VZCZCXRO5849
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #0940/01 1631426
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121426Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8797
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000940 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN MINORITIES LAW TO BE CAMPAIGN ISSUE 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000940  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 521 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Montenegro's new Law on Minorities, 
passed in the heat of the referendum campaign on May 10, 
will be an issue in the run-up to the fall parliamentary 
campaign.  The law expanded the number of minority MP set- 
aside seats from four (of 75) to nine (of 80), to add 
Bosniak, Muslim, and Croat seats to the present Albanian 
seats.  The civic opposition Socialist People's Party - SNP 
- has publicly and privately objected to the set-aside 
seats (in large part due to the minorities' support of the 
GOM in the referendum).  The Council of Europe has decided 
not to take a public position on the law.  End summary. 
 
New Law on Minorities, New Set-Aside Minority Seats 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (U) Montenegro passed a Law on Minority Rights and 
Freedoms (Law on Minorities) on May 10, to solidify 
minority support for independence in the May 21 referendum 
(ref).  Article 23 of the new law has attracted the most 
attention, in creating new set-aside seats for ethnic 
minority parties in the Republic Parliament. In 1998, four 
set-aside seats in the 75-seat parliament were created for 
the Albanian minority (five percent of the republic 
population).  Currently, two of the four seats are held by 
PM Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and 
two by ethnic Albanian parties.  The new law, according to 
Minister for National and Ethnic Groups Rights Protection 
Gzim Hajdinaga, will add five seats: three for Bosniaks, 
one for Muslims, and one for Croats.  (In 1998 these groups 
decided not to request reserved seats.)  Hajdinaga 
explained that Roma are excluded as only 0.45 percent of 
the Montenegrin population reports itself as Roma, and the 
law sets aside seats only for minorities which comprise at 
least 1.0 percent of the population.  Note: Most estimates 
suggest Roma comprise around 2 percent of the population, 
but most reported themselves as "Montenegrin" in 2003, as 
there were no advantages in not doing so.  End note. The 
contested Article 23 will have to be reflected in the 
electoral law to be adopted this summer, before the fall 
parliamentary elections. 
 
Ethnic Composition of Montenegro - No Majority 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3. (U) Inhabitants of Montenegro were asked to self-report 
their nationality/ethnicity in the 2003 census.  The result 
was as follows: 
 
Montenegrins:        267,669 (43.16 percent) 
Serbs:               198,414 (31.99 percent) 
Bosniaks:             48,184 ( 7.77 percent) 
Albanians:            31,163 ( 5.03 percent) 
Slavic Muslims:       24,625 ( 3.97 percent) 
Croats:                6,811 ( 1.1  percent) 
Romas and Egyptians:   2,826 ( 0.46 percent) 
 
Opposition Opposes Minority Law 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the civic opposition 
Socialist People's Party - SNP -- has said publicly that he 
opposes the new Law on Minorities.  The SNP supported, and 
still supports, the 1998 compromise that created the four 
Albanian set-aside seats.  The SNP told local media June 7 
that it supports the idea that minorities living in 
Montenegro have their representatives in Parliament, but 
opposes the idea that minorities gain their mandates 
according to the Law on Minorities Rights and Freedoms 
adopted on May 10. The SNP instead advocates the creation 
of special constituencies for minorities, like the current 
gerrymandered constituencies in Tuzi and Ulcinj for the 
Albanian minority. SNP believes that all parties should be 
entitled to compete for mandates in those constituencies, 
as is the case with the current Albanian set-asides. SNP 
further observed that the Law on Minorities appears to 
allow for double suffrage by minority voters - once for the 
set-aside seats, once for the at-large seats. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Bulatovic asked to see Consulate "urgently" on 
June 1, to argue his objections to the Law on Minorities. 
His argument tracked the SNP's later public statement.  In 
private, however, Bulatovic added that he saw the "bloc" of 
nine minority seats created by the law as an insurmountable 
obstacle for the opposition to PM Djukanovic, and thus a 
guarantee for the DPS's hold on power.  Stating that he 
would leave politics if the law remained in force as is, 
 
BELGRADE 00000940  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Bulatovic asked for a USG statement in opposition to the 
law.  Bulatovic was informed that the USG considered the 
law an internal Montenegrin matter, and therefore had no 
official stance.  Conversely, Djukanovic has also sought, 
through intermediaries, to enlist USG support for the law; 
Minister Hajdinaga was informed on June 6, during a meeting 
on this subject that he requested, that the USG would 
prefer not to become identified with one side or the other 
on this contentious campaign issue. 
 
Council of Europe - No Wish to Challenge 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In late March, Council of Europe head of office 
Vladimir Ristovski told Consulate that the CoE disapproved 
of the law's set-aside provisions, but would not move to 
block its passage (ref).  Ristovski confirmed to Principal 
Officer on June 3 that the CoE would not seek to have the 
law revised. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) While set-aside seats for minorities are not 
uncommon in Europe, the present law should probably be 
reviewed by international organizations, such as the COE 
and/or OSCE. Given solid minority support for Djukanovic's 
pro-independence stance at the referendum, Bulatovic's 
point that the law will create a solid parliamentary 
majority for the DPS has some merit -- at least in the 
short term.  However, this does not necessarily mean that 
this bloc of seats will be pro-government in perpetuity, 
now that the independence issue is behind us.  Indeed, some 
minority leaders have already publicly expressed deep 
dissatisfaction with Djukanovic's policies.  Also, 
depending on how the electoral law incorporates the 
Minorities Law, minorities will either be overrepresented 
(as SNP claims), or underrepresented (as asserted by the 
Bosniak Party- ref).  End comment. 
 
Text of Article 23, unofficial translation 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) Begin text. 
 
Electoral legislation, through application of the principle 
of affirmative action, shall prescribe additional number of 
mandates for the representatives of persons belonging to 
minorities. 
 
Minorities who, in accordance with the last census, make 
between 1 percent and 5 percent of the total population 
shall be represented with one mandate in the Assembly of 
the Republic of Montenegro, through a representative 
elected from the minority candidates list. 
 
Minorities who, in accordance with the last census, exceed 
5 percent of the total population shall have three 
guaranteed mandates in the Assembly of the Republic of 
Montenegro, through representatives elected from the 
minority candidates lists, provided that linguistic and 
ethnic specificities, as well as acquired electoral  rights 
of Albanians in the Republic are taken into account. 
 
End text. 
 
POLT