VZCZCXRO0404
PP RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB
DE RUEHAK #3307/01 1580758
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070758Z JUN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6319
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 5437
RUEHLN/AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG 0049
RUEHVK/AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK 0091
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 1572
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1481
RUEHAST/USOFFICE ASTANA 0101
RUEHZN/EST COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 003307 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HHS FOR WSTEIGER/PBUDASHEWITZ 
USAID FOR BLANCHET, TROSTLE AND CARROLL 
FAS FOR ITP/MACKE/THOMAS/LEIER, CMP/MOLSTAD, FAA/DEVER 
FAS PASS FSIS AND APHIS 
VIENNA PASS APHIS 
BRUSSELS PASS APHIS/FERNANDEZ 
GENEVA PASS HEALTH ATTACHE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: EAGR EAID TBIO AMED CASC KFLU SENV TU
SUBJECT:  TURKEY AVIAN INFLUENZA: POULTRY SECTOR 
RECOVERING 
 
Ref:  (A) Ankara 1524 and previous, (B) Ankara 2708, 
(C) State 67574 
 
ANKARA 00003307  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (U)  Summary.  There have been no new AI cases in 
poultry or on wild birds in Turkey since March 31, 2006. 
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the AI outbreak 
was completely extinguished by April 24, 2006.  The 
Protection and Control General Directorate issued the 
last follow up report to the OIE and EU on May 17, 2006. 
Screening of village poultry has been terminated; 
however, screening of industrial operations continues. 
The Ministry of Health confirmed no human cases since the 
January outbreak.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
General Avian Influenza Situation in Turkey 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  The last reported case of Avian Influenza (AI) 
in the poultry population was in Yozgat province on March 
31, 2006.  As of May 16, 2006, there have not been any 
new AI cases reported.  The Ministry of Agriculture and 
Rural Affairs (MARA) finished culling in designated areas 
throughout the country on April 24 and, as a result, all 
quarantines and surveillance were lifted as of May 16, 
¶2006.  According to Turkish regulations, three weeks 
after the last case is extinguished, the Ministry of 
Agriculture can remove all quarantines and related 
restrictions, once all culling has been completed. 
However, restrictions related to banning of live bird 
markets, selling of live birds, and hunting of wild birds 
will continue indefinitely.  Field surveillance is also 
continuing, with random blood samples taken for at least 
three additional months and monitoring of the results. 
MARA's General Directorate for Protection and Control 
issued its latest report to the OIE and EU with this 
information on May 17, 2006. 
 
¶3.  (U)  A total of 163 samples, 136 samples from 
backyard poultry and 27 samples from wild birds, were 
submitted to the regional laboratories for testing 
between April 12 and May 12.  A total of 134 (118 poultry 
and 16 wild birds) tests were negative.  Out of the same 
total, 7 (1 poultry and 6 wild bird) samples could not be 
processed.  Seventeen poultry and 5 wild bird samples are 
still under investigation.  Screening of poultry in 
villages has ceased.  However, the periodic screening of 
industrial poultry operations still continues.  This 
testing will continue indefinitely since Turkey is on 
bird migratory routes. 
 
¶4.  (U)  The Ministry of Environment and Forestry and the 
Wildlife Society jointly carried out surveillance on 
migrating birds during the outbreak with support from the 
Dutch Embassy.  Suspicious cases were reported to the 
Ministry of Agriculture.  The Ministry of Environment and 
Forestry has been working on a project to observe bird 
migrating routes and develop a National Bird Observation 
System.  They will complete this project and present to 
the State Planning Organization for its finding during 
the next couple of months.  They hope the program will be 
funded in the 2007 budget. 
 
-------------- 
Broiler Sector 
-------------- 
 
¶5.  (U)  Turkey's broiler sector has been hard hit by AI 
since last October.  Demand for poultry meat declined 
nearly 90 percent shortly after the December outbreak 
and, as a result, stocks increased to 100,000 MT, which 
is quite unusual for this fresh/chilled meat market. 
Prices were as low as YTL 1.50 per kilogram for whole 
 
ANKARA 00003307  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
birds at the height of the crisis.  Demand started to 
rebound in March and production started to increase.  The 
price of fresh meat increased to YTL 2.60 per kilogram of 
whole bird.  The cost of producing one kilogram of whole 
chicken is about YTL 2.00.  Thus, producers started to 
make some profits.  This encouraged producers to increase 
their production and, as a result, prices again decreased 
because of excess production.   Current prices are around 
YTL 1.60 per kilogram for whole birds.  Broiler stocks 
have not been totally eliminated and are currently 
estimated at around 70,000 MT with stock prices at about 
YTL 1.50 per kilogram. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Turkey produced about 940,000 MT of broilers in 
2004 and 960,000 MT in 2005.  Some sector representatives 
are projecting and hoping that broiler production in 2006 
will be at similar levels to the year before or even 
slightly better.  On the other hand, others are not so 
optimistic believing that broiler production in 2006 will 
be about ten percent lower than the previous year. 
Turkey is estimated to produce about 50,000 MT of turkeys 
and 55,000 MT of spent hens and other poultry. 
 
------------ 
Layer Sector 
------------ 
 
¶7.  (U)  Turkey had about 43 million layers (including 
about 14 million layer chicks) in 2005.  The GOT issued a 
decree on January 24, 2006 to cull all spent hens.  A 
total of 13.5 million industrial birds were culled in one 
month.  The total number of industrial layers is 
currently estimated to be around 34 million (including 8 
million layer chicks).  Since a total of 13.5 million 
layers were culled earlier, this number assumes that 4.5 
million of layers were added to the total stocks after 
the outbreak (43 minus 13.5 plus 4.5 equals 34).  The GOT 
also culled an additional 2.5 million birds in areas 
where quarantine and surveillance programs were 
implemented.  It is estimated that there are a total of 
20 million birds owned by villagers in Turkey.  Villagers 
outside of quarantine and surveillance zones continue to 
keep their birds, but they were asked to keep them in the 
cages.  Those villagers whose birds were culled are 
mostly buying meat and eggs from the markets.  This 
naturally caused a reduction in their consumption since 
some of these villagers do not have easy access to the 
markets and most of them do not have the financial 
ability to buy as much as they consumed before. 
 
¶8.  (U)  In March and April, the GOT paid nearly a total 
of YTL 15 million (YTL 1.10 for each culled bird) or 
about USD 1.1 million for all culled industrial layers. 
The GOT also announced a support program on March 30, 
2006 for slaughtering spent hens, which will be in effect 
for three months.  The GOT will provide YTL 0.30 per bird 
slaughtered for producers and YTL 0.10 per bird for 
slaughterhouses.  It is estimated that about four million 
spent hens will be slaughtered in a three-month period. 
Total payments are expected to be about YTL 1.6 million 
(or amount USD 1.1 million) once the program is completed 
in July. 
 
¶9.  (U)  The Turkish egg sector suffered from the AI 
crises longer than the broiler sector since large stocks 
cannot be maintained.  The sector had stocks of about 500 
million eggs during the crisis.  Egg prices decreased 
from YTL 0.07 per egg to YTL 0.03 at the peak of the 
crisis (all prices are those received by the producers). 
Producers expected to lose YTL 1 million daily.  Egg 
prices increased gradually to about YTL 0.06 per egg 
until mid April.  Producers continued to lose money since 
the cost of an egg was about YTL 0.07.  After April 15, 
 
ANKARA 00003307  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
2006 (after all of the stocks were eliminated) egg prices 
bounced back at around YTL 0.80 and producers started to 
make some profit.  Egg prices, however, decreased 
slightly since then and are currently fluctuating around 
YTL 0.07 and 0.075.  Current domestic demand for eggs is 
estimated on the average at around 140 million a week and 
7.3 billion a year compared to 160 millin a week and 8.3 
billion a year a year ago. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
The Impact of AI on Red Meat and Fish Sectors 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U)  The AI outbreaks occurred in the middle of the 
fishing season.  Turkish fishermen caught more than 
normal levels of fish especially bonitoes and anchovies 
last winter.  This has reduced the problems related to 
the protein availability for the consumers.  Fish 
consumption went up, and as a result, fish prices were 
doubled.  However, fish was still the cheapest source of 
protein for most of the population since anchovies, 
bonitos, and similar fish are usually inexpensive 
compared to red meat during the winter months in Turkey. 
 
¶12. (U) Red meat prices varied a lot during the crisis. 
Red meat prices have been very high in Turkey in recent 
years.  The bovine meat prices went up as high as YTL 
9.60 per kilogram of carcass weight during earlier stages 
of the crisis, but dropped to the current levels of 
around YTL 7.80 - 8.20 per kilogram of carcass weight, 
which was about the same price prior to the outbreak. 
Red meat prices have been rather stable since last April. 
 
------------------------ 
International Assistance 
------------------------ 
 
¶13. (U) The World Bank, EU, and FAO prepared assistance 
programs related to the AI crisis in Turkey.  The World 
Bank coordinated an international assistance package that 
included a $34.4 million World Bank loan to minimize the 
threat posed to humans by AI in Turkey (Ref B).  The loan 
will support prevention, preparedness and planning as 
well as response and containment of the disease.  This is 
World Bank's third AI operation in the Europe and Central 
Asia region.  The loan has a 15-year maturity and a 5- 
year grace period.  The loan will help finance activities 
under three components: animal health, human health and 
public awareness.  USAID is contributing a total of USD 1 
million to the package.  Of this total, USD 750,000 will 
be spent on restructuring the backyard poultry sector and 
USD 250,000 will be spent on public awareness and 
training for those in the backyard poultry sector. 
 
¶14.  (U)  The European Union also provided a euro 10.4 
million support program to strengthen laboratory 
infrastructure and disease control.  Of this, euro 6 
million will be spent on supply materials for the 
Ministry of Health, euro 2.2 million will be spent on 
supply materials for the Ministry of Agriculture (on 
buying laboratory equipments, test kits, etc.) and euro 
2.2 million will be spent on technical assistance for 
both Ministries.  Of this total, the EU is providing a 
grant for euro 8.35 million and urkey is providing euro 
2.05 million (25 percent of the investment sections). 
FAO also has a technical assistance project.  One 
international expert (epidemiologist from Northern 
Ireland, UK) and one local expert (veterinarian from 
Ankara) were hired for six months (March - September, 
2006) for emergency assistance for the control and 
prevention of AI.  The allocated budget for the project 
is USD 93,500. 
 
 
ANKARA 00003307  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶15.  Dr Yildirim Bayazit from the Ministry of Health 
confirmed to us that there had been no human cases of AI 
since the January outbreak.  He said a total of 1000 
suspected cases from that time had been tested.  He said 
that screening and monitoring continued.  (Note: Turkey 
suffered a total of 12 WHO confirmed human cases and four 
deaths in January.  End Note.) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Comment:  One of the positive results from the 
AI outbreaks is that the poultry industry was forced to 
become more organized, more united and more proactive in 
promoting its sector, especially the health benefits of 
poultry.  Producers with well-known brand names that 
increased their investments in advertising campaigns and 
marketing strategies benefited more than others.  Banvit, 
for instance, held 4.4 percent of the market before the 
AI crisis.  After a heavy marketing campaign in February 
2006, Banvit's market share increased to 15.7 percent. 
In total, all brand names in the poultry industry gained 
40 percent of the market share after the crisis, compared 
to 17 percent in October 2005.  As a result of focused 
advertising, consumers began to trust more in these 
established facilities and switched to purchasing 
properly packaged poultry by well-known brands. 
 
¶17. (SBU) Comment: Turkey should be able to export 
poultry to the EU at any time since the EU has approved 
Turkey's residual control program.  However, due to the 
AI outbreaks, the Turkish poultry will have to wait six 
months after the last outbreak before it is able to 
resume exporting.  Additionally, the poultry industry 
representatives doubt that the EU will actually permit 
poultry exports to resume until Turkey's bans on EU live 
animal and meat are also lifted. 
WILSON