This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001098 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TREASURY - PLEASE PASS TO CPLANTIER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON
SUBJECT: WHEN THE EARTHQUAKE STRIKES, WILL ISTANBUL BE 
READY? 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Istanbul lies near a fault-line and on the 
seismic path of past earthquakes.  The question is not if one 
will strike, but when.  Earthquake preparedness is thus a key 
issue for private and public sectors alike.  Discussions with 
scientific and business groups show that Istanbul,s private 
sector is unevenly prepared.  The insurance and banking 
sectors are in good standing, but industry-based operations 
require more preparation.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Experts estimate that a major earthquake on the fault 
line south of the Princess Islands (only a few dozen 
kilometers from Istanbul), or in a basin west of Istanbul 
(within 100 kilometers of the city), is likely in the next 
generation.  In either case, Istanbul will be hard hit.  As 
time goes on, however, the urgency behind preparedness 
measures following the last major earthquake ) Kocaeli in 
1999 with 17,000 fatalities ) is dwindling.  Whereas in its 
aftermath firms drafted business-continuity plans and 
simulated crisis responses, today the frequency of these 
efforts and exercises has diminished. 
 
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Securing the Refrigerator 
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¶3. (U) Private individuals are aware of the risk and are 
taking steps in their homes towards mediating a potential 
earthquake, with some spill-over effects on business 
preparations.  Marla Petal, Director of Disaster Preparedness 
Education Program at Bogazici University, described how she 
trains the trainers to prepare individual communities and 
businesses for an earthquake.  Preparedness includes 
developing an action plan, checking the earthquake-resilience 
of a building, performing structural retrofitting if 
necessary, and carrying out non-structural measures (e.g. 
securing appliances).  Through such work, Istanbul,s public 
has gained a high degree of earthquake awareness.  As 
Istanbul residents realize it is something they must contend 
with, they bring this knowledge and training to the work 
place. 
 
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Securing the Tax Office 
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¶4. (U) Prof. Gulay Barbarosoglu, Director of Kandilli 
Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute at Bogazici 
University (the former Imperial Observatory and the premier 
earthquake research center in Istanbul), expressed far more 
optimism for public sector readiness than for the private 
sector.  Following the Kocaeli earthquake, the World Bank 
provided Turkey with a package of reconstruction soft loans. 
The last $400 million of this package is being used for what 
is dubbed the Izmir Project, a large-scale initiative 
designed to ready priority public-sector buildings, such as 
hospitals, schools, and cultural-heritage sites.  The actual 
work has not yet begun, but after years of wrangling to get 
the purview of World Bank earthquake reconstruction funding 
extended from already impacted areas to potentially impacted 
areas, the bidding for projects will soon begin. 
 
¶5. (U) Concurrently, the Ministries in charge of health and 
education have initiated national earthquake-preparedness 
plans that encompass Istanbul.  Furthermore, the Governor of 
Istanbul, leading the charge for public-sector readiness 
efforts within the city, recently created a Project 
Implementation unit with a new director and staff entirely 
devoted to this objective.  The combination of the Izmir 
Project with Ministerial and Gubernatorial efforts will go a 
long way towards making public structures earthquake ready. 
 
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Securing the Conveyor Belt 
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¶6. (U) The Chamber of Industry (ISO), is best positioned to 
assess the state of earthquake readiness of Istanbul,s 
industrial base, since by law all industrial enterprises 
belong to it.  Following the last earthquake centered in 
Kocaeli, ISO carried out training and awareness programs for 
its members.  Large industrial facilities, many of which 
suffered first-hand, have taken precautionary measures. 
These include business continuity plans, back-up systems, 
strong-motion sensors, and employee location and replacement. 
 
 
¶7. (U) Nurdan Sirman, head of the Special Secretariat for 
Environmental Activities at the Chamber of Industry, 
explained how the Chamber in November 2000 published a survey 
of members entitled &Research on Preparation of Industry for 
Earthquakes and Risks Afterwards.8  The survey examines how 
businesses responded following the 1999 earthquake to improve 
their preparation for a disaster, and what measures they see 
as priorities.  Of the industrial firms surveyed, 18% said 
they had suffered damage.  More than a year after the 
earthquake, 36% said they still had no disaster preparedness 
plan, a figure which has undoubtedly fallen further since 
then.  In terms of readiness, 59% bought earthquake 
insurance, 59% improved the quantity and quality of emergency 
response equipment, 44% rearranged the layout of their 
operations for improved security, and 30% executed drills. 
Looking forward, 80% cited training as their top priority, 
closely followed by 71% who desired greater cooperation 
between emergency response teams and the private sector, and 
70% that wanted more information. 
 
¶8. (U) Significantly, the document has not been updated in 
the last 6 years.  This validates observers, fear that the 
impetus for preparedness that propelled initial changes since 
the last earthquake is fading.  Over time, interest, 
enthusiasm, and the frequency of training exercises have all 
diminished, detracting from industry readiness. 
 
¶9. (U) Some businesses, however, are successfully developing 
business continuity plans, securing mission-critical records, 
devising a disaster scenario, and mapping out the impact of 
an earthquake on suppliers and customers.  They are 
predicting the market changes that would be precipitated, 
examining how to deal with delays in inputs and payments, and 
considering how to finance recovery.  Two firms that are 
leaders in their sectors provide good illustrations.  Koc 
Holding's Migros, one of the largest retail supermarket 
chains in Turkey, established in 2001 an emergency management 
system entirely at their expense.  Migros uses it to carry 
out drills in cooperation with local municipalities and 
first-responders at different Migros locations.  Aksa, 
Turkey's biggest acrylic and textile chemical-producing 
company, was hard hit in 1999.  It has since created a 
disaster response unit with staff whose sole responsibility 
is to devise scenarios, inspect for preparedness, and carry 
out regular drills.  The shared characteristic of these 
better-prepared businesses is that they assign a budget and 
staff to undertake this work, and chart its progress through 
explicit milestones.  Both serve as models to other firms in 
their respective fields. 
 
¶10. (U) This is especially true of the services sector.  The 
leading services firms ) including major commercial banks 
and insurance firms ) have been relatively more successful 
in preparing for the inevitable earthquake.  For example, 
insurance firms have adapted to a potential flood of claims 
by changing the 'catastrophe' services they provide.  Part of 
the reason for their progress may be that the nature of their 
work requires less tangible changes to their operations, 
while the losses from ceasing operations would be 
devastating.  As a consequence, these firms are on average 
better prepared than goods-producing industries.  Upper 
management has taken ownership of earthquake readiness, and 
integrated this work into their operations. 
 
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Comment on Commercial Readiness 
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¶11. (U) Looking at the Istanbul cityscape, one would be hard 
pressed to find a single institution that has not allocated 
some resources to earthquake preparedness.  However, this 
does not mean that there has been a uniform response.  Part 
of the issue may be the diverging resources and needs of 
private-sector firms.  Services firms only require 
non-structural measures and a degree of employee awareness. 
Industrial firms have tangible infrastructure to ready and 
protect, a much messier task.  Different firms are 
progressing at different speeds, and it seems safe to predict 
that many will be caught short. 
JONES