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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1323/01 1632035
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 122035Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4871
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001323 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION ZARQAWI'S DEATH; IRAN; 
MICHELLE BACHELET AND EVO MORALES; HUGO CHAVEZ; DARFUR 
06/11/06;BUENOS AIRES 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend papers lead with the implications of Al- 
Zarqawi's death; the chances for a diplomatic solution 
on Iran; the ties between the Chilean and Bolivian 
administrations; "what to do" with the Chavez 
administration; and the Darfur genocide. 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an editorial on the new 
impetus to the war in the Middle East. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Al Qaeda promises 'ferocious' retaliation" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (06/12) "Al 
Qaeda's branch in Iraq threatened to launch large- 
scale 'ferocious attacks' that will make 'the enemy 
shiver,' and it insisted it will maintain its strength 
in spite of the death of its leader Abu Mussab Al 
Zarqawi. This warning increases fears that Zarqawi's 
killing has not put an end to violence in the country. 
 
"... US General George Casey, commander in Iraq, said 
the army has taken the message 'very seriously'... and 
that it is prepared to face the eventual terrorist 
response." 
 
- "When death plants riddles" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading 
"Clarin," writes (06/10) "...  If he did not receive 
weapons or money from Washington, Al Zarqawi was in 
fact the beneficiary of a propaganda effort from the 
US. The US attempted to make him appear as a threat 
that was bigger than life itself... 
 
"Just a few months ago, newspapers like 'The 
Washington Post' and 'The Wall Street Journal' 
published official documents in which the USG pointed 
out the sense of a continued Al Zarqawi 'balloon.' 
Furthermore, they reported on the six times Washington 
had certain information about Al Zarqawi's whereabouts 
and, for unknown reasons, chose not to act." 
 
- "Zarqawi's violent demise" 
 
Gwynne Dyer, contributor to liberal, English-language 
"Buenos Aires Herald," comments (06/12) "... Like many 
religious fanatics, Zarqawi hated people of his own 
religion whom he saw as heretics, he hated them even 
more than infidels, and therefore, he had no 
compunction about blowing Shiite Arabs up in large 
numbers simply because they were Shiite. 
 
"He saw a Sunni-Shiite civil war as the best way of 
destabilizing the government that the US occupation 
was trying to install in Baghdad, as well as the best 
way to ensure the emergence of a permanent base for 
Islamist radicals in the Sunni Arab parts of the 
country, which would probably end up beyond Shiite 
control even after an eventual US withdrawal. 
 
"Zarqawi is dead, but he most likely achieved his 
purpose. Baghdad central mortuary is now receiving 
close to fifty mutilated bodies each day, almost all 
of them victims of sectarian killings, and every month 
the number rises... The situation in Iraq will 
probably get much worse, but it is already past 
saving." 
 
- "An unimportant business" 
 
Jorge Elias, international columnist of daily-of- 
record "La Nacion," writes (06/11) "... Except for 
Bush and his administration, and the American public, 
Al Zarqawi's death had a relative impact, like that of 
the capture of Saddam Hussein. It did not raise 
euphoria or compassion, but more doubts, particularly 
in response to the virtual counter-offensive amid the 
largest uncertainty - how to get out from where they 
should have never entered... 
 
"... On many occasions, Bush has suggested that it is 
preferable to fight terrorism in Baghdad than in 
Washington, DC. Based on this premise, he overhauled 
 
 
national security doctrine. To what extent did those 
remote battles... stop generating those shortfalls in 
the system for which the US has subsequently paid too 
high a price in later years? 
 
"Democracy did not flourish in Iraq as a mirror of the 
good example for the Arab world. What did flourish was 
precisely what they wanted to repel - terrorism." 
 
- "The last diplomatic way out" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed piece by 
Joshka Fischer, former German vice Foreign Minister, 
who writes (06/12) "The Iranian crisis is deepening... 
There is no reasonable doubt that Iran wants to own 
nuclear war capability. But the gist of the issue is 
its ambition to become a hegemonic Islamic and 
regional power, and in this way, become a counterpart 
of the most powerful nations. Here lies precisely its 
difference vis--vis Northern Korea, which wants to 
manufacture nuclear weapons in order to deepen its 
isolation. Iran's purpose is obtaining regional 
domination and perhaps something else. 
 
"... The Bush administration should lead the Western 
initiative in resolute and direct negotiations with 
Iran. If negotiations are successful, it will also 
have to be willing to agree upon proper guarantees. 
International credibility and legitimacy will be 
crucial in this confrontation. A cold, calculated US 
leading role will be required to achieve this purpose. 
 
"Offering a 'big business' to Iran would unite the 
international community and would present a convincing 
alternative to Iran. If Iran agrees to it, nuclear 
investigations in Natanz would be suspended during 
negotiations. If Iran rejects it or does not honor its 
commitments, it would become isolated from the world, 
and the implementation of other measures would be 
justified. Russia nor China would support the other 
members of the UN Security Council. 
 
"However, such an initiative would only be successful 
if the Bush administration leads Western countries and 
sits to negotiate with Iran... Time is running out for 
a diplomatic solution." 
 
- "Bachelet and Evo make us rethink politics" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by Manuel 
Antonio Garreton, sociologist and professor at 
Universidad de Chile, who writes (06/12) "... I am 
under the impression that in the current political 
scenario of the region there are two unusual national 
leaderships... 
 
"On the one hand, there is the Morales administration 
in Bolivia, which, regardless of its socio-economic 
origin, corresponds to the ethnical claim of a subdued 
community... On the other hand, there is the Bachelet 
administration in Chile, which strictly continues the 
three previous center-to-left democratic governments 
and, still, is the first government with an equal 
number of men and women in the Executive Branch, which 
is also led by a woman. 
 
"And it is their unusual nature which makes it hard to 
judge the performance of these governments... In the 
long run, these governments could fail... However, 
their mere existence is a big success because it 
unleashed an important cultural change. 
 
"... We all know that we are witnessing an important 
change. The fact that Chile accepts an agenda 
including the topic of Bolivian maritime sovereignty 
and that Bolivia respects the rhythm required by this 
big change in Chile, and that this is done 
contradicting the public opinion of each of the 
countries shows that perhaps what was not achieved by 
years of diplomacy and conflict between traditional 
leaders can perhaps be achieved by both a female and 
indigenous government. Perhaps all this will put an 
end to one of the main obstacles to unity in our 
region." 
 
- "What to do with Chavez" 
 
 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece 
by Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, professor of International 
Relations at Universidad de San Andres, who writes 
(06/10) "The US is more isolated than Venezuela. It is 
not getting support to engage in diplomacy of coercion 
against Venezuela. 
 
"Meanwhile, Chavez is reinforcing his regional 
intervention through active energetic diplomacy. This 
leads to an exasperating corollary - while Chavez is 
attempting to obtain more international autonomy..., 
the Bush administration is acting out of despair and 
is increasingly aggressive... 
 
"... Some basic harmony should be reached between 
Washington and Caracas. The US should not undermine 
Venezuela's instability and Venezuela should not 
promote international alliances that unleash excessive 
anxiety in the US. Caracas should also contain its 
practice of radical change within its own borders and 
commit itself to stop pressuring the rest of the 
region to accept its ideology and policies." 
 
- "The IMF criticizes the (Argentine) Government's 
anti-inflation policy" 
 
Alejandro Rebossio, economic columnist of daily-of- 
record "La Nacion's" "Economic and Business" 
supplement, writes (06/10) "The IMF is no longer a 
creditor of Argentina and, therefore, its 
recommendations have stopped being conditions for 
Argentine finance programs, as they used to be in the 
past. However, the IMF continues to form opinions 
about the country, as it does with other member 
nations. Yesterday, it criticized the Government's 
strategy to fight inflation and it asked the 
Government to cool down the economy with more 
restrictive fiscal and monetary policies. 
 
"... In a communiqu, the IMF highlighted that while 
'the Government's post-crisis policy played an 
important role in the positive results obtained during 
recent years,' 'inflation and the policies implemented 
to restrict it have created mounting tensions, which 
the Government will have to solve.'" 
 
- "More anti-genocide action is required" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by Anthony 
Lake, political analyst, University of Georgetown, and 
Francis Fukuyama, political analyst from the 
University Johns Hopkins, who write (06/12) "In spite 
of the official rhetoric and the increasing public 
support directed towards international action to put 
an end to the first genocide of the 21st century, 
Darfur has been an ignored tragedy for three years. 
 
"... The Bush administration should not limit itself 
to just urging the UN to plan a peace force, but it 
should also give the Sudan government a short period 
of time to accept such a force... Sudan said it would 
do it once a peace deal was signed, but its latest 
statements were misleading. 
 
"The US and other countries attending the UN World 
Summit last September agreed that the international 
community should protect innocent civilians whenever a 
government is unwilling to do it." 
 
- "Impetus to the war in the Middle East" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (06/12) "The 
dim peace expectations that could exist in the Middle 
East were, at least, seriously weakened by the Israeli 
attack against civilians in a Gaza beach... 
 
"... The Israeli administration formally apologized 
for the attack, but this will not neutralize the 
desire for retaliation. In fact, Hamas launched 
several missiles against Israel right away. 
 
"This means that pro-war sectors on both sides 
continue defeating the negotiation wings. This trend 
has resulted in a lack of safety, and death for the 
two countries, with the Palestinians obviously 
 
 
suffering the most." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
GUTIERREZ