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Viewing cable 06TOKYO2873, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/24/06

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TOKYO2873 2006-05-25 00:10 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO6735
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #2873/01 1450010
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 250010Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2451
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA//J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/COMPATWING ONE KAMI SEYA JA
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 8993
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 6368
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9589
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 6317
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 7528
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 2433
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 8611
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0411
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 002873 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/24/06 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) JCG-proposed six-nation drill to start later in month; First 
training joined by Japan, China, South Korea, Russia, US and 
Canada; Cooperation on the sea of sources of contention - Sea of 
Japan and East China Sea 
 
(2) Japanese, Chinese foreign ministers meet for first time in a 
year, look for ways to avoid causing more strains in bilateral 
relations, but gap left to be bridged 
 
(3) Whether important bills on conspiracy, national referendum, 
and education reform will clear Diet during current session 
remains uncertain 
 
(4) Mapping out measures to cut government expenditures bound to 
encounter complications 
 
(5) FTC, prosecutors to toughen crackdowns on bid-rigging 
throughout nation, by fully imposing amended AML 
 
(6) 2006 LDP presidential race (Part 1): One-on-one battle 
between Fukuda and Abe expected 
 
(7) Editorial: Full preparations necessary for SDF to withdraw 
from Samawah safely 
 
(8) Why the Foreign Ministry is all upset about Muneo Suzuki's 
visit to the northern territories after five years 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) JCG-proposed six-nation drill to start later in month; First 
training joined by Japan, China, South Korea, Russia, US and 
Canada; Cooperation on the sea of sources of contention - Sea of 
Japan and East China Sea 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top Play) (Almost full) 
Evening, May 24, 2006 
 
The Japan Coast Guard (JCG) and the maritime safety authorities 
of China, South Korea, Russia, the US and Canada have agreed to 
conduct drills before the end of this month aimed to prevent 
weapons of mass destruction from being transported into the East 
China Sea or the Sea of Japan. Bilateral drills for marine 
salvage and as a measure against smuggling have already been 
carried out with South Korea or Russia. However, this will be the 
first multinational drill involving major North Pacific coastal 
nations. Border-crossing cooperation will move into high gear in 
this oceanic area where sources of contention are rife, including 
over the Takeshima islets issue and the development of gas fields 
in the East China Sea. 
 
Among similar drills is the Proliferation Security Initiative 
(PSI) against the use of weapons of mass destruction, which 
President Bush has proposed, following the 9-11 terrorist attacks 
on the US. However, since the PSI targets North Korea and some 
other countries, China and South Korea are not taking part in it. 
 
The JCG has proposed the joint drill with the aim of securing the 
safety of maritime transportation route from the North Pacific to 
the Indian Ocean. Coordination to materialize multinational 
drills has been undertaken at the top-level meetings of the North 
 
TOKYO 00002873  002 OF 012 
 
 
Pacific maritime safety authorities, which has the six nations as 
members. The JCG's diplomatic effort has apparently come to 
fruition. 
 
Major drills on the menu includes security drills to be carried 
out from May 27 or 28 through June 1 in the oceanic area from 
near Shanghai, China, to Vladivostok, Russia, and multi-purpose 
drills for maritime salvage and fire extinguishing to be carried 
out off Pusan, South Korea on June 7 and 8. Five countries, 
excluding Canada, are expected to dispatch a total of about 20 
patrol ships to the areas. 
 
In a simulation of a security drill, China will reject a US coast 
guard ship that is acting as a ship carrying weapons of mass 
destruction entering a Shanghai port and then track the ship 
fleeing in the direction of Russia. At the request of China, 
South Korea, Japan and Russia will pursue the ship fleeing on 
their exclusive economic zones (EEZ) in relays for five days. The 
JCG will also raid and search the ship. 
 
The JCG mapped out this scenario. It charted a flight route along 
the median lines of the participating countries, taking into 
consideration the fact that the EEZs claimed by them are 
different. All participating countries agreed on the idea. Russia 
made the chart to be used by the six countries. Only two colors 
were used just to differentiate the sea from the land so that the 
chart will cause no territorial problem. 
 
(2) Japanese, Chinese foreign ministers meet for first time in a 
year, look for ways to avoid causing more strains in bilateral 
relations, but gap left to be bridged 
 
MAINICHI (Top play) (Full) 
Evening, May 24, 2006 
 
Takuji Nakata, Doha 
 
Foreign Minister Taro Aso, now visiting Qatar, met with Chinese 
Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing at a hotel in Doha City late 
yesterday (early hours of today, Japan time). In the meeting, Li 
reiterated criticism of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits 
to Yasukuni Shrine, describing them as "a political obstacle," 
and warned that a successor prime minister should not visit the 
shrine. On the other hand, the two foreign ministers agreed on 
the need for promoting cooperation and exchanges in such areas as 
the economy, culture, and security. By continuing and enhancing 
bilateral dialogues other than the one at the top level until 
Koizumi steps down this fall, the two countries now appear to 
have been able to stem bilateral relations from suffering any 
further strains. 
 
The Japan-China foreign ministerial meeting took place for the 
first time in about one year and was the first one for Aso to 
attend since assuming the post of foreign minister. 
 
Speaking of the so-called Yasukuni issue, Li criticized: "The 
fact that the Japanese leader pays homage at Yasukuni Shrine that 
enshrines Class-A war criminals along with other war dead hurts 
the sentiments of the Chinese people." 
 
Aso told Li about Japan's position: "Visiting the shrine is to 
pay respect and offer gratitude to the war dead." As to whether 
he would visit the shrine, Aso said: "I'll make a proper decision 
 
TOKYO 00002873  003 OF 012 
 
 
based on my principles and in consideration of my official 
capacity." 
 
On gas field development in the East China Sea, both foreign 
ministers confirmed that they would give a boost to senior 
working level talks. They also agreed that the two countries 
would discuss the introduction of a system of consultation and 
notification between relevant government agencies of the two 
countries, for instance, the Japan Coast Guard and the Chinese 
Navy. The purpose is to avoid unforeseen incidents at sea. 
 
Aso stated, "We welcome a peaceful rise in China," but at the 
same time he expressed concerns about China's military buildup: 
"China needs to make its national defense policy transparent and 
to work for confidence building with Japan." Li emphasized: "As 
evidenced by the Great Wall of China, the purpose is for 
defense." The two foreign ministers agreed on a plan to resume 
security dialogues between the two countries - which have been 
interrupted since February 2004 - by the end of the year. 
 
They also agreed to work together to bring about an early 
resumption of the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear issue. 
Aso sought cooperation from China to deal with the abduction 
issue, and in answering Aso's request, Li said, "We understand 
the importance of the issue." 
 
After the meeting, Aso told the press: "We exchanged views 
frankly and effectively. I've felt that the meeting this time has 
now paved the path for Japan-China relations to move toward 
improvement." 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe: "Extremely meaningful" 
 
During a press conference this morning, Chief Cabinet Secretary 
Shinzo Abe referred to the Japan-China foreign ministerial 
meeting held for the first time in one year and gave high marks 
to it: "It's extremely important to have talks with China at the 
foreign ministerial level. Such a meeting is extremely meaningful 
so as to frankly exchange views on issues lying between the two 
countries." When asked about the Chinese side's renewing its 
criticism of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to 
Yasukuni Shrine, Abe stressed: "In order to build a mature 
relationship, it is necessary for both of us to recognize and 
respect the other side's thinking and the differences. We must 
not close the door of dialogue." 
 
(3) Whether important bills on conspiracy, national referendum, 
and education reform will clear Diet during current session 
remains uncertain 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) 
May 24, 2006 
 
With less than one month left in the current Diet session that 
runs until June 18, the schedule of deliberations on important 
bills has become even tighter. The ruling coalition intends to 
give priority to deliberations on an administrative reform 
promotion bill, aiming at enacting it into law on May 26. It has 
postponed to next week or later a vote in the House of 
Representatives Committee on Judicial Affairs on a bill to amend 
the organized crime law that would make "conspiracy" a crime. 
Since no prospect is in sight for consultations with the 
opposition parties to modify the bill, whether the bill will 
 
TOKYO 00002873  004 OF 012 
 
 
clear the Diet during the current session is uncertain. It also 
will be difficult to pass a bill amending the Basic Education Law 
without extending the Diet session. The ruling camp is likely to 
be forced to walk a precarious tightrope in the weeks ahead. 
 
In a press conference yesterday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo 
Abe expressed his hope for an early vote on the bill to revise 
the organized crime law, saying, "Should the contents of the bill 
become well-known to the public, the mood for taking a vote will 
naturally heighten." 
 
Unable to read the prime minister's mind 
 
With Lower House Speaker Yohei Kono's arbitration on May 19, the 
ruling and opposition camps agreed to continue deliberations, but 
Yukio Hatoyama, secretary general of the largest opposition 
party, Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) asserted, "The ruling 
coalition should accept our bill with no changes." Koya Nishikawa 
of the LDP said, "We cannot make any more concessions." 
 
A senior LDP Diet Affairs Committee member stated positively, 
"The bill will never clear the Diet without extending the 
session." If the Upper House requires as much time for 
deliberations as did the Lower House, it will be impossible to 
pass the bill before the end of the current session. The 
situation is that the ruling camp has yet to decide when to take 
a vote on the bill since it cannot read the real intentions of 
Prime Minister Koizumi, who has repeatedly made remarks that he 
is reluctant to extend the session. Some LDP members are becoming 
increasingly dissatisfied with Koizumi's response. 
 
Deepening confrontation between LDP and Minshuto 
 
Heightening confrontation between the LDP and Minshuto is 
affecting deliberations on a medical reform bill and other bills. 
The Upper House Committee on Health, Labor and Welfare launched 
deliberations yesterday, but Minshuto refused to attend the 
session. The members from the ruling parties and the Japanese 
Communist Party conducted deliberations. The ruling camp intends 
to continue deliberations without Minshuto lawmakers in an 
attempt to get the bill through the Diet before the end of the 
current session. 
 
The Lower House Special Committee will start on the 24th 
deliberations on the bill revising the Basic Education Law with 
attendance of Koizumi. Minshuto submitted its own bill to the 
Lower House yesterday. The committee will conduct deliberations 
on both bills. Minshuto incorporates more conservative words than 
those of the government and ruling camp in its bill, aiming at 
rocking the LDP. The opposition party also intends to prevent the 
government-sponsored bill from clearing the Diet, calling for 
conducting deliberations thoroughly. 
 
Many ruling camp members call for extension of the current Diet 
session 
 
Asked by reporters about the government's bill yesterday, Koizumi 
responded, "If the deliberations are conducted thoroughly, the 
bill will pass through the Diet before the end of the current 
session." The dominant view in the ruling camp is that in order 
to pass the bill the session should be extended until the end of 
July. Negotiations broke down between the ruling camp and 
Minshuto on the joint submission of a bill on referendum for 
 
TOKYO 00002873  005 OF 012 
 
 
amending the Constitution. The ruling LDP and its coalition 
partner, New Komeito intend to submit a bill to the current Diet 
session on their won as early as May 26. Minshuto also plans to 
present its own bill to the Diet. The prospects for the bills 
remain uncertain. 
 
(4) Mapping out measures to cut government expenditures bound to 
encounter complications 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Full) 
May 23, 2006 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Policy Research Council Chairman 
Nakagawa, who also serves as the chairman of the LDP's Spending 
Reform Project Team, presented in a speech on May 22 specific 
plans to cut civil servant employment costs, including a 
substantial cut in retirement benefits paid to local 
administrative chiefs and the abolition of subsidies paid from 
public funds to the mutual aid association for local public 
servants. Since public servants employment costs can be cut 
without cost to the Japanese people, as State Minister for 
Financial, Economic and Fiscal Policy Yosano put it, the more 
they are cut, the more people will appreciate it. Some are 
beginning to take the view that the settlement line for the 
package reform of expenditures and revenues is to have taxpayers 
tolerate a lenient cut in social security expenses in return for 
slashing public servants' salaries. 
 
The Project Team has looked into ways to cut expenditures in five 
areas, including social security, public works, public servants 
and personnel costs since April. In particular, the panel has 
almost annually reformed the medical services and pension 
systems. Even so, spending in the two areas account for 
approximately 40% of general spending (20.5 trillion yen in 
fiscal 2006). Such spending is bound to continue to expand. In 
order to obtain understanding of the public for a hike in the 
consumption tax, the government has no other choice but to cut 
voluminous social security expenses. However, since a medical 
services reform bill is now under deliberation, it is difficult 
to discuss a cut in social security expenses, which will lead to 
a further increase in the burden shared by the public. Such being 
the circumstance, which items should be made subject to cuts have 
yet to be set. 
 
The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) has approved of 
a policy of constraining public works expenditures to an amount 
3% below the preceding year's level over the next five years. 
However, the prevailing view in the LDP is that it is not 
possible to support a uniform cut. If the margin of a cut in 
social security expenditures is small, objections will likely 
come with people resenting the prospect that public works alone 
will become the victim of cost-cutting. 
 
Though the LDP is determined to use a cut in public servants' 
salaries as an escape, the package reform of expenditures and 
revenues could disintegrate, if it fails to drastically cut 
social security expenses. 
 
(5) FTC, prosecutors to toughen crackdowns on bid-rigging 
throughout nation, by fully imposing amended AML 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 3) (Slightly abridged) 
May 24, 2006 
 
TOKYO 00002873  006 OF 012 
 
 
 
The Osaka District Public Prosecutors Office Special 
Investigation Unit yesterday arrested seven company employees, 
including department heads, on suspicion of rigging bids on the 
construction of sewage-treatment plants. The incident has once 
again brought into the open the reality of a situation in which 
leading companies are rigging bids over large public works. Since 
the steel bridge bid-rigging case, in which the Fair Trade 
Commission (FTC) filed an accusation last May, the FTC and public 
prosecutors have strengthened efforts to crack down on bid 
rigging. They are determined to root out the practice throughout 
the country by fully applying the revised Anti-Monopoly Law, 
which grants the FTC the authority to investigate AML violations. 
 
The bridge construction bid-rigging case, which is reportedly the 
biggest bid-rigging case in history, revealed that sales 
personnel of Japan's leading companies, including Mitsubishi 
Heavy Industries and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries, were 
involved in bureaucrat-led bid rigging in conspiracy with senior 
officials of the former Japan Highway Public Corporation, the 
sponsor of the projects. The number of manufacturers indicted on 
charges of violating the AML reached 26. 
 
Of the 11 companies charged with bid rigging over the 
construction of sewage-treatment plants, five are on trial for 
engaging in bid rigging for the construction of steel bridges. 
Some of these companies had also come under scrutiny on suspicion 
of engaging in bid rigging over the construction of water gates 
and tunnel ventilation equipment. The FTC conducted on-the-spot 
inspections of these bid-rigging cases. The FTC and public 
prosecutors have made clear their determination to urge companies 
to observe regulations more strictly, as a senior public 
prosecutor of the Supreme Public Prosecutors' Office put it. 
 
In bid-rigging cases concerning projects sponsored by the New 
Tokyo International Airport Authority (now Narita International 
Airport) and the Defense Facilities Administration Agency, the 
FTC and public prosecutors brought employees in charge at heavy 
electric machinery and air conditioner makers and general 
contractors in a summary indictment on charges of conducting 
collusive tendering. The case has revealed that bid rigging is 
rampant in every sector. 
 
The FTC and public prosecutors will toughen their efforts to 
crack down on bid rigging, based on the revised AML, which went 
into effect this January. The revised law grants the FTC 
investigative authority, which enables it to search companies 
involved in rigged bidding and seize evidence. A system of 
reducing administrative surcharges imposed on companies that 
cooperate with the FTC by voluntarily reporting unfair trade 
practices has also been introduced. Before the law was revised, 
only the Tokyo High Public Prosecutors Office was authorized to 
indict AML offenders, but now any district public prosecutors 
office can do so. 
 
Bid rigging over the construction of sewage-treatment plants is 
the first case in which the FTC has exercised its authority to 
investigate AML violations. The Osaka District Public Prosecutors 
Office will be in charge of investigation. The case reportedly 
involved monetary compensation to contain oppositions to the 
construction of such facilities. On May 17, the special 
investigation unit arrested one broker, who acted as a mediator, 
on suspicion of blackmail. This broker (72), an executive of a 
 
TOKYO 00002873  007 OF 012 
 
 
consulting company, allegedly extorted approximately 16 million 
yen from companies that were involved in the bid rigging. He was 
active mainly in western Japan. He reportedly has influence on 
both manufacturers and local governments. The Special 
Investigation Unit is keen to discern the flow of funds from the 
involved companies. It is expected to pursue this executive as 
well as the arrested seven employees. 
 
(6) 2006 LDP presidential race (Part 1): One-on-one battle 
between Fukuda and Abe expected 
 
SANKEI (Page 4) (Abridged slightly) 
May 24, 2006 
 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, 64, has rejected the idea of 
making factional coordination for the Liberal Democratic Party's 
presidential election, which is only four months away. Former 
Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, 68, who heads the largest faction in 
the LDP with two potential successors to Koizumi -- Chief Cabinet 
Secretary Shinzo Abe, 51, and former Chief Cabinet Secretary 
 
SIPDIS 
Yasuo Fukuda, 69 -- has also revealed his intention to give up 
fielding a single candidate. Although there is an observation 
that candidates have effectively been narrowed down to Abe and 
Fukuda, Foreign Minister Taro Aso, 65, and Finance Minister 
Sadakazu Tanigaki, 61, are determined to turn the tables. This is 
the first installment in a series of reports on the LDP 
presidential race in motion. 
 
Abe called on Mori at his office near the Diet building on the 
afternoon of May 17. Mori moaned to Abe about loud support for 
Abe by Ichita Yamamoto, 48, a junior member of the Mori faction. 
 
Mori's true intention was to determine Abe's preparedness to run 
in the race. Abe gave an evasive answer to Mori's question. Abe 
is also believed to have explained his position that not running 
in the race would disappoint the expectations of his supporters. 
 
Mori still holds a faint hope for fielding a single candidate. 
Abe and Fukuda are often compared in terms of Asia policy and a 
generational change. Despite Mori's hope for a compromise between 
the two, speculation is growing that Abe and Fukuda will face off 
in the LDP poll. 
 
When Mori met on May 22 with former Singaporean Prime Minister 
Lee Kuan Yew, who was also scheduled to hold talks with Abe and 
Fukuda, Mori asked for Lee's ratings on the two. 
 
After the Golden Week holiday period, Fukuda made a weeklong 
visit to the United States where he was able to hold talks with 
some 50 prominent figures, including Vice President Dick Cheney - 
- red-carpet treatment to someone not holding any key government 
or party post. The visit proved fruitful for Fukuda, who aimed at 
exchanging views on America's Asia strategy and other matters. 
People connected with the US Congress wanted to know if Fukuda 
would run for the LDP presidency. 
 
But Fukuda always told them: "I didn't say anything about seeking 
the presidency. The media made that up." 
 
A Mori faction member supportive of Fukuda took this view: "Mr. 
Fukuda's US trip was a success. The White House has high regards 
for him, and that's why he was able to accomplish more than just 
seeing US congressional members." 
 
TOKYO 00002873  008 OF 012 
 
 
 
Washington's red-carpet treatment is not completely unconnected 
with Fukuda's growing popularity. In the latest opinion survey 
conducted by Fuji-TV's "Hodo 2001," the support rate for Abe 
marked 36.2% and that for Fukuda 29.2%, with the difference 
shrinking by 28 points to 7 points from January. 
 
The trend is ascribable to the emergence of a mood putting higher 
priority to experience than to youthfulness with the appearance 
of Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) President Ichiro Ozawa, 
64, and Fukuda's diplomatic stance attaching importance to China. 
A growing likelihood for Fukuda's one-on-one battle with Abe 
following Mori's announcement to give up a single candidate is 
another reason. 
 
Fukuda does not seem eager to run in the race, at least on the 
surface. His father, former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, launched 
the Mori faction (or Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai). Fukuda wants to 
ride the crest of growing calls for his candidacy rather than to 
come forward independently and split up the faction. Such 
scenario is being mentioned in the LDP. 
 
Before leaving for the United States, Fukuda and his wife visited 
the home in Tokyo of the late Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi to 
offer incense sticks ahead of the seventh anniversary of his 
death. The Obuchi family sensed Fukuda's eagerness for the LDP's 
top job. 
 
Abe calmly attributed Fukuda's growing popularity to his track 
records, including his service as chief cabinet secretary in the 
Koizumi administration. But a junior member close to Abe thinks 
he is alarmed by Fukuda's popularity. 
 
Fukuda served as chief cabinet secretary and Abe as his deputy 
for three years from the closing days of the Mori administration 
to the beginning of the Koizumi administration. Reportedly 
discord grew stronger between the two during that period. 
 
Fukuda and Abe again locked horns fiercely over whether Koizumi 
should visit Pyongyang to collect family members of repatriated 
abductees following his first surprise visit to North Korea in 
ΒΆ2002. Since Fukuda became the Mori faction's representative 
secretary general in the fall of 2004, Abe has rarely attended 
 
SIPDIS 
the faction's general meetings. 
 
Being the Koizumi cabinet's spokesman, it has been difficult for 
Abe to comment on the LDP poll. But he has begun mentioning 
correcting the social disparity and relations with China 
apparently with the LDP presidency in mind. A Mori faction member 
supporting Abe noted: "Only a few faction members, including Mr. 
Seishiro Eto, 65, have made it clear that they would throw 
support behind Mr. Fukuda. I think that of the 87 members, 80% 
are supporting Mr. Abe and 20% Mr. Fukuda." 
 
Views of members of other factions are mixed. Mid-level and 
veteran members pinning hopes on Fukuda and who are also eager to 
become winners in the next administration are carefully 
monitoring the trend without expressing their support for Fukuda 
outright. 
 
Rumor has it that a fifth person will join the race along with 
Abe, Fukuda, Aso, and Tanigaki. Aso and former Secretary General 
Koichi Kato, 66, also pointed to the possibility of another 
 
TOKYO 00002873  009 OF 012 
 
 
candidate. 
 
Such persons as former Vice President Taku Yamasaki, 69, State 
Minister in Charge of Economic and Fiscal Policy Kaoru Yosano, 
67, and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Toshihiro Nikai, 67, 
are being mentioned as possible candidates. 
 
An LDP executive predicted: "A large number of candidates would 
reduce Abe's chances for winning a majority, resulting in a 
runoff." A veteran Fukuda supporter took this view: "If a runoff 
occurred between the top two contenders, many would vote for 
Fukuda to score a come-from-behind victory." 
 
It has been a half-century since Abe's grandfather, Nobusuke 
Kishi, won most but failed to win a majority in the first voting 
and was eventually defeated by his runner-up, Tanzan Ishibashi, 
who joined hands in the second ballot with the person who came in 
third in the first voting in the election in 1956. Will Abe be 
able to achieve a victory in the first ballot? 
 
(7) Editorial: Full preparations necessary for SDF to withdraw 
from Samawah safely 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
May 24, 2006 
 
Following the inauguration of the formal Iraqi government, the 
focus of attention has now shifted to when and how coalition 
forces will withdraw from Iraq after security responsibilities 
are handed over to the Iraqi government. 
 
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki met with visiting British Prime 
Minister Blair and said that the security responsibility in 
Samawah, in which Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) troops have 
been stationed, would be transferred from the British and 
Australian militaries to Iraqi security forces in June, at the 
earliest. 
 
If matters move smoothly, as envisioned by Iraq's prime minister, 
Japan will be able to pull GSDF troops out of Iraq possibly in 
July, together with British and Australian troops. 
 
About 500 troops in 10th SDF rotation are about to enter Samawah. 
Should the government formally decide to withdraw troops in the 
near future, they will be the last troops stationed in Samawah. 
 
In its basic plan for SDF dispatch to Iraq - adopted at a cabinet 
meeting last December, the government set these conditions for 
withdrawing SDF troops: (1) progress in the political process, 
such as holding of national assembly elections and establishing a 
full-scale government; (2) the local security situation; and (3) 
the state of activities by coalition forces, including British 
and Australian troops, and changes in the composition of the 
forces. 
 
The new Iraqi government was finally launched nearly six months 
later than scheduled, and the new prime minister referred to 
handing over security responsibilities in Samawah to Iraqi 
security forces. This means that GSDF troops in Samawah will soon 
start a process leading to their withdrawal. 
 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, however, has yet to specify 
when Japan will bring its troops back to Japan, only saying: "We 
 
TOKYO 00002873  010 OF 012 
 
 
will make a judgment from a comprehensive viewpoint." Chief 
Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe has also cautiously taken the 
remarks by the new Iraqi prime minister, commenting: "No one can 
predict what would happen in the future." 
 
The government is nervous about SDF withdrawal, because risk may 
be involved, for instance, an attack by armed insurgents. Dutch 
troops were attacked on their way from Samawah. 
 
Samawah is one of the most stable areas in Iraq, but in many 
other areas in Iraq, attacks by terrorists or insurgents have 
often taken place. There was a case in which a shell was fired at 
the SDF camp. They must stay alert. 
 
GSDF troops employ many local citizens for work to repair roads 
and public facilities. There is a project that involves employing 
1,000 local residents a day. Local residents will be unable to 
get jobs should SDF troops be pulled out. It therefore is 
necessary for Japan to work out some measures so that local 
residents will not be left dissatisfied and disgusted. 
 
Japan also must let local residents know that itwill continue to 
make utmost efforts to reconstruct their nation by constructing 
thermal power plants and other projects under its official 
development assistance (ODA) program even after pulling out SDF 
troops. 
 
Japan plans to have SDF troops leave Iraq in conjunction with the 
withdrawal of British and Australian troops because the Japanese 
troops have been under their protection. The Japanese military 
should make full arrangements with the British and Australian 
militaries. 
 
The government has decided to continue offering airlift services 
by the Air Self-Defense Force even after GSDF troops return home. 
Such airlift services will naturally be carried out under the 
context of humanitarian and rehabilitation assistance based on 
the Iraq Humanitarian Reconstruction Support Special Measures 
Law. 
 
Two years and three months have already passed since the GSDF 
launched humanitarian and reconstruction assistance in Samawah. 
During this period, it was lucky that no incident has befallen 
the Japanese troops. 
 
In order to pull the GSDF out of Iraq safely, Japan must prepare 
a perfect crisis-management system. 
 
(8) Why the Foreign Ministry is all upset about Muneo Suzuki's 
visit to the northern territories after five years 
 
SHUKAN POSUTO (Weekly Post) (Pages 172-173) (Abridged) 
June 2, 2006 
 
Lawmaker Muneo Suzuki visited Japan's northern territories (now 
controlled by Russia) for the first time in five years for four 
days starting on May 19. He joined a group of visitors to the 
islands participating in a no-visa exchange that just started 
this fiscal year (April 1). The Foreign Ministry was greatly 
upset to find out about his trip. A staffer at that ministry 
explains why: 
 
"The no-visa exchange visitors will be accompanied by somebody 
 
TOKYO 00002873  011 OF 012 
 
 
from the Foreign Ministry. When we found out that Mr. Suzuki 
would be in the group, all of the Russia Division staff 
responsible for the exchange said they did not want to go on the 
trip. They expected Mr. Suzuki would bombard them during the tour 
with questions, and that afterward, he would report their every 
move to their boss. He would add a big load to their work. 
Moreover, if they responded poorly to his demands, it would lead 
to more criticism of the Foreign Ministry." 
 
The reason why ministry officials are so nervous is because 
Suzuki has continuously been pursuing the Foreign Ministry in the 
Diet. After he was restored to political life in the last 
election, Muneo has already sent 183 sets of questions to the 
Ministry for it to answer in the Diet. Among them was an inquiry 
about suspicions of secret funds being held by the Japanese 
Embassy in Moscow during the former Soviet Union period. He 
pursued that issue last November in the Diet, but the official 
that he had named, Russia Division Director Kuninori Matsuda did 
not show up. 
 
The same Foreign Ministry source said: 
 
"At that time, Director Matsuda was criticized for ducking his 
responsibility, but this time, most of the Russia Division staff 
were backbiting him, saying that it would be better if the 
division director accompany Suzuki since there were still sore 
feelings left from that incident. There have been some who 
ridiculed Director Matsuda, saying that since he had been exposed 
by Suzuki for acting childish at a posh Japanese restaurant, he 
now had the chance to complain directly to him." 
 
Muneo Suzuki was arrested on the charge of bribery and corruption 
in 2002, but what set off the scandal was the issue of a (foreign 
aid-funded) friendship house built on the northern island of 
Kunashiri. At the time, a Japanese Communist Party lawmaker noted 
that the place was called the "Muneo House," and this sparked 
suspicions about Suzuki. A reporter attached to the Foreign 
Ministry noted: 
 
"In the end, Director Matsuda again ducked responsibility and 
sent an underling to accompany the group. Although the staffers 
of the Russia Division so far have been avoiding Suzuki, even 
absenting themselves from a reception held by the Russian 
ambassador, they cannot escape him now due to the no-visa 
exchange trip." 
 
In addition, what also has the Foreign Ministry bustling about 
has been the Cabinet Office's action. A source in the Foreign 
Ministry had these misgivings: 
 
"It was the Cabinet Office that gave permission to Suzuki at the 
last minute to join the no-visa exchange group.  In dealing with 
the northern territories issue, the Foreign Ministry has handled 
the diplomatic negotiations, and the Cabinet Office has been in 
charge of the northern island reversion movement in Japan, which 
includes handling the petitions of former islanders. But since 
the negotiations to return the islands have been stagnant, the 
Cabinet Office is said to be annoyed at the Foreign Ministry. If 
Suzuki visits the islands, his row with the Foreign Ministry will 
become self-evident. The Cabinet Office's aim seems to have been 
to further stir up the quarrel between the Ministry and Suzuki, 
and thereby grab for itself the lead on northern territorial 
affairs." 
 
TOKYO 00002873  012 OF 012 
 
 
 
SCHIEFFER