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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 002964 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/30/06 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) FNN poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
race, Yasukuni homage, education law, constitutional revision 
 
(2) Poll: 72% want Abe, Fukuda to run in post-Koizumi race 
 
(3) What underlies relations between Abe and Fukuda as rivals for 
LDP presidency (Part 4) - Diplomacy toward US, China: Playing up 
personal connections with current and former ambassadors 
 
(4) Hurdles still in store for Japan's early troop pullout from 
Iraq 
 
(5) Taro Kono issues manifesto for 2006 LDP presidential election 
that calls for consumption tax revenues to cover basic pensions, 
establishment of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade 
 
(6) METI new energy strategy presents numerical targets in five 
sections, including cut in degree of dependence on oil to 40% 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) FNN poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
race, Yasukuni homage, education law, constitutional revision 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
May 30, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
Yes                                            42.6       (48.8) 
No                                             40.7       (35.5) 
Don't know (D/K) + Can't say which (CSW)       16.8       (15.8) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)                 35.8       (42.1) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)    21.9       (17.4) 
New Komeito (NK)                                3.6        (3.5) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)                  2.9        (2.9) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)       1.5        (1.9) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)      0.1        (0.2) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)         0.1        (0.1) 
New Party Daichi (NPD or Shinto Daichi)         0.1          (0) 
Other answers (O/A)                             0.6        (1.1) 
None                                           31.6       (27.7) 
D/K + Can't say (CS)                            2.1        (3.2) 
 
Q: Who do you think is most appropriate for post-Koizumi 
leadership? 
 
Taro Aso                   4.0        (5.6) 
Shinzo Abe                41.7       (47.0) 
Sadakazu Tanigaki          1.6        (3.3) 
Yasuo Fukuda              23.2       (18.3) 
Taro Kono                  1.4        (---) 
Taku Yamasaki              0.8        (1.2) 
O/A                       15.5        (---) 
D/K + inappropriate       12.0       (13.9) 
 
TOKYO 00002964  002 OF 009 
 
 
 
Q: Who do you think is most appropriate for prime minister among 
Abe and Fukuda, reportedly likely post-Koizumi candidates, and 
DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa? 
 
Abe                       40.8       (48.7) 
Fukuda                    20.8       (19.4) 
Ozawa                     21.7       (14.1) 
D/K + inappropriate       16.8       (18.0) 
 
Q: Do you think the outcome of the post-Koizumi race is up to 
each LDP faction's move? 
 
Yes           50.1 
No            32.7 
D/K+CSW       17.3 
 
Q: Abe and Fukuda belong to the Mori faction in the LDP. Would 
you like both Abe and Fukuda to run in the LDP presidential 
election? 
 
Yes           72.0 
No            13.8 
D/K+CSW       14.3 
 
Q: What do you think will be the primary point at issue in the 
post-Koizumi race? 
 
Foreign policy, national security            21.0 
Economic disparities                         16.3 
Economic policy                              13.2 
Administrative, fiscal reforms                7.7 
Pension, other social security systems       23.7 
Education, low birthrate                      8.6 
O/A                                           5.4 
D/K+CS                                        4.2 
 
Q: Do you think the next prime minister should pay homage at 
Yasukuni Shrine? 
 
Yes           29.5       (38.0) 
No            50.6       (43.6) 
D/K+CSW       20.0       (18.5) 
 
Q: Do you think Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi should pay 
homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15 this year? 
 
Yes           32.1 
No            51.7 
D/K+CSW       16.2 
 
Q: Do you think DPJ President Ozawa has changed? 
 
Yes           34.8 
No            43.8 
D/K+CSW       21.5 
 
Q: Do you think the Diet should pass a government-introduced bill 
at its current session to amend the Fundamentals of Education 
Law? 
 
Yes           32.2 
No            45.5 
 
TOKYO 00002964  003 OF 009 
 
 
D/K+CSW       22.4 
 
Q: A government-introduced bill to amend the Organized Crime 
Punishment Law incorporates charges for conspiracy. Do you 
support this legislation? 
 
Yes           44.2 
No            35.5 
D/K+CSW       20.4 
 
Q: Do you think the Diet should pass national referendum 
legislation at the current session for amendments to the 
Constitution of Japan? 
 
Yes           37.1       (38.1) 
No            39.8       (36.5) 
D/K+CSW       23.2       (25.5) 
 
(Note) Parentheses denote the results of the last survey 
conducted in April. 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted by Fuji News 
Network (FNN) on May 27-28 over the telephone on a computer-aided 
random digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey, a total of 
2,000 persons were sampled from among males and females, aged 20 
and over, across the nation. 
 
(2) Poll: 72% want Abe, Fukuda to run in post-Koizumi race 
 
SANKEI (Page 2) (Abridged) 
May 30, 2006 
 
An overwhelming majority or 72% of the Japanese public would like 
both Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, 51, and one of his 
predecessors in the CCS post, Yasuo Fukuda, 69, to run in the 
ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election set for 
September this year to pick Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's 
successor, according to findings from a public opinion survey 
conducted by Fuji News Network (FNN) on May 27-28. Abe stood at 
41.7% support, with Fukuda at 23.2%. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister 
Taro Aso, 65, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, 61, and all 
other post-Koizumi candidates had low public support. The post- 
Koizumi race is likely to be a one-on-one contest between Abe and 
Fukuda. 
 
In the survey, respondents were asked to select the person who 
they thought would be appropriate for prime minister after 
Koizumi. Abe was down 5.3 percentage points from the last survey 
conducted in April but remained at the top. Fukuda was up 4.9 
points, narrowing his margin with Abe to 18.5 points. Among other 
post-Koizumi candidates, Aso marked 4%, with Tanigaki standing at 
1.6%, Senior Vice Justice Minister Taro Kono, 43, at 1.4%, and 
former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki, 69, at 0.8%. 
 
Respondents were also asked if they thought the next prime 
minister should pay homage at Yasukuni Shrine. In response to 
this question, 50.6% answered "no," with 29.5% saying "yes." 
Respondents were further asked if they thought Koizumi should pay 
homage at Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15 this year. In response, "no" 
accounted for 51.7%, with "yes" reaching 32.1%. 
 
The approval rating for the Koizumi cabinet was 42.6%, down from 
the 48.8% rating in the last survey. The disapproval rating was 
 
TOKYO 00002964  004 OF 009 
 
 
40.7%, The margin between the approval and disapproval ratings 
has narrowed to 1.9 points. In the breakdown of public support 
for political parties, the LDP fell 6.3 points to 35.8%. 
Meanwhile, Ichiro Ozawa, 64, is at the helm of the leading 
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto), and his party 
rose 4.5 points to 21.9% in public support. 
 
(3) What underlies relations between Abe and Fukuda as rivals for 
LDP presidency (Part 4) - Diplomacy toward US, China: Playing up 
personal connections with current and former ambassadors 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Full) 
May 29, 2006 
 
On April 18, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe telephoned US 
Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer. This phone call was 
intended for Abe to make a push to realize a meeting between 
abductee Megumi Yokota's mother Sakie and US President George W. 
Bush when Sakie visited the United States. Abe also told his 
longtime American friend, Deputy National Security Advisor Jack 
Crouch: "The meeting, if realized, could be taken as a symbolic 
event in Japan-US cooperation on the abduction issue." An 
official at the Japanese Embassy in the United States gave this 
testimony: "Mr. Schieffer's direct call to the president in 
response to Mr. Abe's request was pivotal in realizing that 
meeting." 
 
Abe's response to the abduction issue has boosted his public 
support as a candidate to succeed Prime Minister Koizumi. 
Schieffer has shown an interest in the abduction issue and 
recently visited an abduction site in Niigata Prefecture. The 
ambassador has apparently been an important channel for Abe to 
make contact with the Bush administration. 
 
Meanwhile, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda in a 
speech delivered on May 27 criticized Koizumi's repeated visits 
to Yasukuni Shrine: "It's unwise to have a quarrel (in the area 
of foreign affairs)." The implication is that how to rebuild the 
currently icy relations with China will be an issue in the LDP 
presidential election. 
 
Fukuda's China connections are symbolized by his ties with 
Chinese Ambassador to Japan Wang Yi. Last October, a China-Japan 
friendship concert was given at the Tokyo International Forum. 
Participants in the concert included Japanese singers who are 
popular in China, such as Risa Natsukawa and Noriko Sakai. Some 
5,000 persons attended, most of whom were Chinese living in 
Japan. In the audience were Chinese Ambassador Wang Yi and his 
wife and Fukuda and his wife. A Chinese daily for Chinese 
residents living in Japan gave big play to the photo of Fukuda 
and his wife. Wang and former Chinese Ambassador to Japan Wu 
Dawei put high confidence in Fukuda. Veteran Diet members 
critical of Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine are looking 
forward to Fukuda's announcement that he will run in the 
presidential race. 
 
Diplomacy has rarely been a campaign issue in past LDP 
presidential elections. But the upcoming election seems somewhat 
different. How to advance Asia diplomacy will likely be made an 
issue for the first time in the 34 years since the so-called 
"Kaku-Fuku (former Prime Ministers Kakuei Tanaka and Takeo 
Fukuda) war" in 1972, when Tanaka and Fukuda locked horns over 
the question of whether to normalize diplomatic ties with China. 
 
TOKYO 00002964  005 OF 009 
 
 
However, it is not safe to simply conclude that Abe stresses 
strong ties with the US while Fukuda puts emphasis on relations 
with China. There is also a competition between them over their 
personal connections. 
 
Evidence of this was seen in Fukuda's visit this month (May) to 
the US. During his stay in the US, Fukuda, who does not presently 
hold a cabinet post, was able to meet with key US administration 
officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of 
State Condoleezza Rice. These meetings were realized under the 
auspices of former US Ambassador to Japan Howard Baker, with whom 
Fukuda enjoys a relationship of trust he built while he was in 
office as chief cabinet secretary. Baker invited Fukuda to his 
residence. Fukuda boarded Baker's private jet to visit his 
residence in Tennessee. Looking back on past events, a senior 
Foreign Ministry official commented: "When Japan's foreign policy 
was in chaos during the days of Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka, 
Fukuda served as de facto foreign minister. At the time, things 
were decided between Mr. Fukuda and Mr. Baker." The Bush 
administration's red-carpet treatment toward Fukuda during his 
recent visit to the US helped alter Fukuda's image of tilting 
toward China. 
 
On the other hand, Abe, portrayed as a hard-liner toward China, 
has also kept channels of contact with Beijing. On Feb. 10, Abe 
met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo. Their meeting 
lasted for more than one hour. On Feb. 13, Abe met with Jing 
Dunquan, chairman of the China-Japan Friendship Association. Abe 
frankly told Jing: "Having talks is important for improvement in 
relations. Meetings can help understand the other side well and 
dispel misconceptions." China, in protest against Koizumi's 
visits to Yasukuni Shrine, has refused to hold a summit between 
President Hu Jintao and Koizumi. On the other hand, China has 
kept in contact with the so-called post-Koizumi candidates. For 
instance, a senior Chinese government official met with Abe to 
"candidly exchange in-depth views," according to Vice Minister 
Dai. 
 
(4) Hurdles still in store for Japan's early troop pullout from 
Iraq 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
May 29, 2006 
 
The government is accelerating international coordination to 
withdraw Ground Self-Defense Force troops currently deployed in 
the southern Iraqi city of Samawah. In the wake of Iraq's recent 
establishment of a permanent government, there are now high hopes 
within the Japanese government for setting about the GSDF's 
pullout as early as June. However, the Iraqi government's new 
cabinet has yet to be fully filled. Iraq cannot be expected to 
recover public security from its ongoing turmoil. There are still 
many hurdles to clear before the GSDF's pullout. 
 
Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, who heads the newly established 
government, has indicated that the multinational force can 
transfer its security powers to Iraq's police forces as early as 
June in the province of Al-Muthanna, which includes Samawah. This 
is why the Japanese government is expecting to recall the GSDF 
troops at an early date. 
 
The government plans to recall the Samawah-based detachment of 
GSDF troops early this fall. If the multinational force's 
 
TOKYO 00002964  006 OF 009 
 
 
security powers are actually transferred to Iraq, the GSDF will 
move up its pullout schedule and will begin its pullout as early 
as late June. The GSDF can also expect to move all its Samawah- 
based troops to Kuwait in July. Britain and Australia also have 
troops in Samawah, so Japan is now coordinating with these two 
countries to withdraw in concert. 
 
The government wants to begin the GSDF pullout in June. This 
timetable, however, is "only based on an optimistic view" that 
everything goes well, according to one government official. The 
present situation in Iraq still does not satisfy government-set 
conditions for the GSDF to pull out. 
 
Japan has made it a general principle to decide on when to 
withdraw the GSDF troops in light of the political process in 
Iraq, the progress of reconstruction, the security situation in 
Iraq, and trends involving other countries' troops. The political 
process is about to meet one of the Japanese government's 
preconditions for the GSDF's withdrawal. However, the Iraqi 
cabinet has yet to appoint some key ministers, including the 
interior minister, who is in charge of public security. 
 
Samawah is said to be comparatively safe. In mid-May, however, 
local police came under attack. Maliki's statement is apparently 
considerate of Iraqis who do not want the multinational force to 
stay on. 
 
In the meantime, what is most likely to affect the timing for 
Japan's troop pullout is the United States, which wants Japan to 
keep its troops deployed in Iraq. 
 
"Japan will continue its assistance with Iraq's nation-rebuilding 
efforts after the GSDF's withdrawal from Samawah," Prime Minister 
Junichiro Koizumi has reiterated. This is a message addressed not 
only to the Iraqi government but also to the US government. 
 
Japan has already announced its commitment to loans worth 
approximately 80 billion yen for Iraq. The Air Self-Defense Force 
will continue its airlift missions. From now on, the ASDF will 
extend its transport flights to the capital city of Baghdad and 
also to that country's northern district city of Arbil, where the 
United Nations will set up an office for Iraq assistance. In 
addition, Japan is also coordinating with the United Nations and 
the United States to conduct airlift support for them. 
 
However, there is still no favorable answer from the US 
government in spite of the Japanese government's arrangement for 
the GSDF's pullout. 
 
Koizumi will visit the United States in late June. On that 
occasion, Koizumi will exchange views with President Bush about 
Iraq. However, one Japanese government source explained that Bush 
would treat Koizumi as a state guest to thank him for Japan's 
dispatch of troops to Iraq. "So," the source added, "it would be 
hard for the prime minister to say Japan will pull its troops 
out." It still seems difficult for Japan to recall its troops. 
 
(5) Taro Kono issues manifesto for 2006 LDP presidential election 
that calls for consumption tax revenues to cover basic pensions, 
establishment of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
May 28, 2006 
 
TOKYO 00002964  007 OF 009 
 
 
 
Taro Kono, senior vice minister of justice, finalized on May 27 a 
manifesto (a set of campaign pledges) for running in the Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election slated for 
September. The main features of the manifesto include pension 
system reform, the transfer of compulsory education authority to 
municipalities, and the establishment of a Foreign Affairs and 
Trade Ministry. He will formally issue the manifesto in early 
June. 
 
Although Kono has yet to obtain support from 20 lawmakers, the 
number required if he is to run in the election, his manifesto 
will likely activate policy debate in the LDP. 
 
As part of "fundamental pension reform," the manifesto advocates 
covering the basic portion of the system by consumption-tax 
revenue resources, abolishing the system of paying national 
pension premiums, and covering the proportional compensation 
portion by a scheme of accumulating enough money to pay out the 
benefits. 
 
In the foreign policy area, a Ministry of Foreign and Trade 
Affairs would be established by merging the Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. 
Ambassadors to the United States, China, Britain, the European 
Union, Russia, South Korea, India the United Nations should be 
political appointees. The manifesto urges the establishment of an 
intelligence system, and it also calls for recognizing the 
Palestinians as a state. 
 
The manifesto underscores the need for decentralization of 
education. It calls on the Education Ministry to transfer its 
compulsory education authority to municipalities, taking charge 
of implementing national achievement tests, as well as compulsory 
education expenses for remote areas and islands. The manifesto 
stipulates that the status and treatment of teachers and the 
right to decide education programs would be given to the members 
of municipalities' education boards. 
 
Regarding political reform, the manifesto writes that in order to 
strengthen cabinet leadership the ruling camp's pre-screening of 
bills should be abolished. It also advocates that "establishment 
law" of ministries and agencies would be scrapped, and the 
cabinet would be in charge of employment, assignments, transfers 
and assessment of national public servants. 
 
Main points of Kono manifesto 
 
LDP reform 
 
    Factions to will not be allowed to involve themselves in 
appointments of government and party posts. 
    Diet members ejected from the party cannot rejoin it. 
 
Education 
 
    Transfer the compulsory education authority to local 
municipalities. The Education Ministry would be in charge of 
national achievement exams and compulsory education for remote 
areas and islands. The education board members of municipalities 
would decide on the status and treatment of teachers and 
education programs. 
    Eighty percent of the revenues from homeland and residential 
 
TOKYO 00002964  008 OF 009 
 
 
taxes would go to local governments, which are the permanent 
addresses of residents, and 20% of the tax revenues would go to 
local government for compulsory education. 
    Improve and expand the scholarship system. Enable 
individuals to be self-sufficient after graduating from college. 
Lower the adult age to 18. 
 
Substantial pension reform 
 
    Cover the basic pension potion by consumption tax revenue. 
Compensate those 65 or older whose income level is lower than a 
an a 
certain level. Abolish the government pension plan, the system to 
pay premium payments, and the Social Insurance Agency. Funds for 
the proportional benefits part would be collected from those who 
are up to 65 years old. A certain percentage of annual income 
would be collected as pension resources. 
 
Medical services 
 
    Make it obligatory that cancer victims be registered. 
Substantially hike the tobacco tax rate in order to use the money 
for medical expenditures. 
 
Foreign policy 
 
    Reorganize the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry 
of Economy, Trade and Industry to establish a Foreign Affairs and 
Trade Ministry. Ambassadors to the US, China, Britain, the EU, 
Russia, South Korea, India and the UN would be political 
appointees. 
    Rebuild Japan-US relations that are growing weaker. Revise 
the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). 
    Aim to bring in one million group tourists from China. 
    Set up an intelligence organization. 
ion. 
    Reduce the ODA budget as much as possible and focus only on 
specific projects. 
    Recognize the Palestinians as a state and make a commitment 
to the Middle East peace process. 
 
Political reform 
 
    Abolish the ruling camp's prescreening of bills. 
    Remove the ministries' establishment law and lay down 
cabinet authority. 
    The cabinet would employ, assign, and transfer national 
public servants. 
    Abolish the seniority-based appointments of management posts 
and introduce a political appointee system for certain-level 
posts and above. 
 
Activation of Diet debate 
 
    Set rules for bills unnecessary to submit, deliberations and 
voting. 
 
Decentralization 
 
    Transfer financial resources to local governments. 
 
Environment 
 
 
TOKYO 00002964  009 OF 009 
 
 
    Utilize bio-energy. 
 
(6) METI new energy strategy presents numerical targets in five 
sections, including cut in degree of dependence on oil to 40% 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
Evening, May 29, 2006 
 
The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) yesterday 
esterday 
morning submitted its new state energy strategy, a set of 
guidelines for new energy policy, to the Study Committee for 
National Resources and Energy, an advisory panel to the METI 
minister. METI in the new strategy reiterates the need to 
reinforce its energy security efforts given the intensifying 
global competition for securing resources and presents numerical 
targets in five sections, with 2030 set as the target year. 
 
The five targets are: (1) reducing the degree of dependence on 
oil - the ratio of oil consumption to all energy consumed in 
Japan - from the present 50% to 40%; (2) improve the nation's 
entire energy efficiency by 30% as part of energy-saving efforts; 
(3) cut the degree of dependence on oil in the transport area, 
including autos, from the current 98% to 80%; (4) increase the 
ratio of nuclear power generation to total power generation from 
the current 29% to at least 30% to 40%; and (5) raise the ratio 
of independently developed oil to imports from the current 15% to 
40%. METI plans to review the government's basic energy plan and 
put the new strategy into practice this fall or later. 
 
As measures to promote the use of new energy resources, the 
strategy also calls for raising the maximum rate of the allowable 
volume of bioethanol fuel mixed with gasoline from the present 3% 
to 10% in 2020. It also includes Japan's commitment to promoting 
energy-saving policies in Asia as a whole. 
 
Given sharp increases in demand for energy in China and India, 
the balance between supply and demand has become strained in 
recent years. The US and European countries have reviewed their 
mid- to long-term energy plans, for instance, by diversifying 
energy suppliers. Japan has also been urged to come up with a new 
strategy to secure stable oil supplies, as the nation is wholly 
dependent on imports. 
 
SCHIEFFER