VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1441/01 1781727
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271727Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5042
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001441 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: THE US AND THE MEXICAN ELECTIONS; WTO DOHA ROUND; MIDDLE 
EAST; VENEZUELAN OIL; EX ARGENTINE ECONOMY MINISTER LAVAGNA'S 
STATEMENTS ABOUT CHAVEZ; ARGENTINE JUDICIAL SECURITY 06/27/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's most important international stories include the main points 
of the US-Mexican bilateral agenda vis-`-vis upcoming Mexican 
presidential elections; the main issues that need to be tackled in 
the upcoming WTO Doha Round; the impact of the Israeli soldier's 
kidnapping on the Middle East peace process; facts and figures on 
Venezuelan oil production; former Argentine Economy Minister Roberto 
Lavagna's statements about Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez; and an 
editorial assessing Argentine judicial security. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "The US, the focus of the Mexican election campaign" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (06/27) "... Having a 
3,000-kilometer common border with Mexico, the US eagerly expects 
the outcome of this Sunday's presidential elections in Mexico. The 
Bush administration wants to collaborate on a solution for drug 
trafficking and criminal gangs with the new government as soon as 
possible. 
 
"The immigration reform is also a top priority on the bilateral 
agenda, with over 500,000 people entering the US through the desert 
every year. 
 
"Disagreement over NAFTA is the other focus. And its handling could 
change a lot according to who wins the presidential election." 
 
- "WTO Doha Round will move its last pieces in Geneva" 
 
Business-financial "El Cronista" (06/27) reports "The ministers of 
Commerce of the 149 WTO countries will hold a new 'crucial' Doha 
Round meeting. They will define the negotiation modalities in 
agricultural and industrial markets. According to WTO head Pascal 
Lamy, those are issues in which 'much work' still needs to be done. 
 
"The ministers will meet in Geneva... to establish a new set of 
agricultural and industrial tariffs as well as farm subsidies, the 
two thorniest issues in the multilateral debate and on which the 
other topics of negotiation depend." 
 
- "The consequences of an action" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
writes (06/27) "... Israeli Guilad Shalit, who was captured near the 
Gaza Strip, is the first Israeli soldier who has been captured by 
rebels, and, therefore, he is making the Israeli government confront 
a 'kidnapping.' Shali was captured after performing an action in 
Israel when there is no war confrontation between the two sides. 
 
"... Clearly, the soldier's murder will have a devastating impact on 
any negotiating effort... The Palestinians' apprehension of the 
soldier reveals the existence of a tunnel connecting Gaza to Israel. 
Who can say that there are not other completed or ongoing works? 
 
"Will Israeli PM Ehud Olmert feel compelled to at least partially 
recover the control of his country in Gaza through military 
intervention? From all standpoints, this could imply a significant 
retreat. 
 
"... Things are no better on the other side of the conflict. This 
further poisons Palestinian PM Mahmoud Abas' efforts to revive some 
diplomatic relations and forces him to face possible escalation. The 
situation has worsened even within Hamas - the attack suggests that 
there are groups of Hamas that do not fully respond to its political 
leadership, which holds a majority in Congress." 
 
- "Doubts about Venezuelan oil" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by contributor 
Andres Oppenheimer, who writes (06/27) "According to a US South 
Command internal report about long-term oil production in Latin 
America, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will most likely have 
problems in maintaining his country's domestic production, while 
fulfilling his promise to help provide 'energy' to his neighbors. 
 
"... Many US oil experts are skeptical about Venezuela's official 
information... 
 
"I have concluded that it is hard to know who is providing precise 
information about Venezuelan oil. However, independent oil experts 
seem to agree that Chavez will not be able to meet his ambitious 
promises of energy aid while maintaining or increasing local 
production. 
 
 
 
"If he is lucky enough, he could do one thing or the other, but it 
is unlikely he will satisfy both, particularly if oil prices start 
to stumble, which many experts predict will occur." 
 
- "'People want alternatives'" 
 
Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" reprints a Reuters 
interview with former Argentine Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna 
(06/27) "Roberto Lavagna, former economy minister and architect of 
Argentina's economic rebound, won't say he aims to run for president 
next year, but he is relishing speculation about his candidacy that 
has put the government on the defensive. 
 
"... Like political hopefuls and heavyweights all over the region, 
Lavagna made sure to define how he feels about Venezuelan President 
Hugo Chavez, the anti-US leader seeking to spread his influence t 
throughout Latin America. 
 
"He likened Chavez's influence in the region to a 'sickness.' 
 
"Lavagna said Argentina must align itself with what some have called 
the pragmatic left in South America, rather than the more radical 
Chavez or Bolivia's Evo Morales, in part to help lure greater 
foreign investment. 
 
"Lavagna said Kirchner has moved closer to Chavez and increased the 
state's role in the economy, pointing to the government's takeover 
of a water company, and its assertion of greater control over the 
transport sector rather than spending more on education and health 
and security." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Argentina, Spain and investment" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (06/27) "(Argentine) 
President Nestor Kirchner's recent official trip to Spain may be 
labeled positive, as long as the presidents of the two countries 
emphasized they both intend to make strategic progress on their 
alliance. However, Spanish investors still have some doubts..., they 
do not seem to have been adequately targeted, particularly when it 
comes to judicial security issues. 
 
"... It is not enough to point out that there is no better judicial 
security than that of a country that has had sustained economic 
growth for 44 months in a row. The criterion according to which 
capital flows where there are good business opportunities, 
regardless of the risk posed by changing game rules is limited and 
obtuse. 
 
"When businessmen ask for judicial security for their investment 
they think of something else. They need stable economic rules and 
labor regulations; they do not want authorities to interfere in the 
companies' cost structures (as has happened lately) or to order an 
overnight ban on certain exports with the excuse that local 
consumption comes first. 
 
"While these discrepancies are not solved..., prevailing 
difficulties will prevent Argentina from becoming an attractive 
country for the world and its investment." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website 
at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
GUTIERREZ