VZCZCXRO1633
PP RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSL #0489/01 1671446
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161446Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9962
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000489 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON LO
SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN ATMOSPHERICS 
 
REF: A. BRATISLAVA 1010 
 
     ¶B. BRATISLAVA 476 
 
¶1. Summary. (U) Slovakia has entered the final countdown to 
elections. Polls open Saturday June 17 at 7:00 AM and close 
at 10:00 PM (1:00 AM to 4:00 PM EST). The parties are hosting 
their grand finale campaign programs, the last polls have 
been released, and the final TV debate has been held.  Given 
the large number of still-undecided voters, these last 
campaign events have the potential to be quite influential. 
We offer our impressions of some recent events. 
 
LATEST POLLS 
------------ 
¶2. (U) In the last pre-election poll by the senior polling 
agency UVVM, which sampled 1000 voters, the only consensus 
was that Smer would win the most votes in June 17, elections. 
 The difference between the second and fifth parties was a 
mere four percent.  The poll showed Free Forum just shy of 
the five percent threshold to enter Parliament, and the 
Communists just above it.  Meciar,s HZDS and Dzurinda,s 
SDKU were neck-to-neck with 12.9 and 12.7 percent, 
respectively.  Interestingly the poll showed a drop in 
Smer,s popularity since January, from 37 to 28.5 percent, 
and a four percent rise in SDKU,s popularity over the last 
six months.  KDH remained just under nine percent, preventing 
an increase for a SDKU-KDH-SMK coalition.  A poll conducted 
by the junior polling agency Dicio showed similar results to 
the UVVM poll. 
 
¶3. (U) A third poll, released today by the Polis agency and 
expected to be the last before elections, had Smer losing yet 
more support, down to 26.6 percent, while SDKU scored second 
with 13.7 percent.  The joint popularity of SDKU, KDH, and 
SMK thus reached 36.6 percent, which was the highest support 
received in the agencies, polls since mid-2003.  This poll 
found insufficient support for either the Communists or Free 
Forum to make it to Parliament. 
 
Smer: The Polls Say 32 Percent, But We'll Do Even Better! 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
¶4. (SBU) The final Smer campaign rally took place June 14 on 
the banks of the Danube River across from Bratislava. 
Turnout was huge -- Smer,s website reports that about 5,000 
people attended -- and equally large were the quantities of 
free food, beer, and visors.  Performances by local bands 
opened the festivities.  Party Chairman Robert Fico spoke for 
about ten minutes, painting a very negative picture of the 
dire economic state of Slovakia and calling on Bratislava 
residents to come to the polls.  Czech Prime Minister 
Paroubek gave a more positive speech about the success of 
social democracy in the Czech Republic and the injustices of 
the Slovak reform package.  He emphasized the strong ties 
between Slovakia and the Czech Republic.  His declaration 
that "Prime Minister Fico will be the best in the history of 
Slovakia" won wild cheers from the crowd.  All the Smer 
"Who's Who" were present at the rally, but Vice-Chair Robert 
Kalinak had the most superstar appeal.  He entered the stage 
to squealing women and lots of camera flashes.  In contrast, 
Vice-Chair Pavol Paska was greeted mostly by people who 
seemed to know him. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The crowd listening to the speeches was mostly older 
people.  (The young people were still gathered around the 
beer stands at that point.)  A concert by a 1980s rock group 
followed; however, the majority of the crowd had already 
moved away from the main stage towards the free sausages, 
candy, beer, and soda. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The political rally was attended not only by Smer 
supporters and hungry Slovaks, but also by a group of mostly 
young opponents of Fico from the organization ODM. (RefA)  A 
group of 20-something youth held up a large red banner 
reading, "Forty years was enough; we don't want Klement, 
Paroubek, Gustav, Fico," comparing former Czech Communist 
president Klement Gottwald to Paroubek, and former Slovak 
Communist president Gustav Husak to Fico.  After leaving the 
rally, we were approached by two young men who appeared to be 
no older than 20 and were headed towards the rally; they were 
handing out bumper stickers with a picture of Fico,s face 
crossed out alongside the words, "Thank you for not believing 
him," and flyers depicting the party leader as "the little 
prince." 
 
SDKU: Autographs From the Architect of the Flat Tax! 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
¶7. (SBU) SDKU held a well-organized rally on June 14 in a 
residential area about one kilometer outside the tourist 
center of Piestany.  The rally was designed as a meet-and- 
greet with approximately 15 well-known SDKU members including 
Finance Minister Miklos, Foreign Affairs Minister Kukan, and 
Justice Minister Zitnanska.  PM Dzurinda has also been 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000489  002 OF 003 
 
 
traveling the country, but did not attend the rally in 
Piestany.  Each candidate was briefly introduced on stage 
in-between songs by the popular Slovak singer from the 
1970,s and 80,s (Janko Lehoczky), but in general SDKU 
focused on personal interaction with attendees over long 
speeches.  The candidates signed picture cards; Miklos even 
had small posters (11 by 14 inches.)  Party workers handed 
out balloons, brochures and a coffee table picture book 
entitled "Slovakia in Summer."  SDKU decided to forego 
offering free goulash and beer. 
 
¶8. (SBU) All of the candidates we spoke with noted that the 
atmosphere was substantially different from 2002, when people 
openly showed their discontent and anger at Dzurinda and 
other members of his government.  There were about 300 
attendees at the rally who based on appearance were a mix of 
ages and income levels.  SDKU holds its final rally at a main 
square in Bratislava June 16.  To counter Fico,s use of 
Czech Prime Minister Paroubek and show his strong ties in the 
region, Dzurinda is planning to have several former, current 
and potentially future Prime Ministers from the region, 
including Mirek Topolanek from the Czech Republic, Scheessel 
from Austria and Sanoder from Croatia, participate in this 
final rally. 
 
KDH: Just Email Us 
------------------ 
¶9.  (SBU) KDH Chairman Pavol Hrusovsky gave Bratislava one 
last push on June 15 when he, KDH Vice Chairman Vladimir 
Palko, and MP Frantisek Miklosko campaigned on a main square. 
 Surprisingly, the three remained in the sidelines, instead 
leaving young campaign workers dressed in the party,s 
signature yellow t-shirts and caps to hand out balloons and 
campaign packets.  Many passers-by did just that: passed by 
without so much as a glance at the campaigners. However, 
Emboff saw the always earnest Miklosko -- probably the 
cleanest politician in Slovakia -- engaged in deep discussion 
with some potential voters. The largest group of people 
(about fifteen) was gathered around the free candies and 
beer. 
 
¶10.  (U) KDH,s campaign packet featured the usual goods -- a 
pre-election newsletter, a Bocian Kristian (Kristian the 
Stork, the party,s mascot) card game, and hard candies. 
However, this edition also featured a letter from Hrusovsky 
to voters, imploring them to vote as this year,s elections 
would, for the first time, take place over only one day and 
estimates of the turnout were low. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) We found Hrusovsky apparently trying to disengage 
himself from conversation with an older woman.  He introduced 
himself awkwardly, apologizing that they were getting ready 
to leave for the day.  When the woman tried to ask more 
questions, Hrusovsky encouraged her to come to another event 
or to email the party her questions -- a line which he had 
also fed another voter in campaign coverage that had aired on 
Slovak Television June 12. 
 
THE LAST DEBATE 
--------------- 
¶12. (U) The final televised pre-election debate took place 
the night of June 15.  SDKU leader Mikulas Dzurinda, Smer 
Chairman Robert Fico and HZDS head Vladimir Meciar 
participated. The personal animosity between Fico and 
Dzurinda was clearly visible, while Meciar - who often seemed 
to be left on the side of heated exchanges - struggled to 
remain both neutral and relevant. 
 
¶13. (U) The moderator opened by asking each candidate how 
much their parties pre-election campaigns had cost and where 
the money had come from. All three candidates appeared 
uncomfortable with the question but none more so than Fico, 
who sought to avoid naming the specific banks from which Smer 
had taken loans. Dzurinda and Fico claimed to have spent in 
the neighborhood of forty million Slovak crowns on their 
campaigns but Fico challenged Dzurinda,s figures and said 
that based on what he had seen the SDKU campaign must have 
cost six or seven times more.  Fico charged that the extra 
money for the SDKU campaign came from funds stolen from 
public funds allocated to various SDKU-controlled ministries. 
Despite the fact that none of the candidates wanted to 
discuss their financing, the discussion and ensuing 
accusations lasted nearly 15 minutes. 
 
¶14. (U) Fico accused Dzurinda of being dependent on advice 
from the U.S. Embassy where he "runs to get instructions." 
Fico also attacked Dzurinda for wanting to introduce 
university fees. Dzurinda responded by asking Fico why he 
takes his own son to a private school everyday and pays for 
his tuition. "If you are so concerned about getting free 
education to the poorest, why don't you focus on improving 
the standard of education and send you sonr to a regular 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000489  003 OF 003 
 
 
school. Instead you drive him in an expensive car to a 
private school; this is not a very leftist approach." 
 
¶15. (SBU) Fico seemed humorless but best prepared to attack 
with a flurry of details. Dzurinda was the most composed. 
Meciar was clearly the man in the middle with the debate 
seemingly taking place around him. He turned red only once: 
when the moderator quoted Dzurinda's statement to a Czech 
newspaper that Fico is a Bolshevik and Meciar a murderer. At 
the end of the debate Fico hinted that a Smer-KDH-SNS 
coalition would please him. 
 
FICKLE YOUTH 
---------------------- 
¶16. (U) Poloff watched the last debate of the election 
campaign with five university-educated professionals between 
25 and 30 years of age. Four of the five voted for left-wing 
parties in 1998 and 2002 and, as of two weeks ago, were 
inclined to support Smer in this election. As of last night, 
however, all four had grudgingly decided to vote for SDKU as 
the least-bad option. (Comment. One SDKU contact had actually 
admitted to us recently that he was trying to sway some young 
undecided voters to choose SDKU "as the least of evils". End 
comment.) All five indicated that they absolutely do not like 
or trust PM Dzurinda, but that of the three men on stage he 
was the least bad. The principle factor that influenced the 
left-oriented voters to abandon Smer were recent press 
reports that Fico is considering a coalition with SNS and 
HZDS. (RefB) 
 
¶17. Another young (28) friend of Poloff, an ethnic Slovak 
from the predominantly Hungarian city of Nove Zamky, has 
indicated she will vote for SMK in this election after 
supporting SNS in the past two elections. After seeing SMK in 
government for the past eight years, she no longer fears they 
will try to separate her district from Slovakia and she sees 
the practical advantages that having SMK in government brings 
to her region. Her parents and her brother still plan to vote 
for SNS. 
 
VALLEE