urge Jose Rizo and Jose Antonio Alvarado to withdraw their 
candidacies.  Their withdrawal would convince many PLC 
supporters that the ALN is the only viable Liberal option and 
increase the chance of Liberal unity after the election. 
 
- Remind people that Nicaragua depends on external assistance 
and remittances, which could be jeopardized by a return to 
caudillismo. 
 
COMMENT: A TAD TOO UPBEAT? 
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¶10. (C) Montealegre and his advisors painted a rosy picture 
of ALN strength by rattling off numbers of affiliates and 
fiscales and proclaiming the "evisceration" of the PLC.  In 
reality, the situation is more nebulous, with prominent local 
Liberals switching back and forth between the parties and 
cannibalizing each others' support without aggressively 
pursuing independent and Sandinista voters.  The ALN leaders 
seem to have a sense of "manifest destiny" regarding their 
eventual triumph at the polls, believing that they will win 
because they deserve victory.  The party must work harder to 
secure votes, however, especially in rural areas, to ensure 
success. 
 
¶11. (U) Participants: 
 
Nicaragua: 
Eduardo Montealegre 
Fabricio Cajina 
Maria Eugenia Sequiera 
Enrique Gasteazoro 
Indalecio Rodriguez 
 
MANAGUA 00001411  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
U.S.: 
A/S Thomas Shannon 
Ambassador Paul Trivelli 
Senior Advisor Maria Tamburri 
DCM Peter Brennan 
Polcouns Victoria Alvarado 
Poloff Timothy Smith (notetaker) 
TRIVELLI