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UNCLAS KATHMANDU 001714 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER NP
SUBJECT: JANUARY POLITICAL POLL SHOWS SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) In May 2006, the Asia Foundation and a group called 
Interdisciplinary Analysts released the results of a poll, 
"Nepal Contemporary Political Situation -- II," conducted 
across Nepal in January, which showed that the overwhelming 
majority of Nepalese thought democracy was right for Nepal. 
People said the way to solve the Maoist problems was through 
talks.  Hardly anyone knew what a Constituent Assembly meant. 
 People clearly supported international assistance in 
negotiating, and monitoring, a peaceful agreement.  End 
Summary. 
 
Democracy Is Right For Nepal 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) An overwhelming majority of poll respondents (74 
percent) indicated that democracy was a suitable system for 
Nepal.  However, answers regarding the method for creating 
democracy differed.  A large number (46 percent) thought that 
an interim government should have been formed including 
Maoists in order to bring them to the bargaining table.  Only 
16 percent thought a new constitution should be formulated; 
of these, 46 percent thought the new constitution should be 
formed by a Constituent Assembly, 22 percent by a House of 
Representatives, and 10 percent by a committee nominated by 
the King.  Thirty-six percent of respondents said that 
democracy would bring about an increase in corruption. 
 
¶3. (U) Although 55 percent of those surveyed had heard of 
Constituent Assembly, only 15 percent actually knew what it 
was.  There was almost an even split of opinion about Maoist 
commitment to democracy -- nearly 40 percent thought that the 
Maoists were committed to democracy, while nearly 37 percent 
thought they were not. 
 
Solutions To Maoist Problem 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Nearly 63 percent of respondents thought the Maoist 
problem would be solved through talks.  Fifty-two percent did 
not think the government had increased security against 
Maoist attacks during the time since the King took over on 
February 1, 2005.  Lack of functioning local government 
resulting from the Maoist insurgency did not affect people 
much, with 54 percent stating that they had no problems due 
to the lack of local government.  When asked if the Maoists 
were serious about restoring peace, 23 percent said yes and 
36 percent said no. 
 
Support for International Role 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) Around 54 percent of respondents wanted a third-party 
mediator in peace talks, indicating a preference for the 
United Nations or a human rights organization.  Nearly 59 
percent wanted to bring the Maoist People's Army and the 
Royal Nepalese Army (now the Nepal Army) under international 
supervision. 
 
Report Includes Cross-Section Of Society 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) The survey was conducted January 5-25 by the Asia 
Foundation and Interdisciplinary Analysts.  The poll surveyed 
3,000 people in Nepal; 1,500 from rural areas and 1,500 from 
urban areas.  The breakdown of male and female was 
approximately 50 percent each.  Respondents represented 
districts from across the country, giving information from 
all five regions, and respondent numbers were based on 
district population.  Rural residents were more likely to 
respond "I don't know" or "I can't say" to questions than 
urban residents. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although the data is five months old, it was 
collected after the November 2005 12-point understanding 
between the Maoists and the seven-party alliance.  Nepalis' 
support for democracy likely intensified during the People's 
Movement.  Whether people's trust in the Maoists has 
increased is an open, and key, question.  The poll reflects 
the yearning of the Nepalese people for success in the 
ongoing peace process -- especially given the recent talk of 
UN monitoring of the cease-fire between the GON and the 
Maoists.  Post plans to conduct a poll between July and 
September on perceptions of the United States which will 
include some political questions as well. 
MORIARTY